Microsoft’s $10 billion AI build for Japan could be a game-changer for SoftBank (TSE: 9434)

• In early April 2026, Microsoft announced plans to invest US$10 billion in Japan over four years to build artificial intelligence infrastructure, including partnerships with SoftBank Corp. and Sakura Internet for large-scale language models and related AI services in the country.
• The partnership could align SoftBank with global technology leaders in building AI in Japan and strengthen its role in enterprise AI and digital infrastructure.
• Here, we explore how Microsoft and SoftBank’s large-scale AI partnership could impact the company’s existing investment story and future positioning.

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Softbank investment story summary

To own SoftBank today, you must believe in SoftBank’s transition from a traditional wireless carrier to an AI and digital infrastructure platform, while accepting high leverage and capital expenditures as core risks. Microsoft’s planned US$10 billion AI investment in Japan with SoftBank as a partner strengthens the catalyst for AI infrastructure, but does not allay concerns about capital concentration and execution in expanding data centers and enterprise AI services in the short term.

Among recent announcements, SoftBank’s Telco AI Cloud and Infrinia AI Cloud OS visions stand out as the most relevant to the Microsoft partnership, as both are centered around GPU-based AI infrastructure and edge-to-cloud orchestration. The new partnership could build on this existing build and deepen SoftBank’s role in domestic LLM and enterprise AI, but also directly intersects with the uncertainty and capital concentration of AI and data center expansion plans.

But behind the allure of AI partnerships, investors should be aware that the upfront costs of AI and data centers will increase, potentially leading to:

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The SoftBank story predicts that sales will be 7,548 billion yen and profits will be 650.7 billion yen by 2028. This would require annual sales to increase by 4.2% and profits to increase by approximately 149.5 billion yen from the current 501.2 billion yen.

We reveal how SoftBank’s forecasts yield a fair value of 235 yen, 7% higher than the current price.

explore other perspectives

The five fair value estimates published by Simply Wall St Community range from approximately 100 yen to 265 yen per share, showing how far the individual valuations vary. When weighing these views against SoftBank’s growing AI and data center efforts, it’s important to compare several perspectives on how much capital intensity will impact future returns.

Check out five other fair value estimates for SoftBank – find out why the stock is worth 21% more than its current price.

The verdict is yours

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary using only unbiased methodologies, based on historical data and analyst forecasts, and articles are not intended to be financial advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. We aim to provide long-term, focused analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest announcements or qualitative material from price-sensitive companies. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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