The only question on the minds of leaders discussing the future of generative AI at this year's World Economic Forum in Davos is how this technology could change the future of employment.
The annual Gabfest brings together thousands of participants, including top academics, business and government representatives, to ponder the most pressing global issues. Given the potential of generative AI to transform the economy, it's no surprise that the technology dominates many discussions this year.
It's unclear when AI will change employment patterns and impact the economy, but OpenAI CEO Sam Altman doesn't think jobs are currently at risk.
“This is a much better tool than I expected,” he said in Davos. “It's going to get better, but it's not going to replace jobs yet. It's a great productivity tool. It's going to expand human work, it's going to enable humans to do their jobs better, and it's going to help them do their jobs better. It’s a tool that lets AI do some of the work.”
Consulting giant PwC surveyed 4,702 CEOs and found that 45% believe the rise of AI could make their company's business model unsustainable for more than 10 years.
Bob Moritz, Global Chairman of PwC, said: “55% of people think there is no need to fundamentally change, but I would argue that that is a bit naive. “This is because things are changing rapidly,” he was quoted as saying.
About 60% of respondents to PWC's survey said they expect generative AI to improve the efficiency of their companies. Software that can automatically process and generate text and images increases employee productivity by allowing them to respond to emails, analyze reports, and draft presentations faster.
As employees are forced to use these tools, some predict that their jobs will change, if not disappear. The International Monetary Fund estimates that almost 40% of global jobs are exposed to AI, and in developed countries, he predicted that as many as 60% of jobs could be affected by AI.
“Historically, automation and information technology have tended to impact everyday work, but one thing that sets AI apart is its ability to impact highly skilled jobs. , developed countries face greater risks from AI, but they also face greater risks from AI and can take advantage of them compared to emerging market and developing countries,” the IMF said. explained.
“About half of exposed jobs could benefit from AI integration and increase productivity. For the other half, AI applications have the potential to perform critical tasks currently performed by humans. “This could reduce demand for labor, leading to lower wages and fewer jobs. In the most extreme cases, some of these jobs may disappear.”
AI may make us more productive, but is it right?
But generative AI tools are notoriously imperfect. Employees who rely on them for work should diligently check them for errors. Employees will need training to use generative AI effectively. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said the technology needs to become more accurate before it can become a reality.
“Today's AI utility has reached its end,” he told CNBC. “I believe the next stage of AI will be building formal accuracy into the underlying model.”
“There are a lot of other unsolved problems. How do you prove that your large-scale language model is actually correct? There are a lot of things wrong today. I still need to know that it's right. But at the end of the day, I need the knowledge worker to tell me whether it's right or not.”
Attendees are concerned about the speed at which AI is advancing and question whether this technology will be a force for good given how disruptive it will be to people's lives.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that “powerful technology companies are already pursuing profits with reckless disregard for human rights, individual privacy and social impact.”
But Microsoft founder Bill Gates was more optimistic. He believes that AI can transform the workforce, making workers more efficient and productive and reducing their working hours. It is predicted that initially white-collar jobs will be influenced by generative AI, and eventually blue-collar jobs will be influenced by robotics.
“The world will become richer, and people will be able to work less and get more,” he opined. ®
