00:00 josh
Listen, gold is slipping today, we know, we’ve talked about this. It was a powerful rally. It reached its peak above 55.95. Can you see that gathering? Will it continue in 2026? What do you tell your clients?
00:09 ben
Yeah, I mean, I think that’s exactly right. I think the last time we spoke was a little early in the beginning of this year. After drawing a parabola, he was saying that some risk should be expected. And I think that’s exactly what we’re seeing. And actually, I think that last person’s quote, you know, sums it up pretty well. You can see that there’s kind of a new AI premium built in for gold and silver. So it’s not just a store of value. Of course silver has industrial uses, but right now there is an AI premium on top and that is causing volatility. So we’re telling investors, “Listen, this is probably going to be more volatility than you’re used to.” However, if you look back a decade, there has been volatility in gold and silver. But the important thing to remember is that there are structural tailwinds. There are still big buyers, including central banks around the world. India is still starting to accept silver as collateral. That means the shift from the dollar to gold and silver continues, and it doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon.
00:58 josh
And Ben, about what’s going to happen with the gold price going forward. So this is a poly market and it looks like the gold price could be at 4,600 by the end of the month. And Bloomberg has a memo from Jefferies. It’s interesting so I’ll read it. They raised their price forecast for 2026, Ben, they’re going to 5,000, they were at 4,200, um, and said that we continue to see two major macro factors for gold. What they say is inflation and a weakening dollar, and hard assets are really the only option for investors and central banks concerned about these factors, they say. What do you think about it?
01:30 ben
That’s exactly right. In other words, that’s a freight train that won’t slow down any time soon. So everything else is ancillary, even something like an AI premium, which is part of the trade-off. Again, the decline in the dollar will occur over several decades. You know, this is not just a few quarters at a time. So we’re much closer to year-end 5,000μm per ounce of gold. Because, again, we’re just watching central banks vote with dollars. As you know, they’re selling bonds and buying gold, and that doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon.
01:54 josh
By the way, has Mr. Warsh’s appointment affected your long-term money expectations?
02:00 ben
This was interesting because the market obviously reacted very hawkishly. He was, you know, famous in 2010 as being anti-QE, and I said to investors, listen, back in 2010 it was easy to be anti-QE. Next, you must find a way to keep the interest rate constant. That means we can’t afford to pay the debt. He proposed the idea of yield curve control, which I think is interesting. He’s also very noteworthy about AI being deflationary, which I agree with. So we’re seeing it happen in real time, with a kind of agent function that confuses the software. It’s going to be very destructive, but it’s going to be very deflationary in the long run. Naturally, this could lead to lower interest rates. So I think the market is moving away a little bit from that overly hawkish narrative.
02:44 josh
When I talk to clients about gold, do I tell them I love the metal and the miners?
02:47 ben
Yes, absolutely. absolutely. Because miners have two things. First of all, many gold miners also mine other things. So what’s interesting about AI trading is that it’s starting to collide with the physical world, so to speak. That means silver, copper, and eventually uranium and rare earths. Miners are exposed to it all. So we tell our clients that it’s not just gold and silver, it’s miners, gold and silver miners, and even broader miners. we think.
03:08 josh
By the way, what do you think about the movement of silver?
03:10 ben
Now, here’s what’s interesting about silver. It was obviously a parabolic move and we didn’t expect it to go down a little bit, but people were saying it was trading like a meme stock. That’s true, especially the month-end trading method, which concentrated these types of trades during liquid market hours. It really looked like there was some manipulation going on under the hood. I know there were some big players who had shortstop positions. You know, I think comics were 300 to 1 in terms of paper and physical shipping. If you look at the cash market, as you know, most of the selling occurred in the paper futures market. Shanghai Physical was hardly traded. So, I, you know, this has actually affected past, um, you know, operations within the silver market. You know, back in 2015, that was the case. So I think this was a buying opportunity for investors, and I think we saw that as well. You know, investors looked at this and said the very fact that this trades as it is and looks like manufactured fashion supports a long-term narrative for owning it.
04:00 josh
We’re talking about precious metals, but we’d also like to hear your thoughts on cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has fallen about 20% this year. What’s going on there, Ben? What explains this?
04:09 ben
As you know, Bitcoin is interesting. I think we’ve talked to a lot of clients. I think precious metals have sucked a lot of the air out of that industry. I mean, I think people were like, “Okay, the party’s over there.” So, that’s where the party is. You’re right, it’s being traded as something like a meme. You’ve probably seen some of the hot money go into valuables. That being said, I would be surprised if Bitcoin doesn’t rise above 100 grand by mid-to-late summer. Well, you know, I think the tailwinds remain.
04:36 josh
What are the tailwinds you see there?
04:38 ben
Back to the topic of derogatory transactions. You know, I think we’re also seeing more and more building out blockchain rails more broadly. I’ve talked about this a lot, but by some act of genius, we’re quickly reaching a point where capital efficiency starts to become very important. And as we know, blockchain remains the most efficient way to move capital around the world. It took a while for the big banks to get there, but the rails are in place and I think it will support Bitcoin. That’s certainly what I thought a year ago, but I think we’re finally at the point where blockchain technology is starting to take off on Main Street.
05:20 josh
Last question. When you’re talking to a client and they say, “Ben, okay, how do I put this portfolio together?” What I want is gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies. How do I allocate it? What do you say to them? What’s your advice?
05:32 ben
So we’re big fans of diversification. I mean, we actually even launched an ETF to do exactly that, but we’re telling them, you know, you want to own gold, silver, and miners as well. Perhaps, to a lesser extent, you also want to own Bitcoin or Ethereum. I would tell them to consider that risk. Well, you know, think of this as a long-term deal. So instead of trading it as an active exposure, just like you do for your clients, rather than trading it as a dollar cost, it’s part of your real asset bucket or your alternative bucket.
06:01 josh
Ben, as always, it’s great to see you, especially on set. thank you.
06:04 ben
Thank you, Josh.
06:06 josh
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