How do you treat “friends”?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington this week will bring the polarities of India-U.S. relations into full play. Despite both sides’ enthusiasm for stronger ties between democracies, U.S. policymakers say India, whose interests often differ from those of the U.S., could become a full-fledged ally and ally. is low. Yet they want to bring India closer.
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It’s always easier to deal with close allies. But equally important for the United States is learning how to work better with major powers that share some interests and diverge others.
India, which borders China, is the fifth largest economy in the world. The United States recently replaced China as India’s main trading partner. But India’s main arms supplier is Russia, and while India buys cheap Russian oil, it abstains from UN votes condemning its aggression against Ukraine. Relations with China are also a mixture of confrontation and cooperation.
India prides itself on being the world’s largest democracy, but Mr Modi’s Hindu nationalism has led to discrimination and violence against the country’s Muslim minority, as well as the suppression of media and opposition voices. ing.
Still, it’s clear that the Biden administration sees India as a rising counterforce to China’s regional dominance, and its determination to manage differences while forging common interests.
There is no shortage of glitz and flair, hugs and handshakes as the US government lavishly welcomes its increasingly important partner in Asia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India.
But the most important aspects of the visit, including his speech in parliament and Thursday’s state dinner, may be forgotten in the atmosphere.
It means that U.S. policymakers know that India is unlikely to become a full-fledged ally or ally, despite both sides’ genuine enthusiasm for strengthening ties between their democracies. is.
why i wrote this
a story focused on
It’s always easier to deal with close allies. But equally important for the United States is learning how to work better with major powers that share some interests and diverge others.
The country is one of many strategically located “friendly nations,” nations with common interests peculiar to allies, but also hostile interests, priorities, and even values. countries that have Washington wants to bring the two countries as close together as possible. And Russia’s war on Ukraine and the U.S.’s escalating conflict with China have made this delicate task even more urgent.
Other friendly countries include South Africa and Saudi Arabia.
But India may be paramount to Washington’s major long-term task of finding ways to compete with China and, if necessary, to contain China without risking head-on conflict.
Kevin Lamarck/Reuters
India shares a border with China, a border area where violence escalated a few years ago. It is a member of the so-called Quad (four-nation security dialogue) along with the United States, Australia and Japan.
It overtook China earlier this year to become the world’s most populous country. China’s economy is now the fifth largest in the world, and while it is still much smaller than China, it is growing faster. Annual trade with the United States has increased to about $130 billion, with the United States recently replacing China as India’s main trading partner.
Discussions on joint technology projects in areas such as semiconductors, aerospace and artificial intelligence also began this year.
But that’s the friend part of the friendversary.
“Enemy” part
Turning to adversaries, India’s main arms supplier is Russia. This is the continuation of India’s prominent and often overtly pro-Moscow role in the non-aligned movement during the Cold War. Modi has voiced his frustration with the Ukraine war, but India abstained from a UN vote condemning the aggression. Ignoring calls for sanctions against Russia, Russia eagerly stocks up on discounted oil.
Relations with China are also a mixture of confrontation and cooperation. India and China sit side by side in the BRICS economic alliance, which also includes Russia, South Africa and Brazil.
India prides itself on being the world’s largest democracy, but Mr. Modi’s Hindu nationalism has led to discrimination and violence against the country’s 200 million Muslim minority, leading to media and opposition political campaigns. It also leads to suppression of political influence.
Still, Modi’s state visit shows that the U.S. government sees India as a rising counterforce to China’s regional dominance and that the Biden administration is determined to find ways to forge common interests with India while reconciling differences. It is proof that it is fixed.
It’s a particularly difficult balance for a US president who has made the struggle between democracy and authoritarianism a central theme of his foreign policy. Modi’s human rights record and response to the war in Ukraine will certainly be covered during his visit, but in public it is only glimpsed, if at all.
Kevin Lamarck/Reuters
Still, given bipartisan support for a firm stance on China and corporate enthusiasm for expanding economic ties, President Joe Biden’s embrace of Modi is unlikely to face much backlash.
But that is not the case for friendly nations South Africa and Saudi Arabia in other parts of the world where China and Russia are expanding their influence.
South Africa has deep economic ties with the United States, with nearly $11 billion in annual trade, including $3 billion in tariff-free exports under Washington’s African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) initiative.
But South Africa also resists condemning the aggression against Ukraine. It recently held joint military exercises with Russia and China. There are also reports, citing US intelligence officials, that the US is sending weapons to Russia.
The Biden administration is clearly concerned that major diplomatic clashes will undermine efforts to deepen US influence in Africa. Officials said they were still waiting for the results of an investigation by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa into the reported arms shipment.
But a bipartisan group in Congress is now urging the White House to move the AGOA annual meeting from South Africa to elsewhere on the African continent.
Friction with Saudi Arabia
Feelings for Saudi Arabia are even stronger.
A key ally of the United States for decades, it remains dependent on the United States for its security and military equipment.
However, the area where friction occurs is increasing.
Most tragic was the 2018 murder of US-based Saudi author Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. But Saudi Arabia has also strengthened its ties with Russia and China. And when pressured by the US government to produce more oil after the Russian invasion, Saudi Arabia cut production instead.
Again, Mr. Biden seems reluctant to risk the relationship worsening. Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has become a major political voice in the Arab world, and a sweeping rift will do more than just fuel China’s growing influence. It is feared that
It will be particularly difficult for Mr. Biden to find common ground with Saudi Arabia. He said he was appalled by Khashoggi’s murder and had turned Saudi Arabia into a “pariah state” during the presidential election.
Still, the broad focus on Russia, the United States’ main international rival, and above all China, seems to have concluded that a change in approach was necessary. In other words, the US government need not see Saudi Arabia as a key ally for decades, but instead as a key friend.
