What will the future of work look like in the age of artificial intelligence? As concerns grow around the world about job destruction and machines taking over human roles, a new report by Goldman Sachs suggests that machine-driven disruption could be widespread. According to a global investment bank, AI is expected to advance rapidly in the coming years, with nearly 25% of all working hours potentially being automated. While job losses are expected, the report says a full-scale employment collapse is unlikely.
The study, led by Goldman Sachs analysts Joseph Briggs and Sarah Dong, estimates that about a quarter of today’s business tasks could eventually be automated using AI technology. Based on data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the report outlines how AI is expected to reshape workplace dynamics, change job structures, and change the skills needed across industries.
AI will first hit white-collar jobs
According to the report, the impact of AI automation will be uneven. Certain sectors, especially white-collar industries that rely on mundane cognitive tasks, are likely to be disrupted faster and more deeply. Jobs involving data analysis, clerical work, basic coding, accounting, and legal research may be particularly vulnerable.
AI could improve labor productivity
Despite the predicted scale of automation, Goldman Sachs researchers do not predict a complete collapse in employment. “Our baseline prediction of a 15 percent increase in labor productivity due to AI and the historical relationship between technology-induced productivity gains and job losses suggest that 6 to 7 percent of jobs will be lost over the implementation period,” the researchers said.
Unemployment may rise before new jobs are created
The report also warns of the possibility of workers being displaced from their jobs before new roles are fully created, leading to a short-term rise in unemployment. Goldman Sachs estimates the peak increase in the unemployment rate to be about 0.6 percentage points, which would translate into about 1 million more unemployed people at the peak.
This analysis places AI within a broader historical context. Researchers argue that technological change has consistently been a major driver of long-term employment growth. “Today, only 40 percent of workers hold jobs that existed 85 years ago, suggesting that AI will create new roles while making others obsolete,” the researchers noted. “More than 6 million workers are now in computer-related jobs that did not exist 30 to 40 years ago, and an additional 8 million to 9 million are in roles made possible by the gig economy, e-commerce, content creation, and video games.”
In conclusion, the report suggests that the ultimate outcome will depend on how effectively workers, businesses, and governments adapt through reskilling, educating, and creating new types of jobs for an AI-driven economy.
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