How will artificial intelligence affect the future of work? The OECD’s 2023 Employment Outlook report estimates that 60% of workers fear losing their jobs due to AI. Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Throck believes that the use of AI will still require human judgment, so it won’t replace all workers across the economy.
Apollo Global Management is the parent company of Yahoo Finance.
video transcript
– Torsten, as we talk about the dynamics of the job market, I want to switch gears and talk about something you’ve been doing a lot of research on as well. It’s AI and its impact on the workplace here. In some of the studies and studies you’ve done, you’ve seen a kind of division among workers in terms of their concerns about AI.
Well, we’re just looking at the numbers here. 60% of his workers fear he will lose his job to AI in the next decade. Nearly two-thirds of employees using AI in finance and manufacturing say AI makes their job more enjoyable. So what are your thoughts on long-term labor market trends?
Torsten Srock: Yes, this is a really important question, Julie, because I think we need to take it very seriously. This is a very important productivity gain for the US economy and the global economy. The difficulty today is that there is certainly a lot of uncertainty about what that means at this point. But, exactly as you stressed, what was mentioned in that OECD study was to ask consumers. Let’s ask the workers. what do they think about it
And there are certainly many ways AI can help improve productivity in many ways, especially in manufacturing and finance, two obvious areas where AI can be used. It’s still very difficult to quantify how important this is, but it’s very clear that this is a major trend with very significant implications for the economy as a whole. What matters most is not just how productive we all are, but also the broader perspective when looking at how everything is going in terms of investments, capex, companies and how they are organized.
– And many worry about AI replacing AI in the workplace, or replacing the plate at work, for example. And will everything be robotic? I mean, there’s Elon Musk, but oh my god, I just had a fart in my head—
– Tesla bot.
– Yes, it’s a Tesla bot, but it has another name. It has a name inside. How concerned should people be about this?
Torsten Srock: Well, I know this is the new shiny thing that we are all spending so much time on right now. And as we all agree, it’s hard at the moment. But I still think this is something. Not all of us will be replaced in the manufacturing financial system or indeed in the broader economy. I think this should be considered as a useful tool.
But if you visit ChatGPT today, just write who you are and then write your name. I was really surprised at how many mistakes this meant when it came to collecting the internet and figuring out what was there. But even from that perspective, I have not been very impressed with this so far. Because before you send this to your clients, before you send it to your customers, before you replace your telemarketing assistant, there’s always a human judgment in terms of what it offers.
So I’m still thinking let’s see how we do with this. It could be useful as a tool. But to Diana’s question, I still don’t think jobs will be replaced as much as many people fear. Because in the end, human judgment will be an important part. Especially when this is placed in front of the customer, so that the customer can be served in an appropriate manner.
– Torsten, if you zoom out further, when you look back at the history of technological innovation in the business cycle, you think about things like the Industrial Revolution and the Internet Revolution. How are you planning on placing this? And what do we tend to see when this kind of massive innovation hits the economy?
Torsten Srock: Well, this is also a very important question, but what remains uncertain today is whether this is the Internet, or Y2K, or central bank digital currency. Neither of the past two things have been very successful.
So from that dimension and from a very high level, as you are asking Julie, I still think it’s a problem. I still think this will be another tool in the way we all work in financial markets, in journalism, everywhere, basically trying to find ways to make things better. But maybe it also takes the judgment necessary to decide if this is the right way to do things. Should things be framed the way ChatGPT or me or these generative models? How they generated things requires human judgment, which I still think is impossible to replace. Because to do that, it’s not just a matter of determining if the facts are true or not, because maybe the facts are true, but the context in which they’re presented, done, or put into production may not be appropriate.
Therefore, I believe that human beings will continue to be absolutely necessary. So the bright message in this discussion of AI is that I don’t think so. In that sense, Julie, I agree with her OECD report that you highlighted. I agree with this view that this will probably create more jobs, not fewer.
– Torsten, I never even considered searching myself on ChatGPT. And just did. Oh, I was like, let’s log in, search, and see. It was written at the time of the last update in September 2021.
Torsten Srock: Can you see through?
– That’s why I doubt it. I mean, I’m a talented journalist.
– oh that’s nice
– I am grateful.
Torsten Srock: Please check up to here.
– I am very satisfied because it does not make me feel my age.
– So in that case, I think it works fine.
