The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest report on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and generative AI (genAI) appears to be a “best of times, worst of times” tale.
“The world is on the brink of a technological revolution that has the potential to dramatically boost productivity, accelerate global economic growth, and raise incomes around the world,” the Washington-based IMF said in a recent blog post. But AI and genAI could also “displace jobs and deepen inequalities.”
The IMF called the findings of a new analysis on AI and jobs “shocking,” saying that around 40% of global jobs will be affected by genAI, and in developed countries such as the US and Europe, the figure could be even higher, at 60%.
The result, the agency said, is that wealth inequality could increase but income inequality could also increase. In other words, AI-related productivity gains could lead to higher business performance at the same time as wages decline.
While these trends may seem ominous, the study also found that roughly half of the jobs affected by AI and genAI could benefit from increased productivity. But for the remaining 50%, genAI tools could perform tasks currently performed by humans, potentially reducing demand for labor, leading to lower wages and fewer jobs.
And in the most extreme cases, some jobs could disappear.
“Many studies predict that jobs may be replaced by AI,” the study states. “But we also find that in many cases, AI is more likely to complement human work. The IMF's analysis captures both forces: if productivity gains are large enough, income levels for most workers could soar. In this changing landscape, advanced economies and more developed emerging markets need to focus on upgrading regulatory frameworks and supporting labor reallocation to protect those who are adversely affected.”
High-ranking jobs may be affected
The agency said that historically, automation and IT have tended to impact routine tasks, but “one thing that is different about AI is its ability to impact highly skilled work.”
“As a result, advanced economies face greater risks from AI than emerging market and developing countries, but they also have greater opportunities to harness its benefits,” the IMF said.
The potential for labor market disruption from the rapid advancement of genAI tools was highlighted by the World Economic Forum (WEF) last fall, which concluded that genAI could lead to the loss of 85 million jobs worldwide by 2025, while creating 97 million new jobs in fields ranging from big data and machine learning to information security and digital marketing.
A new study by global content and technology company Thomson Reuters says that 27% of tech jobs currently advertised in the UK are AI-related. After analysing 6,073 tech jobs advertised online this month, the company said it found that 1,652 jobs required AI skills as a foundational requirement.
Jobs requiring AI skills were defined as jobs that have AI in the title (e.g., AI trainer, AI content writer, etc.) or roles that list AI skills as a requirement or primary function. Additionally, the legal vertical is seeing a number of new AI-specific roles emerge, such as “head of large-scale language models” and “global knowledge systems architect.”
“Demand for AI skills is expected to grow further in 2024 as companies race to adapt their talent and business processes to harness the technology's potential,” Thomson Reuters said.
The WEF (pointing to independent research by Jobs of Tomorrow and Deloitte) agreed that genAI is likely to create new jobs, including for AI developers, engineers and scientists working on the large-scale language models (LLMs) that genAI tools such as ChatGPT rely on.
“Specific roles in this field are not just those of programmers designing more efficient algorithms,” the WEF said. “Demand for customized microchips to train and perform LLMs could create more opportunities for electrical engineers.”
The paper noted that Meta is one of the companies researching custom chips for AI, which could help chip designers make further advances.
The WEF, again citing Deloitte, said semiconductor manufacturers are developing AI design tools that are already being used to produce billions of dollars' worth of semiconductors annually. “While AI will not replace human designers, its complementary strengths in speed and cost-effectiveness will significantly enhance semiconductor manufacturers' design capabilities,” Deloitte said.
A potential AI digital divide?
Kevin McNish, head of ethics and sustainability at Sopra Steria, a Europe-based business consulting and digital services provider, said the IMF research highlights how important ethics must be in AI adoption.
“While the benefits of AI in the workplace are well known, the technology can also have very real impacts on the people and organizations that deploy it, including risks to bias, discrimination and data privacy,” said McNish. “As adoption accelerates, we have a duty to ensure that AI is used transparently and responsibly, starting with considering an 'ethics by design' approach during development and implementation.”
The key to increasing productivity without simply replacing workers is educating the public on how to use AI and genAI tools effectively, so that the technology becomes more accessible and understandable and “we can prevent this digital divide from happening before it's too late.”
Indeed, workers who harness AI capabilities are likely to see their productivity and wages rise, while those who don't are likely to fall behind, according to the IMF. The organization noted that a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) showed that genAI could help less-experienced workers improve their productivity faster.
“Younger workers may find it easier to take advantage of opportunities, but older workers may struggle to adapt,” the IMF said.
Optimism about AI
A recent survey published by IT recruitment firm Experis revealed that the majority of employers around the world are optimistic that emerging technologies such as genAI and machine learning will create more jobs than they will lose.
“As businesses embrace these new technologies, many are looking to hire and upskill their existing talent to capitalize on the productivity gains they offer,” said Ger Doyle, senior vice president at Experis. “Smart employers know that embracing digital and developing their talent will better prepare them to succeed in an era of rapid technological advancements.”
Goldman Sachs predicts that 29% of computer-related jobs could be automated by AI, along with 28% of healthcare jobs and technical tasks in that field. Other fields most affected by automation are administrative (46%) and legal professions (44%) jobs. Unsurprisingly, jobs that are less affected tend to be in more physically demanding fields such as construction (6%) and maintenance (4%).
Mary Alice Vujicic, chief human resources officer at Thomson Reuters, said demand for AI skills across all professions was accelerating at an “alarming pace.”
“AI-specific job requirements have gone from very specific to accounting for more than a quarter of all new IT roles in a very short space of time,” Vujicic said in a statement. “As AI capabilities grow, we will see an unprecedented wave of upskilling and reskilling, with AQ (adaptability quotient) becoming as important, if not more important, than IQ and EQ.”
New roles will emerge, such as AI integrators who transform job design to integrate technology and improve human work, and reskillers who train and develop talent for jobs that are uniquely human.
“The innovative AI roles being created today will play a key role in driving business growth, innovation and efficiency tomorrow,” Vucic said.
Business leaders are starting to see the value of genAI tools, with 91% of executives saying their companies are currently using the tools or plan to do so within the next 18 months, according to a Thomson Reuters survey.
The survey also found that nearly 90% of respondents expect basic AI training to be mandatory for all professionals by 2030.
