Hong Kong
CNN
—
According to Goldman Sachs economists, 300 million full-time jobs around the world could be automated in some way by the latest wave of artificial intelligence that has spawned platforms like ChatGPT.
In a report on Sunday, they predicted that 18% of global operations could be computerized, with the impact more acute in developed countries than in emerging markets.
This is partly because white-collar workers are believed to be more at risk than manual workers. Economists said government workers and lawyers were expected to be hit the hardest, compared to “little effects” seen in physically demanding occupations such as construction and repair work, as well as outdoor occupations. rice field.
About two-thirds of current jobs in the US and Europe are “exposed to some degree of AI automation,” and up to a quarter of all jobs could be performed entirely by AI, the bank said. I’m guessing.
The labor market could face significant disruption if generative artificial intelligence “delivers its promised capabilities,” the economists write. The term refers to the technology behind ChatGPT, the chatbot sensation that has taken the world by storm.
With the ability to answer prompts and write essays, ChatGPT is already prompting many companies to rethink how people should work every day.
This month, the developer announced GPT-4, the latest version of the software behind the bot. The platform quickly impressed early users with its ability to simplify coding, quickly create his website from a simple sketch, and pass exams with high scores.
Economists at Goldman Sachs write that such further use of AI is likely to lead to job losses. But they noted that technological innovations that initially displaced workers have historically also created more employment in the long run.
The workplace may change, but widespread AI adoption could ultimately boost labor productivity, boosting global GDP by 7% each year over the next decade, according to Goldman Sachs. It is said that there is
“The impact of AI on the labor market is likely to be significant, but most jobs and industries are only partially automated, so AI is likely to complement rather than replace it.” added the economists.
“Most workers are in occupations that are partially exposed to AI automation, and after the introduction of AI, they will devote at least some of the liberated capacity to production activities that increase output. ”
For example, among the US workers expected to be affected, between 25% and 50% of the workload is “fungible,” the researchers added.
“The combination of massive labor cost cuts, new job creation, and productivity gains for undisplaced workers will lead to labor productivity levels that have followed the emergence of early commodity technologies such as electric motors and personal computers. It increases the chances of a boom.”
— CNN’s Nicole Goodkind contributed to this report.
