Tropical weather is difficult to predict, but new tools have emerged over the past few years and have proven useful. Thank you for machine learning.
The European Medium Distance Centre generates forecasts every day through the AI Integrated Prediction System Model AIFS. The model was officially operated in February, but data was available last year. Google opened the Machine Learning DeepMind Weather Lab website this month. The NHC has observed this AI model in the last two hurricane seasons. Both of these AI models demonstrate tremendous promise and capabilities that outperform traditional physics-based models.
These AI models were trained in decades of past weather, including tropical cyclones. They compare the current atmosphere with similar atmospheres in the past and generate predictions based on how the atmosphere evolved during a similar setup.
The early signs are promising. Track and intensity predictions were a great help in creating more accurate predictions.
A prediction process that is completely independent of other weather entities, government-run or private, analyzes AI models along with traditional physics-based models.
This hurricane season will be a big test of whether AI models can perform better than traditional models.
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