All eyes will be on Tesla on Wednesday.
Elon Musk’s automaker is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results, with investors keeping an eye on the company’s performance as it caps a particularly volatile year.
The company’s stock has been on a roller coaster ride in 2025, falling more than 50% from its peak in December to last April, due to headwinds such as declining auto sales, tariff concerns and Mr. Musk’s politics.
The stock has since risen more than 100%, spurred by a trade deal and Musk’s announcement that he is stepping down from the U.S. government.
But Wall Street remains wary of the challenges ahead for automakers, especially as car deliveries continue to decline. The company recently reported that fourth-quarter deliveries were down 16% year over year. Forecasters are also looking at potential challenges Tesla could face as it doubles down on AI and robotics projects.
Wall Street expects the company to report revenue of $25.1 billion and earnings of $0.34 per share for the quarter.
Here’s what analysts are saying ahead of the company’s earnings announcement:
JP Morgan: Lowers estimates due to lower deliveries
Tesla’s vehicle deliveries in the fourth quarter fell 16% from a year earlier. David Crane/Media News Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images
JPMorgan analysts wrote in a recent note to clients that Tesla’s stock price appears to be “increasingly divergent” from the business’ “rapidly declining revenue outlook.”
Analysts lowered their earnings per share forecast for Tesla from $0.48 to $0.43 after the company missed its fourth-quarter delivery target.
“The -16% year-over-year decline in deliveries in Q4 2025 is Tesla’s worst ever and exceeds its previous record -13% year-over-year decline,” the team led by Ryan Brinkman wrote, noting how the results contrast with the company’s goal of a “return to growth.”
The bank added that it still sees “significant downside potential” for the stock price.
Analysts reiterated their “underweight” rating and $150 price target on Tesla, implying a 65% decline in the stock from current levels.
Wells Fargo: “Fundamentals look weak”
Wells Fargo said it remains pessimistic about Tesla’s business fundamentals. Analysts point to lower profits for Tesla due to lower demand and the company’s price cuts, and say the company expects “moderate growth in vehicle deliveries” to continue this year.
The strategists also note that investors are paying a premium for Tesla’s fully self-driving technology and self-driving car fleet, writing that the stock appears to be priced as if “robotaxis domination is inevitable.”
However, they added that Tesla still faces challenges on the AI and robotics front, speculating that unless Tesla shifts strategy, the company risks falling into a “data disadvantage” and falling behind its competitors.
“2026 fundamentals look weak. If Robotaxi/Optimus fails to meet expectations, there will be no support left,” analysts said in a client note.
The bank reiterated its “underweight” rating on the stock, but raised its price target to $130 per share, citing the latest growth forecast for Tesla’s auto business. The price target implies a 70% downside from Tesla’s current levels.
UBS: Revenues from AI projects could be ‘further down the road’
UBS said the benefits from its AI efforts could be “even greater” in the future, similar to Tesla’s robot Optimus. Christoph Soeder/Photography partnership via Getty Images
Tesla stock already appears to be largely pricing in a bullish scenario that hinges on the success of the company’s robotaxi business and Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus.
“Thus, given the declining valuation of TSLA’s EV business, it is our view that the market is already assigning increasingly higher values to AI ventures. The TAM for these ventures may be large, but may also be further afield,” analysts wrote about expected returns from the company’s AI efforts.
The bank acknowledged that there were several positive catalysts that could help Tesla’s business this year, including updates to fully self-driving technology and the rollout of robotaxis in other U.S. cities.
“While we are rather positive about TSLA technology and advancements and believe it has the potential to be a strong milestone catalyst, we believe many of these ventures/developments are already (more than) factored into the stock price,” the analyst added.
UBS has a sell rating on the stock and a price target of $247, implying a 43% downside from current levels.
Oppenheimer: Robotaxis and the Challenge of Optimus
Oppenheimer highlighted two challenges facing Tesla. Demand for electric vehicles remains “soft” and the company’s progress in AI is “slower than expected,” Tesla wrote in a recent note.
The company noted that Tesla needs to make continued progress before it can begin production of Optimus. He also pointed out that demand for Tesla is declining, with sales declining for the second year in a row.
“We see downside risks to the 2026 consensus as we continue to expect Robotaxi performance and Optimus launch delays against the backdrop of a challenging EV demand environment for TSLA,” the company wrote.
Analysts gave Tesla a “perform” rating and lowered their fourth-quarter revenue estimates from $24.08 billion to $23.7 billion. The company also lowered its fiscal 2026 revenue forecast to $97.2 billion and its earnings per share forecast to $2.06.
Cantor: Expect a few AI catalysts
Tesla may expand its robotaxi fleet across the U.S. this year. Jonathan Lahr/Null Photography via Getty Images
Tesla’s annual global sales have been lackluster, with much of the recent decline due to the federal electric vehicle tax credit ending in September. Canter analysts said the impact could be mitigated as the company rolls out more affordable models and offers “enhanced autonomy” features.
They also highlighted potential catalysts that could boost Tesla stock in the future, such as the company rolling out full self-driving in China and Europe, expanding its robotaxi presence across the United States, and commercially launching Optimus in 2027.
Kantar reiterated its rating on Tesla as “overweight” and set a price target of $510, implying a 17% upside from current levels.
Wedbush Securities: Growth potential with AI
Wedbush has long been bullish on Tesla, but remains optimistic about the company’s AI and robotics projects.
The research firm said the company could reach a valuation of $2 trillion next year as it begins “full-scale production” of some of its self-driving and robotic products, and in a best-case scenario could reach $3 trillion.
The company pointed to its belief that Tesla may deploy CyberCab and Optimus bots in the coming years, as well as expectations that Tesla will expand its robotaxi fleet across the United States.
“We believe Tesla will own approximately 70% of the global self-driving market over the next 10 years, as no other company can match Tesla’s size and scope, coupled with its expanding AI footprint,” the team led by Dan Ives said in a note.
Wedbush reiterated his “outperform” rating and set a $600 price target for Tesla, implying a 38% upside from current levels.
