Part II – San Bernardino Sun

An Amazon truck arrives at one of the company’s massive fulfillment centers at 4950 Goodman in Eastvale. The company operates his three warehouses of over 1.9 million square feet. Such fulfillment centers prepare orders that are trucked to “last mile” delivery stations for delivery to customers’ homes or businesses. Amazon operates at least 19 regional fulfillment centers, sorting centers and air freight facilities of approximately 13 million square feet, primarily in the Inland Empire. (Photo by Watchara Phomicinda, The Press-Enterprise/SCNG)

Manfred Keil and Sasha Rothstein | | Inland Empire Economic Partnership

Last month, we asked ChatGPT for a quick economic analysis of the Inland Empire. The results weren’t impressive, but we still have work to do.ChatGPT’s answers were mostly untrue.

To test our artificial intelligence (AI) further, we set up another scenario this week. With his economist Manfred Keil, chief of the Inland Empire Economic Partnership (IEEP), on one side of his laptop, we asked his ChatGPT to respond to the conversation as if it were Keil. (I imagined Keil ChatGPT had more bushy hair).

Overall, the results were much more impressive than our last interaction, but there is still room for improvement. For example, in the question below, I asked specifically what Keil would have said. We believe this allows the program to filter out news generated by other forecasters in the region.

This article has an important caveat. Both ChatGPT interactions focused on GPT-3, a third-generation AI program. The parent company has unveiled the next generation of his GPT-4. This new generation of AI has significantly outperformed GPT-3, including passing the bar exam in the top 10%. While we and other economists have not yet tested GPT-4, we expect the program to have the potential to improve performance in economic analysis.

Think of this as a shootout, so divide the conversation into good guys, bad guys, and ugly guys.

good stuff

The answers in this section reflect, for example, what Keil said at last month’s State of the Region conference.

question: What are your thoughts on the current state of the Inland Empire’s economy?

Chat GPT: As an economist, I believe the Inland Empire region has done relatively well economically in recent years. The region has seen consistent growth in employment and output, and a steady decline in unemployment. However, the region still faces several challenges, including relatively high poverty rates, lack of affordable housing, and persistent problems related to air quality and transport infrastructure. Addressing these challenges will require continued efforts by policy makers, businesses and communities. Overall, I am cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook for the Inland Empire and believe the region has good potential for continued growth and development over the next few years.

question: Are you aware of the fact that Governor Newsom has been asked to suspend construction of the Inland Empire’s warehouses?

Chat GPT: I am aware of the previous proposals and discussions surrounding the potential moratorium on building warehouses in the Inland Empire. The region has seen a significant increase in warehousing and logistics development in recent years, fueled by the rise of e-commerce and online shopping. While this growth has brought economic benefits to the region, it has also raised concerns about the environmental and social impacts of warehouse development, including issues related to air quality, traffic congestion, and community evictions. Some policy makers and community groups are calling for a temporary moratorium on warehouse development to allow for more comprehensive planning and policy solutions to address these issues. It remains to be seen whether Governor Newsom will take action on this proposal or other related measures.

question: What can the Inland Empire do to reduce the daily commute of many of its workforce to coastal areas?

Chat GPT: Reducing the daily commute to coastal areas for much of the Inland Empire’s workforce is a complex problem that requires a multi-pronged approach. Possible strategies include:

1. Encourage the development of high-paying knowledge-based jobs in the Inland Empire. One of the main drivers of commuting to coastal areas is the concentration of high-paying jobs in these areas. By promoting the development of similar jobs in the Inland Empire, policymakers and economic development organizations can reduce the need for workers to commute long distances.
2. Investment in public transport infrastructure. Improved public transport infrastructure, such as expanded bus and rail services, could make it easier and more affordable for workers to commute within the Inland Empire, reducing the need to travel to coastal areas.
3. Support the development of walkable multi-purpose communities. By creating a mix of residential, commercial and recreational communities, workers can live closer to work and reduce their commute time.
4. Encouraging telecommuting and flexible working arrangements. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that many jobs can be done remotely. Encouraging telecommuting and flexible working arrangements can reduce the need for workers to commute long distances each day.

Overall, reducing daily commuting in the Inland Empire will require a concerted effort by multiple stakeholders, including businesses, government agencies, and community organizations.

bad person

The Inland Empire Economic Council is more pessimistic than ChatGPT describes below. Education standards in the Inland Empire (such as the percentage of residents with at least a bachelor’s degree) are significantly lower than other regions that want to converge. The current workforce is unlikely to get a significant number of jobs in programming, maintenance, and equipment operation.

question: What impact do you think automation will have on the Inland Empire’s logistics industry?

Chat GPT: Automation can have a significant impact on the Inland Empire’s logistics industry as it can increase efficiency and reduce costs for warehouse and distribution center operators. Many logistics companies have already invested in automation technologies such as robotics, artificial intelligence and self-driving cars to streamline operations and improve productivity. In the short term, this trend towards automation could create new employment opportunities in areas such as programming, maintenance and equipment operation.

However, there is a long-term risk that automation could lead to significant job losses in the logistics industry, especially for low-skilled, repetitive workers. This could have significant social and economic implications for the Inland Empire region, where logistics and warehousing are major employers. To mitigate these risks, policy makers, businesses and labor organizations can work together to develop strategies to support affected workers, promote retraining and upskilling opportunities, and It is important to prepare workers for new roles that require more advanced skills in the logistics industry.

Ugly

We predict a high probability of a recession within the next 12 months. Most economists agree with us, but some are more optimistic. An analysis of current data and trends indicates that alarm bells are ringing, warning of an impending volcanic event (recession). It’s time to take precautionary measures.