The global AI chip market is witnessing stock price fluctuations, with analysts expecting another record profit as the world's largest manufacturer of advanced artificial intelligence AI chips Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSMC is expected to report a 27% increase in fourth-quarter net profit to a record high, driven by seemingly insatiable demand for AI infrastructure.
TSMC, the world's top contract chip maker and a major supplier to Nvidia, is expected to report a net profit of NT$475.2 billion ($15.02 billion) for the three months to Dec. 31, according to the LSEG SmartEstimate compiled from 19 analysts.
SmartEstimates emphasizes consistently accurate analyst forecasts.
According to reports Reuters, TSMC, Asia's most valuable listed company with a market capitalization of about $1.38 trillion (more than double that of South Korean rival Samsung Electronics), is scheduled to file a report on Thursday, January 15, 2026, providing first-quarter and full-year guidance.
Last week, the company posted a 20.45% increase in fourth-quarter sales, which exceeded market expectations. If the profit exceeds NT$452.3 billion, the company's quarterly net profit will be a record high and it will be the eighth consecutive quarter of profit growth.
Galen Zeng, senior research manager at research firm IDC, said fourth-quarter earnings were driven by full utilization of TSMC's 3-nanometer capacity, driven by the iPhone 17 series with Apple's A19 chip and continued strong demand for AI.
“The main driver is the explosive growth of the AI server accelerator manufacturing market,” Zeng said, adding that the market is expected to grow 78% year-on-year in 2026.
Shay Boroa, chief market strategist at Futurum Equities, said demand for AI is clearly accelerating and TSMC continues to capture leading edge market share as competitors struggle to catch up.
However, he added that the expected profit margins from TSMC's 2-nanometer node and pricing could fade as overseas fab growth is faster than expected.
TSMC is investing $165 billion to build a chip factory in the US state of Arizona, and US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said in a podcast published last week that the company plans to make further investments in the country.
It remains unclear how much of an impact U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs will have on TSMC, as Taiwan's exports to the U.S. are subject to a 20% tariff, excluding chips.
Additionally, TSMC's Taipei-listed shares rose 44.2% last year, outpacing the broader market's 25.7% rise.
