Morning wrap: Oil rises above $90 as China’s AI weighs on tech stocks.

📈 US Stock Market (Wall Street)

• Wall Street trading ended sharply lower on Friday. It covered almost the entire market.

• Dow Jones index fell 0.8%, S&P500 falls 1%meanwhile The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.4%..

• The strongest selling pressure was concentrated in the technology sectorwhere Netflix ended the day down 7%. Following disappointing quarterly results.

🌍 Geopolitics and Middle East conflict

• The situation in the Middle East remains the focus of investors’ attention..

• US conducts air strikes for 9 consecutive nights Regarding Iranian targets.

• According to Centcomthe purpose of these actions is weaken Iran’s military powerincluding the ability to conduct operations against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz region.

• Conflict is gradually escalating to other parts of the region.

• Missile launched from Kuwait towards Iran, An explosion occurred in the south of the country,moreover Attacks on US-related targets in the Gulf (including Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain).

• Rising tensions raise risk of further military escalation and Disruption of energy commodity transportation.

• According to US sourcesPresident Donald Trump’s administration is preparing for the possibility of a broader conflict with Iran by accelerating military deployments to the region.

• Increased US military presence raises concerns The action may exceed the previously restricted operations.

• Iranian Foreign Minister reported that diplomatic negotiations should only begin after Tehran gains military superiorityindicates. not ready to compromise right away.

🛢️ Energy products

• additional factors Oil market tensions rise It was a report from Iran regarding Mines and explosions on two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz—One of the world’s most important oil transportation routes.

• Iran also launches new missile attack Located in the Persian Gulf region.

• Markets are rapidly pricing in rising geopolitical risks,about 20% of world oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Possible transportation restrictions could significantly reduce supply.

• As a result, Brent crude again exceeds the $90 per barrel leveland investors started Downplaying scenarios of further conflict escalation and Potential energy supply disruption.

🤖 Artificial Intelligence and Semiconductor Sector

• Artificial intelligence (AI) sector remains the second major market theme.

• Chinese AI company Moonshot has decided to temporarily restrict new registrations of its Kimi K3 model. Due to the demand for the product, Exceeded capacity of current computing infrastructure.

• China’s growing popularity of AI models raises concerns They thought they could compete effectively with Western solutions.

• Release of Kimi K3 triggered selling pressure on semiconductor stocks Due to investor concerns, More efficient, lower-cost AI models could slow spending on expensive infrastructureincluding GPU chips and solutions from companies such as Nvidia and Micron.

• Markets are beginning to reassess US dominance in the AI ​​raceI’m afraid of repeating it. “Deep Seek Moment”This is a situation where Chinese companies are demonstrating their ability to create advanced models at significantly lower costs.

🌏 Asian markets and monetary policy

• Asian stock markets closed with mixed emotionsand The strongest selling pressure hits South Korea and Japan.

• The KOSPI index fell by about 4.5%.primarily promoted by Decline in high-tech companies and semiconductor manufacturers.

• investors are afraid of it Previous enthusiasm for AI led to overestimationand development More efficient models change expectations for future chip demand.

• China stood out positively compared to the regionas identified by investors Potential beneficiaries of domestic AI development.

• At the same time, the market will be maintained Be cautious about the semiconductor sector This comes as the demand for AI infrastructure continues to be reassessed.

• The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left the standard lending rate unchanged. (1-year LPR maintained at 3.0%and 3.5% in 5 years), signaling Chinese government’s cautious approach to economic stimulus While maintaining the stability of the RMB.

💱 Forex Market

• Rising oil prices are putting obvious pressure on Asian currencies.

• analyst of MUFG note that Asian economies are major energy importers We are especially feeling the impact of more expensive products. import cost is high and Deterioration of trade balance.

• Continuing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East Increase pressure on local currencies,support Further appreciation of the US dollar (USD).

⛏️Precious metals

• In the commodity market, Gold remains under small pressurehovering Approximately $4,000 per ounce level.

• Silver is up about 1.3%.hold Above the $56 level.

🪙 Digital assets (cryptocurrency)

• Digital asset markets are under moderate downward pressure.

• Bitcoin fell by about 0.4%test $64,000 level.

• Ethereum shows higher stabilitylogging Slight decline around $1,850.