Researchers say video AI models have reached an inference ceiling that can’t be solved simply by increasing training data.

AI Video & Visuals


An international research team has released the largest dataset for video inference to date. This is approximately 1,000 times larger than the previous alternative. The results show that even Sora 2 and Veo 3.1 fall far short of humans when it comes to reasoning tasks.

Whether video models can solve puzzles, predict physical trajectories, or classify objects according to rules has rarely been studied in a systematic way. There weren’t enough large datasets in this area, so previous benchmarks included most of the test data, but no actual training data.

A consortium of more than 50 researchers from 32 institutions, including the University of California, Berkeley, Stanford University, Harvard University, and the University of Oxford, wants to change that. Their Very Big Video Reasoning (VBVR) suite includes over 2 million images and nearly 1 million video clips across 200 carefully selected tasks. Nine existing benchmarks contribute approximately 12,800 samples. In addition to test data, VBVR also provides 1 million training samples for the first time.

The tasks follow a taxonomy based on theories of human cognition, from Aristotle’s cognitive abilities to Kant’s categories of mind. Researchers classify them into five groups: abstraction, knowledge, perception, spatiality, and transformation. Each category runs on a parameterized task generator that can generate thousands of different instances. Every task requires a unique solution and cannot be solved from a single static image.

Ten sample tasks that demonstrate video frame sequences with text prompts, including puzzles, grid navigation, object sorting, and ball physics simulations.
Examples of tasks from the VBVR dataset, ranging from shape recognition and maze navigation to physics simulation. Each task requires multiple levels of visual reasoning. |Image: Wang et al.

Sora 2 reaches about half of human performance

VBVR bench results are not very good. The overall human score is 0.974. The top proprietary model in this study, OpenAI’s Sora 2, manages just 0.546. Google Deepmind’s Veo 3.1 follows at 0.480, Runway Gen-4 Turbo at 0.403, and Kuaishou’s Kling 2.6 at 0.369. The open source models Wan2.2, CogVideoX, HunyuanVideo, and LTX-2 range from 0.273 to 0.371.

VBVR-Bench intentionally skips using language models as decisions. Because most tasks have a single correct answer, rule-based scores directly measure spatial accuracy, path accuracy, and logical validity. The researchers verified that these automated scores reliably reflected real-world quality by checking against human judgment, and found very high statistical agreement.

Two scatterplots comparing automatic evaluation scores and human preference win rates for nine video models. Regression lines and high correlation coefficients are shown, respectively.
A comparison of automatic scoring and human judgment for in-domain and out-of-domain tasks. A strong match confirms that the rule-based evaluation is reliable. |Image: Wang et al.

Fine-tuned open source model beats any proprietary system

The most surprising discovery came from VBVR-Wan2.2, a finely tuned version of Wan2.2. The overall score jumps to 0.685, an 84.6 percent improvement over the base model and outperforming every proprietary system in the lineup.

However, research on scaling tells a more complex story. Performance on familiar task types increases to 0.771 at about 400,000 training examples, but then hits a wall. For completely new task types, the highest value is 0.610, but there is still a difference of 15 percentage points. Researchers believe this is a fundamental bottleneck in current video generation architectures, and suggest that throwing more data at the problem will not solve the problem.

Comparison of three parts of the generated video sequence. It shows successful tasks with VBVR-Wan2.2 and failed tasks with Sora 2, emergency behavior, and error cases such as duplicate agents and wrong solution paths.
Qualitative comparison between VBVR-Wan2.2 and Sora 2 on the same task. VBVR-Wan2.2 follows instructions more precisely, but still struggles with long sequences. |Image: Wang et al.

If the instructions cannot be followed, the model will not be able to reason

A qualitative analysis that directly compares VBVR-Wan2.2 and Sora 2 provides important insights. If the model freely rewrites the scene during generation (swapping the background, layout, object identity), the intermediate states become unreliable and the inferences built on them break down.

For example, in a delete task, Sora 2 performs unnecessary relocations after deleting the target object, while VBVR-Wan2.2 only performs what is requested. In rotation tasks, Sora 2 cannot tell the difference between the target area and the object being manipulated. VBVR-Wan2.2 also features new features beyond training, such as consistent completion strategies for symmetric tasks. Still, long sequences will cause flickering and overlap.

Cognitive skills do not develop equally across models

Correlation analysis across all models revealed some interesting patterns. Models that are better at knowledge tasks also tend to be better at spatial tasks, which is consistent with neuroscience research on the hippocampus and its dual role in navigation and concept learning.

On the contrary, it is not intuitive. Strong knowledge performance actually correlates with weak perception. Although abstraction is not positively correlated with other abilities, models that are good at abstraction tasks actually tend to be weak at transformations and spatial reasoning.

A heatmap showing the Pearson correlation values ​​between five cognitive categories (Abstraction, Knowledge, Perception, Spatiality, and Transformation), color-coded from red for negative correlations to blue for positive correlations.
Correlation matrix of the five cognitive abilities across all models tested. Knowledge and spatiality are positively correlated, whereas knowledge and perception are strongly negatively correlated. |Image: Wang et al.

The complete dataset, benchmark toolkit, and model are publicly available at video-reason.com. The researchers emphasize that architectural advances such as state tracking and self-correction mechanisms will be needed to exceed the performance ceilings they identified.

Back in September 2025, research involving Google Deepmind suggested that Google’s Veo 3 video model had surprisingly versatile zero-shot capabilities, allowing it to solve mazes, find symmetries, and simulate physical relationships without any task-specific training. The researchers took this as an early sign that video models could become a universal foundation for machine vision, just as large-scale language models already serve as the backbone of text processing. Some, including DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis, believe the video model could eventually become the basis of the global model.

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