Glaciers in the Arctic Circle in Canada. Credit: John Goss of Dalhousie University
The glacier carved the deep valleys of Banff, eroding Ontario, depositing the fertile soil of the grasslands, continuing to transform the surface of the Earth. But how fast did the glacier carve into the landscape?
In research published in Natural Earth ScienceUniversity of Victoria (UVIC) geographer Sophie Norris and her international team provide the most comprehensive view of how quickly glaciers erode and change the landscape. Most importantly, their research also provides estimates of future erosion rates for over 180,000 glaciers around the world.
Using machine learning-based global analysis, Norris and her research team have worked to predict glacial erosion for 85% of modern glaciers. Those regression equations estimate that 99% of glaciers are erosed between 0.02 and 2.68 mm per year. This is the range of credit cards.
Modern glacial erosion rates displayed on a near-global scale were predicted. aglobal variation in predicted glacial erosion rates in RGI regions. All Antarctic glaciers (part of RGI Region 19) have been excluded due to incomplete data on surface velocity and ice thickness required to predict glacial erosion rates. b–dSouthern Andes (regional variation in predicted glacial erosion rates in RGI Region 17). b), Alaska, Western Canada, Northwest US (RGI zones 1 and 2; c), and South and Central Asia (RGI zones 13, 14, 15; d). Grid cells are assigned based on the most frequent erosion rate values that are classified into keys within each cell (for 100 km pixels) a; 50 km pixels b–d). Basemap from Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com). credit: Natural Earth Science (2025). doi:10.1038/s41561-025-01747-8
“The conditions that lead to erosion at the base of the glacier are more complicated than we previously understood,” Norris says. “Our analysis has included a number of variables: erosion rate, temperature, the amount of water under the glacier, the types of rocks in the area, and how much heat is generated from within the Earth.”
“Glacial erosion is extremely difficult to measure in active glacial environments, this study provides estimates for this process in remote areas around the world,” says John Goss of Dalhousie University.
Understanding the complex factors that cause erosion beneath glaciers is important information for monitoring landscape management, long-term nuclear waste storage, and sediment and nutrient movements around the world.
Norris began this work while Dalhousie's postdoctoral researcher and concluded it with Uvic. The team of collaborators includes Grenoble University Alpez (France), Dartmouth College (USA), Pennsylvania State University (USA), and University of California, Irvine (USA). This work was carried out in collaboration with Canadian nuclear waste management organizations and financially supported.
detail:
Sophie L. Norris et al, drivers of global glacial erosion rates; Natural Earth Science (2025). doi:10.1038/s41561-025-01747-8
Provided by Victoria University
Quote: Machine Learning predicts global glacial erosion rates with new accuracy (August 7, 2025) obtained from https://phys.org/news/2025-08-machine-global-glacier-glacier-erosion-recision.html.
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