Is it game over for the app?
When Steve Jobs introduced the first iPhone in 2007, kickstarting the smartphone revolution, the game-changing device shipped with just a handful of apps made by Apple. There were no software development kits (SDKs) yet for third parties to develop apps, and of course no app store. In early 2008, the door opened for app development and everything changed.
Since then, millions of smartphone apps have been developed for both iPhones and Android devices, and their impact on society has been nothing short of revolutionary.
But is the app economy on its last legs?
The recent explosion of innovation in artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative AI, suggests we may be on the brink of a potential post-app era that could usher in entirely new ways of interacting with our devices and how companies deliver products and services.
The idea that the age of apps is coming to an end is not a new topic. In fact, for over a decade, observers have been arguing that apps (standalone software applications that appear on a screen as an icon and that you must find, open, and interact with) are not the optimal experience.
Some features on your phone don't require you to do this today: you can read push notifications and respond if necessary, without using an app at all. Your device can manage security just by looking at your face. Siri and Google Assistant on Android use voice commands to find and generate results like driving directions or playing music.
While smartwatches, which offer a multitude of non-app features, have not replaced the widespread use of apps, their phenomenal popularity is a clear sign that users are open to new ways of interacting with technology.
Despite these innovations, app usage remains the primary interface between users and their mobile devices.
Smartphones are hugely popular, with over 6 billion in use worldwide. When using their mobile devices, Americans spend 88% of their time using apps, with gaming making up the majority of that time, followed by business, education, and lifestyle uses.
Apps have changed how we consume information and entertainment, buy products, and even find dates. For businesses, apps offer entirely new business channels. Today, any company that doesn't have at least one app is an outlier, and their absence could be costing them dearly in missed opportunities.
How, if at all, could the dominance of standalone installed apps fall from its leading position? One central answer is whether there are better alternatives.
Smartphones and apps have combined common needs into one interface. The list is huge and includes common functions such as getting directions, making payments, playing games, consuming information, taking photos, recording videos, and more. There's no doubt that this transition has been a game changer. Just pick up your smartphone, find or download the app, and you're ready to go.
But what if you didn't have to search for an app and instead your needs could be met with a voice command, or even better, what if your device could learn about you, predict your needs, and address them on your behalf?
Suddenly, apps can seem like an excessive burden. With a device this smart, you don't have to think about which app to use, find it on your device, open it, learn and remember how to use it, and go through a bunch of steps. That way, a lot of overhead is removed. The technology blends into the background and becomes almost invisible.
I'm describing a post-app world driven by increasingly sophisticated AI — a future where our devices are connected to our personal assistants.
For more than 30 years, former Microsoft CEO Bill Gates has written about the future of software and the concept of software-enabled personal assistants, which he calls agents. Now, as advances in AI have brought us to a point where the technology is feasible, his predictions are finally starting to come true. In his words, “You don't need a different app for each task. You just tell your device, in everyday language, what you want it to do. And depending on how much information you share, the software will gain a deeper understanding of your life and be able to respond to you in a personal way.”
In a world without apps, we might not even need smartphones. San Francisco-based startup Humane has developed Ai Pin, a small wearable device worn like a lapel pin, slightly larger than an Apple Airpods charging case, that responds to voice and hand gestures. It doesn't have a screen, but it can project text and images onto a person's hand. The developers claim it has all the functionality of a smartphone, just without the screen. Ai Pin offers a glimpse into what's next and the potential for a whole new market.
There's no doubt that what I'm making here will be disruptive. We live in a world with millions of apps and app developers that generate billions of dollars every year. The post-app, or software agent, world will bring big, and often uncomfortable, changes to such a large, complex industry. It will also force organizations to rethink and reinvent how they engage with their customers. But as times change, more opportunities and innovations are likely to emerge.
We've got a long way to go before this future is fully realized, but when it does, it will change everything about computers and how we interact with the world.
