Iselin-based Provident Bank announced on January 5 that its annual economic outlook survey shows business owners are ready to accelerate their businesses in 2026, a decisive shift from last year's “wait-and-see” outlook.
The survey found that business leaders ignored the headlines, mindful of the Trump administration's tariff policy and uncertainty about inflation. More than 50% believe the U.S. economy will be in better shape this year, and more than 60% expect their business to be in better shape. This will lead to increased capital investment, employment, and accelerated adoption of AI.
This research was conducted by market research provider Paul Fish on behalf of Provident Bank. The survey results are based on responses from 1,000 U.S. executives and senior executives at companies with annual revenues of $1 million or more.
“This year's data shows a clear shift away from the passive optimism we've seen.” last year “We will be investing aggressively this year,” said Provident Bank President and CEO Anthony Labozetta. They're funding it. Plans for capital spending, hiring, and technology adoption are increasing, indicating that companies are poised to accelerate in 2026. ”
Highlights of the survey data include:
- Investment surge: 70% of companies plan to increase capital spending in 2026, up from 68% last year. High-confidence spending is on the rise, with the number of companies planning a “significant increase” in spending jumping from 11% in 2025 to 19% this year.
- Generation gap: Young leaders are driving the country's optimism, with 44% of Gen Z business owners expecting their businesses to be in “much better shape” next year, compared to just 14.5% of baby boomers. This gulf extends to strategy as well. While Gen Z and Millennials are focused on aggressive business expansion and navigating global trade tensions, Gen X and Boomers remain a stabilizing force, prioritizing operational efficiency and cost containment in the face of inflation.
- Recruitment activity intensifies: They are ready to expand their workforce, with 57% of companies planning to hire more, up from 53% last year. Hiring plans have more than doubled, with 17% of owners planning a “significant increase” in staff (compared to 8% a year ago).
- AI becomes the norm: AI efforts are exploding, with 58% of companies already using AI tools or planning to implement them in 2026, up from 41% in last year's survey.
While the outlook is bright, business leaders are being transparent about the challenges they face. While inflation remains a top concern for business owners, the intensity of that concern has subsided, falling from 60% in 2025 to 49% this year. Meanwhile, trade and policy uncertainty is rising, with 37% of respondents citing political and policy uncertainty as a key challenge, up from 29% in 2025.
“Despite the headwinds of inflation and uncertainty, the key story in 2026 will be one of resilience and action,” Labozzetta added. “Businesses are adapting, modernizing and expanding.”
