Job seekers often feel stuck in an AI doom loop.
Chatbots are upending the white-collar 9-to-5, agents are rewriting the rules for basic tasks, and executives can’t stop talking about improving productivity. However, if you’re currently struggling to find a new role, new research has found that technology is likely not the main culprit.
An analysis by the Yale Budget Institute found that AI has had a modest impact on the U.S. job market since the release of ChatGPT in 2022. So far, AI has changed jobs more often than it has eliminated them, the researchers said. This pattern is similar to the effects of other major advances, such as the Internet and computers.
The Yale team bluntly stated that the use of AI is “unrelated” to changes in employment or unemployment.
AI will change jobs, but it won’t eliminate them
While it may not be erasing jobs yet, AI has certainly changed the nature of those jobs. Business Insider heard from Americans who vibe-coded solutions to their biggest problems, even with no technology experience, and business leaders who are using chatbots to streamline their workflows.
Researchers at Yale University found that a reliable benchmark for how AI will actually impact employment is to compare it to other technological advances, such as the introduction of computers in the 1980s and the dawn of the Internet in the 1990s. The effects of AI will sharpen slightly in the months after launch, but it won’t be the kind of work revolution pioneered by some leaders in Silicon Valley.
Some sectors have been hit harder than others. Finance and business are more vulnerable than professions like nursing. But occupational turnover, which measures the growth and decline of the job market, is following a similar trend to other moments in technology history and has not caused a major reset.
The Yale report also found that high exposure to AI did not significantly impact job seekers’ length of unemployment. Job seekers who have been unemployed for less than 5 weeks have a relatively similar trend line to job seekers who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more. The number of unemployed people whose jobs have been automated has also fluctuated considerably.
That’s not to say the job market is rosy. Shortage of vacancies, widespread hiring freeze, And layoffs (which some CEOs say have a little to do with AI) are forcing people of all ages out of the office. Also, relatively low turnover rates mean there are few open positions. After months of disappointing results, payrolls have rebounded slightly this summer, but the decline may have more to do with high interest rates than technology disruption.
Big companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are also rethinking the pricing of their products, meaning companies will have to spend even more money if they want their employees to use AI regularly. And, as Business Insider reports, much of the current use of AI in the corporate world is not leading to significant profits or productivity gains.
Chatbots in the office are still in their infancy, and the technology is evolving rapidly. But it is unlikely to cause a sudden wave of unemployment, at least for now.