Why an automated future won’t make you unemployed

Every wave of technological innovation brings fear that humanity is doomed to social exile. place of work.Ever since the Luddites destroyed the Machine In the early 1800s, workers protested, sometimes violently, against the threat of automation leading to job losses. Adoption is now on the rise. AI and machine learning also raised similar concerns.

In some respects, these concerns are well-founded. In my new book, despite the current anxiety, The Magic Conveyor Belt: Supply Chains, AI, and the Future of WorkI argue that the relentless progress of technology-driven innovation will not lead to the disappearance of mass employment, especially if we are smart enough to prepare our workers for a different future.

Learn more about the intersection of AI and workIs AI Coming to Your Job?

Will AI mean fewer jobs?

In many cases, the impact of automation on jobs usually follows three overlapping phases. In the first phase, skills are enhanced by partially automating tasks that previously required special expertise. This job still requires workers, but they are less skilled and sometimes less paid.

A modern example is the London taxi driver. They have long sought to pass the world’s toughest test to prove they have “knowledge” of London’s Byzantine maze of 25,000 streets and 100,000 landmarks and businesses. It has been taken. But in 2012, Uber entered London with a navigation app that allowed anyone with a car and a smartphone to pick and drop passengers.

The second stage is scaling. This includes expanding the human workforce so that each person can handle more work. In this way, fewer workers are required for a given production volume. For example, the invention of telephone numbers allowed each switch operator to handle more calls without having to remember the name switch settings required to make the call. A faster process means fewer operators are needed to handle a higher volume of calls.

In the third stage, elimination, machines can improve in performance over time and eventually replace jobs that have lost their skill. Many examples demonstrate this process. Computerized technology, especially personal computers and office software applications, has reduced the need for stenographers, typists, secretaries and bookkeepers. Similarly, early airliners required a five-man cockpit crew (pilot, co-pilot, navigator, flight engineer, and radio operator), but advances in electronics have eliminated these roles, leaving pilots Only the pilot and co-pilot were left with work.

The effect of exclusion is, of course, the loss of employment. However, some employees still need to manage tasks that are difficult to automate. These include personal service work, negotiating business relationships, supervising all new machinery, and more.

Give as much technology as you need

New technologies can also boost job creation in four key areas.

1. Creation of new jobs

The information technology revolution has created many previously unimaginable occupations. software architect, data scientist, web developer, digital marketing Experts, and many more. The pace of change makes it difficult to predict new opportunities, but we can more confidently predict which jobs may be changed, deskilled or even eliminated. . Such predictions give people, businesses, and governments time to prepare for change through reskilling and career changes.

2. Expanding current role

Some new jobs are extensions of existing jobs. As personal computers became more popular, spreadsheet software enabled ordinary workers to create their own numerical and financial models without the assistance of programmers at every step. However, this development does not eliminate the work of central IT departments. Workers still needed assistance, training and software updates.

Today, new generative AI tools create demand for workers who can efficiently use them to improve their productivity. Among these jobs are AI trainers and explainers who help people use the tools efficiently and recognize when they are getting erroneous results; may include customer service representatives, data scientists and ML engineers who provide customized services. Train your model and keep adapting to changing environments, needs, and more.

3. Increasing size and scope

Advances in technology can create more jobs. For example, reducing the cockpit crew of an airliner from five of her to two of her reduced labor costs per passenger and encouraged more people to fly. As a result, increased passenger numbers have led to scale innovations such as larger aircraft, further reducing cost per passenger. This meant airlines needed to hire more pilots, flight attendants, baggage handlers and airport personnel.

4. Other ripple effects

The rise in air travel has created a boom in international travel.the number of Between 1970 and 2019, international tourist arrivals around the world increased nearly ninefold. As a result, there has been a surge in employment in the travel and tourism industry. In 2020, around 700 million people worldwide had jobs in travel and tourism. A similar process has fueled globalization, which has grown with the adoption of containerization, increased air travel, and modern communications technologies.

Such ripple effects are particularly difficult to predict. These include new industries and new ways of working that do not yet exist.

Will the AI ​​revolution be different for workers?

In previous industrial revolutions, some jobs disappeared. But each revolution has brought with it many new kinds of infrastructure such as railroads, electricity, roads, telephones and the Internet, and new consumer products such as automobiles, radios, televisions, appliances, computers and smartphones. rice field. These products are widely used in department stores, mail order, shopping malls, large stores, e-commerce It has contributed to economic growth and increased employment.

The ongoing AI-driven revolution may differ from previous versions in four main ways. It hits professional workers, affects a wide range of jobs, performs “human-specific” functions, and moves quickly. One of the problems with imagining the future is that we all know that the jobs and people employed today may change or be replaced. They are our neighbors, colleagues, family members, and ourselves. We know very little about the new economy and future jobs. Both of these facts are sources of anxiety.

Today’s AI-powered technologies seem to affect jobs at a much higher skill level than past industrial revolutions. However, this is another version of skill unlocking and may just be a shift in power relations within the organization. Just as easy-to-use computers and spreadsheets allow employees and managers to work independently of her central IT expertise, Dar E 2 Allow employees to create art without hiring artists. Similarly Chat GPT Enable individuals to create software programs without the need for programmers. Over time, increased productivity can create many new and different jobs.

Despite the claim that Generation AI It can act like a human, but it’s just software trained to manipulate many different elements (text, art, computer code, etc.). Given a query, the machine uses data-derived logic to generate a response. So while it will downskill some jobs, it will lead to significant productivity gains, empower workers to use new tools, and create many new jobs.

The only factor changing the current landscape is the pace of change in the AI ​​revolution. His first three industrial revolutions took decades because they required mass production of new physical assets, such as replacing agricultural workers with machines. Providers of these technologies have had to design and build new factories (and new supply ecosystems) to scale their products (power looms, steam engines, electrical equipment, container ships, etc.) . Workers had time to age on the fly or slowly transition to other careers until retirement. Businesses and workers have had time to adapt.

In contrast, AI-driven automation, mobile apps, cloud computing It can be incredibly fast. AI software may take time to develop initially, but mass production can be instant and almost free. Moreover, most organizations have digitized most of their communications, stored data, and business processes, so these digital streams can quickly switch from human-mediated to AI-mediated systems.

AI detailsWhat does it mean to “work with AI”?

Take advantage of AI opportunities

AI promises a new era of increased productivity, but the pace of change is so rapid that many workers could be out of work in the short term until new industries develop. I have. This can be a painful process with forced changes, loss of income, and other disruptions. But ignoring technological change is futile. So countries, businesses and citizens should prepare for it.

Even in technology-based environments, workers and managers need to understand the details of their jobs. They define the machine’s task and, most importantly, monitor it and override it if necessary. The problem is that such workers have many years of experience. But in an environment where some entry-level jobs are automated, how can an organization create a pool of experienced mid-level workers if there are no entry-level jobs?

There are three ways to approach this challenge. First, maintaining and upgrading the skills of your existing workforce will allow you to take advantage of the increasingly available online education and training.this includes both MOOCsWhether it’s technology that enables people to perform specific tasks when needed or AI-based augmented reality that instructs people how to perform the task at hand.

Another US solution is to adopt and customize an apprenticeship system similar to Germany’s. Dual Ausbildungssystem,is what it means Dual vocational education and training system.This program It’s a 3-4 year program with about 70 percent work time combined. 30% are trained in vocational schools and are companies that provide salary and subsidized living expenses. More than half (54.5%) of German high school graduates go on to the system, which covers 327 recognized occupations. In Germany, about two-thirds of apprentices get a full-time job with the employer that originally hired them as apprentices. Although companies themselves offer jobs to these apprentices, applicants apply to companies rather than schools, but the German government helps regulate programs and set educational standards..

Governments should also plan to increase unemployment funding related to retraining and moving people to new jobs. With the rapid pace of technology development today, it’s time to plan and develop new ways to meet the challenges of future change in the workplace and beyond.

The future of work is not without humans. Instead, we must find ways to ensure that workers play a vital role in the new world that technology has always been, and will no doubt continue to create.