The era of linear energy transition is over as AI demand and geopolitics reshape markets

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  • New journal published ahead of issue 44th The annual CERAWeek examines the impact of competing pressures and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty driving energy markets
  • The analysis comes amid one of the most historically important moments in global energy markets, the ongoing war in the Middle East.

new york, March 20, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — S&P Global today released new research examining how geopolitics and the competing priorities of affordability, reliability, competitiveness and decarbonization are reshaping the global energy landscape. This edition comes at a time of unprecedented instability in energy markets and escalating wars in the Middle East.

Looking forward to: Energy futures We bring together the world’s most advanced analysis from across S&P Global’s divisions to help leaders address the complex, multidimensional forces shaping energy markets.

Industry experts, officials, policy makers, and leaders from technology, finance, and industry will gather in Houston next week to discuss these topics at the 44th meeting.th a gathering of CERAWeek by S&P Global.

“CERAWeek comes at a pivotal time as the global energy system navigates ongoing challenges amid historic geopolitical uncertainty.” Dave Arnsberger, President, S&P Global Energy; “We are witnessing the rapid growth of AI and the enormous energy needed to power it, driving an unprecedented convergence between the technology and energy sectors, and the urgent need to ensure reliable and sustainable energy. In this rapidly evolving global landscape, it is more important than ever to bring our deep sector expertise, rigorous data and on-the-ground market knowledge to our clients.”

Key findings revealed:

  • The future of multidimensional energy: The global energy system is entering the age of AI and breaking new ground. S&P Global Energy estimates that global data center power demand could grow by 12% to 16% annually from 2025 to 2030. The energy landscape has changed significantly over the past 12 months, with accelerating electricity demand, shifts in global energy and climate policy, and rethinking energy companies’ portfolios and investment strategies.
  • Affordability of electricity bills at a crossroads: Electricity demand is increasing faster than expected, with AI and data centers emerging as key drivers. This has led to supply constraints, increased retail prices and regulatory responses, posing significant risks to public and private sector entities in the electricity value chain.
  • Plugging and politicization: Copper in a broken world: S&P Global predicts that global copper demand will increase by approximately 50%, from 28.4 million tonnes in 2025 to approximately 42 million tonnes in 2040. Materials and minerals critical to electrification, digital infrastructure and defense have become strategic pillars of our economy and national security. Governments are deploying export controls, strategic financing, and partnerships with allies to ensure access and build resilience.

“The days of seeing the energy transition as a linear path to decarbonization are over,” he said. Dr. Atul Arya, S&P Global Energy Senior Vice President and Chief Energy Strategist. “In their place will be the more pressing imperative of building an energy system that can sustain economic growth in an increasingly uncertain world. This change will have far-reaching implications for how businesses invest, how governments regulate, and how markets function.”

Each chapter in this journal also covers:

Looking forward to: Energy futures The latest version of S&P Global Fun research seriesa special report that takes a deep dive into the most important themes, trends and topics transforming the global economy.

The S&P Global Look Forward Council brings together leading experts from across the organization to deliver research that uncovers long-term trends and market transformation. Covering areas from capital and commodity markets to energy and sustainability, the council provides the forward-looking information S&P Global clients need to navigate uncertainty and make informed and confident decisions.

For full access Looking forward to: Energy futures Journal online, access: https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/look-forward/energy-futures

For more information about CERAWeek, please visit www.ceraweek.com.

Media contact:

Ora O’Brien
S&P Global
+1 857 407 8559
[email protected]

isabel allanwood
S&P Global
+44 7483 368 605
[email protected]

About S&P Global

S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) empowers businesses, governments and individuals to make confident decisions with trusted data, expertise and technology. We power essential intelligence through world-leading benchmarks, data and insights that help our customers plan confidently, act decisively and thrive economically in a rapidly changing global landscape.

From helping clients evaluate new investments across capital and commodity markets to guiding them through energy expansion, the acceleration of artificial intelligence and the evolution of public and private markets, we enable the world’s leading organizations to unlock opportunities, solve challenges and plan for tomorrow and today. For more information, please visit www.spglobal.com.

Source S&P Global



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