The Irish are often unfairly the target of cruel jokes.
Take the common old observation: “Oh, have you ever noticed that after a drought there is always rain?”
If you say this line in a pub, especially with the right accent, it gets a lot of praise, but maybe it's just a statement of fact, a declaration of an obvious fact, and I think that's why it's funny.
But that doesn't mean others aren't guilty of the same thing.
For example, stockbrokers and investment analysts are always encouraging us to buy, regardless of what is happening in the market.
They will wisely say that every downturn is followed by a boom.
Ah, that's right. So it's not a failure anymore.
Suddenly, in the past two weeks, a whole host of investment professionals have started shouting that “now is not the time to panic,” and that even if financial markets are going to fall in the near future, they will soon rebound.
So why the sudden call for calm?
The main reason is growing anxiety about global stock markets, especially Wall Street.
The New York Stock Exchange has been in a state of almost nonstop adrenaline-pumping excitement for almost two years, fuelled by the prospect that artificial intelligence is poised to bring about major changes to our lives.
But the focus on technology, and AI in particular, has concentrated Wall Street's fastest growth (up 39% in the past nine months) in just seven companies, while the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 languish behind them.
More than 60% of Wall Street's gains came from the “Magnificent Seven” — Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Apple and Tesla.
But over the past two weeks, that situation has begun to unravel.
First, after the assassination attempt on President Trump, opinion polls showed that he would win the election in a landslide, and so there was a concerted effort to reverse this trend.
Tech stocks fell, while the broader market rose.
The technology sector then recovered briefly after Joe Biden left office and it became clear the election would be much closer, but then succumbed to a major market sell-off after Elon Musk urged disgruntled Tesla investors to pull out.
The technology-heavy Nasdaq index fell its biggest in 18 months.
Trouble with the bubble
No one doubts the impact of artificial intelligence and its potential to transform the economy.
The hesitation is about the unbridled euphoria that has propelled stock prices to dizzying heights and whether it's time to face reality.
As Musk can attest, investors now want results after another disappointing earnings performance last week.
This all has a familiar ring to it.
Almost every new technology wave attracts investors hoping to get rich quick, creating an investment bubble.
And in most cases, only a handful of companies survive the inevitable collapse.
And often it's not the first to act that benefits.
One thing that's different this time is that the number of companies taking part in the election is relatively small.
And some of those companies, including Amazon and Alphabet (Google), were among the few to emerge victorious from the turn-of-the-century tech bubble.
Another big difference from previous bubbles is that most of the companies funding this race into the unknown are making huge profits.
Many other bubbles, including the tech bubble of 2000, were led by countless money-losing businesses that relied on investors to continually replenish their cash reserves and eventually ran out of patience.
Instead, this time around, it seems a huge imbalance in stock valuations is starting to work against the companies competing for AI dominance: Any significant drop in revenue or failure to deliver on promises would likely lead to a massive sell-off.
It is also driven by other factors.
The US is on the brink of implementing a series of interest rate cuts, which should make other stocks that have lagged behind the Wall Street boom much more attractive.
Large investors are likely to reduce their exposure to tech giants and put money elsewhere in the market to rebalance their portfolios.
What does this mean for us?
Any turmoil on Wall Street inevitably roils other markets, including our own.
However, the Australian Securities Exchange has relatively little exposure to tech companies.
While most domestic US technology companies are not directly involved in the development of AI, they will be affected by any significant rebalancing of the stock prices of major US technology companies.
This is what happens when something is no longer trendy this year.
Rather, the biggest threat to market stability comes from China.
The economy continues to slow and demand for raw materials, especially steelmaking inputs such as iron ore and metallurgical coal, is declining.
Iron ore prices fell below $100 a tonne this week, and copper prices, a barometer of global economic growth, are also trending lower.
This does not bode well for our large mining companies, the companies that dominate our markets, or our currency.
You might have to postpone your trip to Ireland because many of the world's largest technology companies have their profits here. This is no joke.
