Young people are poured into blue-collar vocational training programs as AI threatens white-collar workers and attacks some college graduates looking for entry-level roles.
Prior to the pandemic, the trade school market was “largely stagnant,” according to a March report from a higher education marketing and research firm. Currently, fall enrollment in trade schools is expected to increase by 6.6% per year.
“There's nothing wrong with blue collar. There's nothing wrong with getting a little dirty with a little sweat and making a little money in the process,” said David Rames, senior product manager at Midea, a producer of major home appliances like air conditioners and fridges who teamed up with more than 12 trade schools to train HVAC technicians.
“There's no need to worry about AI,” he said. “Because AI can't install HVAC systems.”
Trade schools are one option for those looking to take part in tasks such as welding, plumbing, and installing HVAC. Enrollment in occupational programs focused on occupational and trade programs focused on occupational and trade programs has skyrocketed since 2020, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. And the number of registered apprentices who can make money while trainees are learning has increased just as much over the past few years.
Additionally, trading wages can rival some areas where the average student loan debt requires a four-year degree without nearly $43,000. Last year, the median annual wage for HVAC technicians was nearly $60,000, slightly below the median wages for all other workers, roughly the same as the median annual wages for those with a liberal arts degree. HVAC workers earn more than $91,000 in maximum wages.
And because of the shortage of HVAC workers and high demand for services, “the prices of HVAC contractors have risen significantly,” Rames said.
It's not the only transaction that can be paid well, especially depending on the time and years of experience that has been up and it's not the only transaction. Rames said his son, at age 22, had $55,000 in excess cash to park in a long-term investment after working in the plumbing industry.
“Tell these stories to these kids, their eyes become huge,” Reames said.
In a survey of 1,000 people from online resume template service Zety, more than half of Gen Z workers said they are seriously considering blue-collar or skilled trade areas. AI was taken into consideration in their thinking as well as the pay and opportunities for blue-collar employment.
Zety career expert Jasmine Escalera believes the change is part of the overall “Ai-Chiety Pivot” where young people rethink their careers and rethink whether their degrees are worthwhile. She noted that in addition to the fear of AI replacing entry-level positions, young people may not be much interested in climbing corporate ladders and may be keen to avoid the calamity of unemployed college graduates seen on social media.
“I don't know if there are many of them anymore when it comes to safe jobs that are always there,” Escalella said. “I think a lot of positions will change because of AI. I don't know if they will disappear completely.”
Geoff Bell, an HVAC technician with Texas Pride air conditioning and heating, tests refrigerant levels in air conditioning units during heat waves in Houston, Texas. Reuters/Adries Latif ・Reuters/Reuters
Gen Z workers may wonder why they should go into debt to earn their bachelor's degree in order to take part in a career that appears to be dramatically different in a few years from now thanks to advances in technological conditions.
What I feel more certainly: “There's always a job for plumbers,” Escalella said.
This month, a paper from a researcher at Stanford University found that there was already a significant decline in employment among early career workers (ages 22-25) in occupations most exposed to AI, such as software engineers.
But not all work is rose. At Zety Survey, 38% of Gen Zers say that they are “the biggest hesitation in physical labor demands” by becoming completely blue-collar.
Yet young people continue to be interested. Brandon Milligan, CEO of Stratatech Education Group, runs several skilled trade schools, but the student population is growing, including women, recent high school graduates and even some who switch careers. Total registrations increased by 7% in July from a year ago.
“Usually, our students can begin their educational journey, and they take part in a 7-9 month program and start working quickly, at a relatively low cost compared to traditional education,” Milligan said. “It's not just about investing in four to five years pursuing a bachelor's degree… it's very appealing to people who really want to work with their hands.”
Their programs, including HVAC, welding, electrical work, and more, cost around $20,000 to $25,000. Electrical programs in particular are extremely popular, he said.
23-year-old David McLean is a two-time graduate of the Tulsa Welding School in Stratatech in Jacksonville and has four accreditations in total: welding, electrical, HVAC and solar. He is currently based in Virginia Beach, Virginia, and currently works as an electrician installing security systems.
First, he said electrical work can pay between $20 and $30 per hour, but with experience it increases by up to $45 or more. McLean's job is also planning to pay him back to school to take online project management courses, helping him pay for past student loans. He expects to get paid soon.
“The pay is absolutely amazing – and the workload,” McLean said.
In his trading career, he was able to invest in three properties.
“Electricity is why we buy the fourth one next year,” he said.
Related: How to Invest in Real Estate: 8 Ways to Get Started
Emma Ockerman He is a reporter who covers the economy and labor of Yahoo Finance. You can contact her at emma.ockerman@yahooinc.com.
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