Jobs that can be AI, can't do it
But that's not what happened. In particular, Autor and Thompson say that the wages of accounting clerks have risen and the wages of inventory clerks have fallen.
This is because most jobs are not random collections of unrelated tasks. They are bundles of tasks that are most efficient by the same person for a variety of reasons. Removing some tasks from the bundle changes the rest of the job.
The inventory clerk lost a bit of work that required most education and training (arithmetic) and became like a shelf stacker. The accountants also lost arithmetic, but what remained required judgment, analysis and sophisticated problem resolution.
The same kind of tasks were automated, but the effect was to create jobs that required less training and expertise for the job that was invented, but the treasurer had to be more experts than before.
A natural concern for those hoping to work in five years is what AI does for the job. And while there is little certainty, the Autor and Thompson framework suggests clear questions. Does AI look like you'll do the most highly skilled part of your job or the low-skilled ramp you couldn't get rid of? The answer to that question may help you predict whether your job will be more enjoyable, more annoying than that, and whether your salary could rise, or whether professional jobs will be neglected like Luddites' professional jobs.
For example, a generator AI system is excellent brainstorming. They create unexpected connections and generate many different ideas. When you're running a role-playing game, that's great. They accelerate their preparation and let's go straight to the good stuff sitting around the table pretending to be a wizard with my friends.
For those who offer an occasional oasis of creative brainstorming in the desert of work, the emergence of industrial brainstorming engines may be rather liberating.
Or think of that gardener. Perhaps the worst part of their job is trying to create emails to desk-based clients who seem to be far more proficient in the medium than those who spend most of their time outdoors. Laser scarecrows and robot weeds are cursed. All gardeners need are AI secretaries, scribes and editors. And the technology for doing so is already here.
