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The job market will see “massive” disruption as AI becomes more prominent, a professor has warned.
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Many more utopian forecasters say AI could impact millions of jobs.
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Eric Posner argues that there is no safety net to contain the impact of AI.
Eric Posner, a professor at the University of Chicago, said artificial intelligence would transform the job market in the best-case scenario, but there would be no social safety net for workers at risk of being permanently unemployed.
In an op-ed for Project Syndicate, Posner pointed to growing concerns that the labor market will become increasingly reliant on AI, with some researchers predicting that significant It warns that a large number of workers could be replaced by artificial intelligence technology. According to a 2024 study, 90% of workers could have their jobs impacted by AI over the next 10 years, and 9% of workers could be completely replaced by AI.
Some technology commentators say those job losses could be offset by government aid, such as some form of universal basic income.
However, such assistance does not address a key problem posed by an AI-powered workforce, namely that many former employees may suffer psychologically from the perception that they are not contributing to society. It's not being addressed, Posner warned.
“In a society that values work and despises the unemployed and unemployed, a loss of self-respect, meaning, and sense of usefulness is inevitable,” Posner wrote. “Even if taxes and subsidies could sustain jobs that are less valuable than AI replacements, that would simply postpone the day of reckoning.”
The “anti-labor” movement has gained momentum in recent years as Americans, especially Gen Z, seek to avoid exploitation by employers and the harsh labor that characterizes other generations' work experiences. But most employed Americans seem to like their jobs. According to a 2023 Pew Research survey, 51% of American employees say they are satisfied with their jobs overall.
Posner noted that higher unemployment rates are associated with increases in depression, alcoholism, anxiety and other mental health disorders, even in studies that control for income.
He pointed to the “China Shock” that hit the United States in the early 2000s, when a flood of cheap imports from China put about 2 million Americans out of work, according to research by the Cato Institute. The shock was due to an increase in “bad mental health” days in the US, another study found.
“Even if humans are able to adapt to a life of leisure in the long term, the most optimistic predictions about AI productivity suggest that there will be large-scale disruptions in the labor market in the short term, similar to the effects of the China Shock.” “It's possible,” Posner said.
“This will mean significant and, for many, permanent job losses. We cannot be generous enough to protect people from the mental health effects and society from the political chaos that would result from such widespread disappointment and alienation.” There is no social safety net,” he added.
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