SpaceX publicly released its long-awaited IPO documents on Wednesday.
Elon Musk’s rocket company posted a loss of $4.9 billion last year on revenue of $18.7 billion. The company plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker “SPCX,” in what is expected to be one of the largest IPOs in U.S. history, according to its S-1 filing.
Ahead of the filing, we outlined what market experts and investment experts say you should expect and think about this landmark IPO, especially SpaceX’s business, its components and big considerations going forward.
What brings us such high praise?
Musk wants to use SpaceX to establish a colony on Mars. Marvin Joseph/The Washington Post via Getty Images
With $75 billion in funding and a $2 trillion valuation, SpaceX’s IPO would be the largest in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco, which raised $29.4 billion, and Alibaba, which raised $25 billion.
Historic IPO pricing and the company’s expected huge valuation are bottlenecks in the filing.
bullish view
ARK Invest, run by prominent tech investor Cathie Wood, owns SpaceX stock and mentioned the company’s massive valuation in a note to investors in April. In short, Wood says, if all the elements of the company’s future story fit together as expected, the valuation is justified.
“This rating reflects certain assumptions about the future, not the present,” the company said. “This valuation reflects what investors believe SpaceX will become, not how much SpaceX currently makes. That requires understanding the company’s individual business segments.”
A valuation approaching $2 trillion means it likely won’t compare well to other stocks trading on the market, and Wood noted that he believes future assumptions are a major factor in the company’s huge expected market cap.
bearish view
Others are less sure.
“This valuation is not really supported by the fundamentals,” said David Wagner, head of equities at Aptus Capital Advisors, adding that even if everything goes well over the next few years, SpaceX’s potential valuation would be a significant outlier among top U.S. companies.
Portfolio managers considered the company’s 2040 revenue projections in light of its $2 trillion IPO valuation. “Even after 14 years of growth, SpaceX stock is still far more expensive than the six most valuable publicly traded companies in the United States.”
“Regardless of the potential of a company, we have a hard time getting on board with it,” Wagner said.
More than just a rocket company
Investors who wanted to buy SpaceX stock at its debut may be wondering what exactly it means to invest in the company now, as the upcoming blockbuster IPO’s huge valuation is built on excitement for the future.
ARK Invest lists Starlink and launch services, xAI and orbital computing as the company’s key business segments.
Starlink is a “financial engine”
Starlink provides internet connectivity to remote locations. AIX
Starlink is SpaceX’s satellite internet business, and ARK Invest describes it as the company’s “financial engine.”
“While ARK’s research has long identified Starlink as the world’s fastest growing communications network in customer acquisition and revenue onboarding, this view has proven to be conservative,” the company said.
“The satellite connectivity market opportunity alone could reach $160 billion annually at scale, and Starlink is structurally positioned to capture a disproportionate share of it,” it added.
“Starlink is the revenue layer that makes SpaceX’s entire vision possible,” Mike Alves of VIDA Vision Fund, another early SpaceX investor, told Business Insider.
“It’s generating the majority of our cash flow today, funding capital-intensive initiatives like Starship and future infrastructure,” he said.
This business provides Internet infrastructure that provides strategic geopolitical relevance to companies.
Launch service is the “foundation”
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket takes off. Manuel Mazzanti/Null Photography via Getty Images
When you hear SpaceX, you probably think of the company’s launch services division.
According to ARK Invest, SpaceX will complete 165 orbital launches in 2025 and deploy about 85% of all spacecraft launched to date.
“ARK research shows the company has reduced launch costs by about 95% since 2008, from about $15,600 per kilogram to less than $1,000 per kilogram for Falcon 9.”
He added: “A fully reusable Starship, targeted for less than $100 per kilogram, would reduce costs by orders of magnitude and open up a market that doesn’t yet exist.”
The orbital launch business, particularly the reusable rocket parts and competitive moat provided by the company’s early leadership, is a key part of VIDA Vision Fund’s Mike Alves’ investment thesis for SpaceX.
“Essentially, you’re endorsing Starlink as a major revenue stream today, layered with options across satellite infrastructure, launch, and future space-based systems,” he said.
Orbital computing and xAI
SpaceX’s long-term goal is Mars, but before that it’s also eyeing the Moon. Reginald Massalone/Null Photo via Getty Images
Space infrastructure may be the most theoretical and sci-fi of SpaceX’s businesses, but some investment professionals believe it has potential.
SpaceX acquired Elon Musk’s AI company xAI earlier this year. The xAI merger marks the unification of the AI ambitions of Musk’s company and SpaceX.
Orbital computing (aka data centers in space) could be a major growth leg for SpaceX as AI increases demand for it.
“The xAI merger and orbital computing represent the most forward-looking aspect of the assessment,” ARK Invest said, noting that its research suggests that orbital data centers can provide computing at approximately 25% lower prices than alternative data centers on Earth.
No, in the likely case (approximately a 50th percentile guess), the annual rate of space AI satellites launched from Earth will reach 100GW/year within 3-4 years.
100TW per year will require large-scale manufacturing of satellites on the lunar surface, which will be launched into deep space with a mass driver.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 22, 2026
Musk has set the company’s goal of ramping up 100 gigawatts of AI computing power per year within three to four years.
Not everyone is convinced. Some analysts have questioned the economics, but OpenAI CEO and Musk rival Sam Altman called the plan “ridiculous.”