Rapid earthquake magnitude classification via P-wave strains from borehole strainmeters and Distributed Acoustic Sensing

Machine Learning


  • Given, D. et al. Revised Technical Implementation Plan For the ShakeAlert System—An Earthquake Early Warning System for the West Coast of the United States. Open-File Report No. 2018-1155 (U.S. Geological Survey, 2018).

  • Böse, M., Heaton, T. H. & Hauksson, E. Real-time finite fault rupture detector (FinDer) for large earthquakes. Geophys. J. Int. 191, 803–812 (2012).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Böse, M. et al. FinDer v.2: Improved real-time ground-motion predictions for M2–M9 with seismic finite-source characterization. Geophys. J. Int. 212, 725–742 (2018).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuyuk, H. S. & Allen, R. M. A global approach to provide magnitude estimates for earthquake early warning alerts. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 6329–6333 (2013).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Chung, A. I., Henson, I. & Allen, R. M. Optimizing earthquake early warning performance: ElarmS-3. Seismol. Res. Lett. 90, 727–743 (2019).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Kohler, M. et al. Earthquake early warning ShakeAlert 2.0: public rollout. Seismol. Res. Lett. 91, 1763–1775 (2020).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Williamson, A., Lux, A. & Allen, R. Improving out-of-network earthquake locations using prior seismicity for use in earthquake early warning. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 113, 0120220159 (2023).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • McGuire, J. J. et al. Fiber optic sensing for earthquake hazards research, monitoring, and early warning. Seismol. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220250067 (2025).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Lux, A. I. et al. Status and performance of the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system: 2019–2023. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 114, 3041–3062 (2024).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Schmidt, D. et al. Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning on the Cascadia Subduction Zone: A Feasibility Study for an Offshore Geophysical Monitoring Network (University of Washington, 2019).

  • Ide, S., Araki, E. & Matsumoto, H. Very broadband strain-rate measurements along a submarine fiber-optic cable off Cape Muroto, Nankai subduction zone, Japan. Earth Planets Space 73, 63 (2021).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Lior, I. et al. Strain to ground motion conversion of distributed acoustic sensing data for earthquake magnitude and stress drop determination. Solid Earth 12, 1421–1442 (2021).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Lior, I. et al. Magnitude estimation and ground motion prediction to harness fiber optic distributed acoustic sensing for earthquake early warning. Sci. Rep. 13, 424 (2023).

    Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Cole, J. H., Johnson, R. L. & Bhuta, P. G. Fiber optic detection of sound. J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 62, 1136 (1977).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhan, Z. Distributed acoustic sensing turns fiber-optic cables into sensitive seismic antennas. Seismol. Res. Lett. 91, 1–15 (2020).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindsey, N. J. & Martin, E. R. Fiber-optic seismology. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 49, 309–336 (2021).

    Article 
    CAS 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Fernández-Ruiz, M. R. et al. Seismic monitoring with distributed acoustic sensing from the near-surface to the deep oceans. J. Lightwave Technol. 40, 1453–1463 (2022).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • McGuire, J. J. et al. ShakeAlert® Version 3: expected performance in large earthquakes. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 115, 533–561 (2025).

  • Farghal, N. S., Saunders, J. K. & Parker, G. A. The potential of using fiber optic distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) in earthquake early warning applications. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 112, 1416–1435 (2022).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Yin, J. et al. Real-data testing of distributed acoustic sensing for offshore earthquake early warning. Seismic Rec. 3, 269–277 (2023).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Gou, Y., Allen, R. M., Zhu, W., Taira, T. & Chen, L.-W. Leveraging submarine DAS arrays for offshore earthquake early warning: a case study in Monterey Bay, California. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 115, 516–532 (2025).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Gou, Y., Nof, R. N., Pardini, B. & Allen, R. M. Integrating fiber-optic seismic arrays into earthquake early warning systems with the dEPIC framework. Sci. Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-30568-3 (2026).

    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 

  • McGuire, J. et al. The GorDAS distributed acoustic sensing experiment above the Cascadia Locked Zone and Subducted Gorda Slab. Seismol. Res. Lett. 96, 2489–2503 (2025).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Lundberg, S. M. & Lee, S. I. A unified approach to interpreting model predictions. In Proc. 31st International Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS ’17) 4765–4774 (NIPS, 2017).

  • Chen, T. & Guestrin, C. XGBoost: a scalable tree boosting system. In Proc. 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD ’16) 785–794 (NIPS, 2016).

  • U.S. Geological Survey & Earthquake Hazards Program. Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) comprehensive catalog of earthquake events and products: various. https://doi.org/10.5066/F7MS3QZH (2017).

  • U.S. Geological Survey. ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat) documentation. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nc75095651/finite-fault (2024).

  • Pollitz, F. F., Guns, K. A. & Yoon, C. E. Rupture process of the Mw7.0 December 5, 2024 Offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake. Geophys. Res. Lett. 52, e2025GL115613 (2025).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Lomax, A., Michelini, A. & Jozinović, D. An investigation of rapid earthquake characterization using single-station waveforms and a convolutional neural network. Seismol. Res. Lett. 90, 517–529 (2019).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Mousavi, S. M. & Beroza, G. C. A machine-learning approach for earthquake magnitude estimation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2019GL085976 (2020).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Lara, P., Bletery, Q., Ampuero, J.-P., Inza, A. & Tavera, H. Earthquake early warning starting from 3 s of records on a single station with machine learning. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 128, e2023JB026575 (2023).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Joshi, A. et al. Application of XGBoost model for early prediction of earthquake magnitude from waveform data. J. Earth Syst. Sci. 133, 5 (2024).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, X. et al. Spectrum feature extraction method combining Allan variance, VMD, and PSD. Sci. Rep. 14, 10990 (2024).

    Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, H. et al. A rapid DAS signal classification algorithm based on VMD and IMF power spectrum Gaussian fitting. Sci. Rep. 15, 35356 (2025).

    Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Licciardi, A. et al. Instantaneous tracking of earthquake growth with elastogravity signals. Nature 606, 319–324 (2022).

    Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Juhel, K. et al. Earthquake early warning using future generation gravity strainmeters. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 123, 10,889–10,902 (2018).

  • Madariaga, R., Ruiz, S., Rivera, E., Leyton, F. & Baez, J. C. Near-Field Spectra of Large Earthquakes (Springer Nature Switzerland AG, 2018).

  • Luo, B., Jin, G. & Stanek, F. Near-field strain in distributed acoustic sensing-based microseismic observation. Geophysics 86, P49–P60 (2021).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Nayak, A., Correa, J. & Ajo-Franklin, J. Seismic magnitude estimation using low-frequency strain amplitudes recorded by DAS arrays at far-field distances. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 114, 1818–1838 (2024).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Nakamura, Y. On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system (UrEDAS). In 9th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering 673-678 (IAEE, 1988).

  • Kanamori, H. Real-time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 33, 195–214 (2005).

    Article 
    CAS 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, W., Ni, S., Chen, Y. & Kanamori, H. Magnitude estimation for early warning applications using the initial part of P waves: a case study on the 2008 Wenchuan sequence. Geophys. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038678 (2009).

  • McGuire, J. J., Simons, F. J. & Collins, J. A. Analysis of seafloor seismograms of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake sequence for earthquake early warning. Geophys. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033986 (2008).

  • Crowell, B. W., Melgar, D., Bock, Y., Haase, J. S. & Geng, J. Earthquake magnitude scaling using seismogeodetic data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 6089–6094 (2013).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Goldberg, D. E. et al. Model for GNSS Peak ground displacement. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 111, 2393–2407 (2021).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Thakoor, K., Andrews, J., Hauksson, E. & Heaton, T. From earthquake source parameters to ground-motion warnings near you: the ShakeAlert earthquake information to ground-motion (eqInfo2GM) method. Seismol. Res. Lett. 90, 1243–1257 (2019).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Saunders, J. K., Baltay, A. S., Minson, S. E. & Böse, M. Uncertainty in ground-motion-to-intensity conversions significantly affects earthquake early warning alert regions. Seismic Rec. 4, 121–130 (2024).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • McGuire, J. J. et al. Expected Warning Times from the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System for Earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest (ver. 1.1, March 24, 2021). U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2021–1026 (USGS, 2021).

  • Thompson, M., Hartog, J. R. & Wirth, E. A. A population-based performance evaluation of the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for M9 megathrust earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 114, 1103–1123 (2023).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Ajo-Franklin, J. et al. The Imperial Valley Dark Fiber Project: toward seismic studies using DAS and telecom infrastructure for geothermal applications. Seismol. Res. Lett. 93, 2906–2919 (2022).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • van den Ende, M., Trabattoni, A., Baillet, M. & Rivet, D. An analysis of the dynamic range of distributed acoustic sensing for earthquake early warning. Seismica https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v4i1.1371 (2024).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Viens, L. et al. Nonlinear earthquake response of marine sediments with distributed acoustic sensing. Geophys. Res. Lett. 49, e2022GL100122 (2022).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindsey, N. J., Rademacher, H. & Ajo-Franklin, J. B. On the broadband instrument response of fiber-optic DAS arrays. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 125, e2019JB018145 (2020).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams, E. F. et al. Surface gravity wave interferometry and ocean current monitoring with ocean-bottom DAS. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 127, e2021JC018375 (2022).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Song, Z. et al. Near real-time in situ monitoring of nearshore ocean currents using distributed acoustic sensing on submarine fiber-optic cable. Earth Space Sci. 11, e2024EA003572 (2024).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Hou, B., Zhou, Y., Li, S., Wei, Y. & Song, J. Real-time earthquake magnitude estimation via a deep learning network based on waveform and text mixed modal. Earth Planets Space 76, 2005 (2024).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhu, J., Li, S. & Song, J. Multimodal deep learning network for fast seismic discrimination and magnitude classification. Geosci. Lett. 12, 12 (2025).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Barbour, A. J., Langbein, J. O. & Farghal, N. S. Earthquake magnitudes from dynamic strain. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 111, 1325–1346 (2021).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • McGuire, J. J. et al. Spring 2022 Arcata to Eureka, California, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) experiment: U.S. Geological Survey data release. https://doi.org/10.5066/P9NYAT5Z (2022).

  • McGuire, J.J. et al. Arcata, California, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) experiment: 2022 M6.4 Ferndale aftershock sequence (ver. 3.0, February 2026): U.S. Geological Survey data release. https://doi.org/10.5066/P1V7CKGA (2024).

  • Shelly, D. R. et al. Subduction intraslab-interface fault interactions in the 2022 Mw 6.4 Ferndale, California, earthquake sequence. Sci. Adv. 10, eadl1226 (2024).

    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 

  • Yoon, C. E. & Shelly, D. R. Distinct yet adjacent earthquake sequences near the Mendocino Triple Junction: 20 December 2021 Mw 6.1 and 6.0 Petrolia, and 20 December 2022 Mw 6.4 Ferndale. Seismic Rec. 4, 81–92 (2024).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhu, W. et al. Seismic arrival-time picking on distributed acoustic sensing data using semi-supervised learning. Nat. Commun. 14, 8192 (2023).

    Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • EarthScope Consortium. Plate Boundary Observatory borehole strainmeter network (PB). Data services provided by the NSF NGF data archive. https://www.earthscope.org/data (2016).

  • Gladwin, M. T. High-precision multicomponent borehole deformation monitoring. Rev. Sci. Instrum. 55, 2011–2016 (1984).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee, G. R., Gommers, R., Wasilewski, F., Wohlfahrt, K. & O’Leary, A. PyWavelets: a Python package for wavelet analysis. J. Open Source Softw. 4, 1237 (2019).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 

  • Pedregosa, F. et al. Scikit-learn: machine learning in Python. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 12, 2825–2830 (2011).

    MathSciNet 

    Google Scholar 

  • Bennett, J. & Lanning, S. The Netflix prize. In Proc. KDD Cup Workshop 2007 3–6 (ACM, 2007).



  • Source link