Every year, over a million wild tee beasts are believed to thunder across the vast grasslands of East Africa, across the Serengeti and Masai Mara, long known as the world's largest wildlife relocation. That number has just been changed. And that changed a lot.
A new study reveals that the actual number of wildesters in this legendary migration could be less than half of what we thought. Instead of 1.3 million, the new count shows less than 600,000 animals. So where is the missing Wildebeest?
New ways to count Wildebeest
Until now, scientists have used planes to count herds from above. They flew along the set line, photographing the animals below, and using mathematical models to estimate how many people were in the area that were not directly seen. It was the best method available, but not perfect.
Wildebeest is constantly moving. If a group moves from one location to another, they may be counted twice or missed completely. That's where the satellites arrive.
Researchers have turned to high-resolution satellite images that can take photos covering hundreds of thousands of square miles in one shot. These images do not scare animals and do not require dangerous low planes.
But there's a catch. There are too many images for humans to count by sifting through animals with their hands. So the team turned to artificial intelligence. Two powerful deep learning models were trained to recognize small forms of Wildebeest from space.
The shape appears as a blob with a width of 6-12 pixels and is barely visible even when zoomed in. The model, called U-Net and Yolov8, was trained on over 70,000 examples of labeled Wildebeest, reaching a high accuracy score of up to 0.83, which is considered to be superior for this type of work.
What AI found
The trained AI model analyzed satellite photos taken in August 2022 and 2023 in the Masai Mara region of Kenya and Tanzania. The results were surprising.
In 2022, the model was counted between 324,202 and 337,926 Wildebeest. In 2023, they discovered 502,917 to 533,137. This is a huge gap compared to the long-standing estimate of 1.3 million Wildebeest. This is a number that has existed since the 1970s.
The model was created and run by a team that includes researchers from the University of Oxford's Wildlife Conservation Research Unit. They believe the new counts are more reliable, as satellite images do not require speculation about where the animals are.
Where did Wildebeest go?
There is no clear answer yet as to what happened to “missing” Wildebeest. The study was led by Dr. Isla Duporge of Oxford University.
“The big difference between traditional estimates and new results raises questions about where the 'missing' Wildebeest is,” Dr. Duporge said.
“Based on data from GPS follow-up, we believe that most of the herds are included in the area being studied. And while some individuals may be obscure by tree covering, it is not likely that such a large number of such was hidden in this way in a half-million order.”
Possible changes in transition
It's possible that Wildebeest hasn't disappeared. It may just be that they are moving differently than before. Climate change in rainfall can change to the best grazing area.
Human activities such as agriculture, roads and fences also block traditional routes of travel. If the herds are splitting or rerouting, they may be difficult to find in one place.
Also, current satellite images cannot easily convey Wildebeest separate from other similar animals like Zebra and Eland. So the count may actually be slightly higher and less than it should be.
The importance of accurate data
Wildebeest is not the only place for major migration. Lions, crocodiles, hyenas and other predators rely on this moving buffet for survival. The migration also attracts visitors from all over the world and brings millions of dollars to local communities in Kenya and Tanzania through tourism.
If the herd is really shrinking, it can ripple through the entire ecosystem. Therefore, having accurate data is extremely important.
“The field of wildlife conservation relies on having accurate data on the population numbers of wildlife,” says Dr. Duposie.
“Combining Earth Observation Satellite Data with deep learning, this study revolutionized understanding of migratory bird wildebeest numbers, allowing us to open floodgates to investigate other species using this method.”
What else can AI find from the space?
This is not the first time AI and satellites have partnered to protect them. The same research team had previously trained models to find elephants from space. However, this new Wildebeest study was the first to count individual animals in a large, broad population.
The same technology can be used immediately to track other herd animals, such as reindeer, camels and zebras, according to the team. They are also working on new ways to detect African rhinos, one of the most endangered animals on the planet.
Professor David MacDonald, co-author of the study, noted that the most basic fact he knows as the basis for conserving seeds is how many of them are.
“A technical breakthrough in our research – satellite-based wildlife monitoring with AI – could revolutionize Wildebeest's answer, in addition to opening up incredible possibilities for monitoring other large species,” says Professor Macdonald.
This new way of counting animals could change the way wildlife is protected. But for now, it leaves us with a big unsettling question: what happened to the hundreds of thousands of wild wildebeests we thought were there? You may need to rethink what you know about one of the planet's most iconic transitions.
The complete study was published in the journal pnas nexus.
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