When Congress held a series of hearings on employment and technological progress in October 1955, the heads of railroad workers’ organizations took the stage to express their concerns about automation. “There is widespread anxiety among workers who appreciate new technological advances,” said WP Kennedy, president of the Brotherhood of Railroad Workers. “Will it result in increased unemployment rather than economic security?”
The same question may have been raised at last week’s congressional hearing on artificial intelligence. In effect, it was.
Sam Altman, CEO of San Francisco startup OpenAI, testified before members of a Senate subcommittee last Tuesday, urging the government to regulate the burgeoning AI industry. Congressional leaders shared concerns about the threats AI could pose, including the spread of misinformation and invasion of privacy.
One of the concerns they stressed the most was the loss of jobs. Who will be responsible for protecting workers whose jobs may be transformed or even eliminated by generative AI?
Connecticut Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal said his own “greatest long-term nightmare” could be caused by AI before telling Mr. Altman, “Tell me what your worst nightmare is.” It has been declared that it is a serious job loss.
“There will be an impact on employment,” Mr. Altman said. “I think it will require industry-government partnerships, but most of that is government action.”
Altman, like many other employers unleashing new technologies into the world, has called on governments to assume much of the responsibility for helping workers through AI’s disruption of the labor market. It is not yet clear whether the mission will be carried out.
Goldman Sachs recently calculated that generative AI could automate the activities of 300 million full-time jobs worldwide. IBM’s CEO has already said he expects AI to impact the placement of white-collar clerical staff, making up to 30 percent of certain roles obsolete and creating new ones. ing. The White House invited workers on Tuesday to discuss their experiences with automation and surveillance technology in the workplace.
Historically, when jobs are lost due to automation, the economic impact has tended to be offset by the creation of new jobs. Generative artificial intelligence could boost U.S. labor productivity growth by nearly 1.5 percent annually over a decade, according to a Goldman report. That could increase annual global gross domestic product by 7%. It can create creative professions that were previously unimaginable.
But it will create immense instability for displaced workers. A study by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Boston University found that automation is a major contributor to income inequality in the United States. They estimate that between 50% and 70% of the change in the US wage structure since 1980 has been due to reduced earnings for blue-collar workers and office workers due to automation.
A study by economist Daron Acemoglu of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) found the steepest declines in employment in the nation’s most heavily robotized regions, especially in the manufacturing regions of the Midwest. It is said that
AI makers tend to focus on the technology’s potential for job creation, but many workers face painful confusion as they try to train and find new, well-paid and challenging roles. will experience
“There has never been a time when the potential scope of automation is so wide,” said Harry Holzer, an economist at Georgetown. “Historically, when a job is automated, something new is found. The scary thing about AI is that it can simply grow and take over more tasks. .”
According to Goldman’s research, employees in administrative and administrative support may be particularly concerned about generative AI. And many of them have already expressed their concerns.
“It’s definitely scary,” said Justin Felt, 41, a customer service representative from Pittsburgh who has worked for Verizon Fios for nearly 12 years. He said he feels employers aren’t being completely open with employees about how they’re incorporating generative AI into customer support roles. “It’s definitely taking our jobs away.”
These technologies are rapidly permeating the workplace. BuzzFeed has just introduced a chatbot that provides recipe recommendations, McKinsey is using his AI to help clients fix technical bugs, and accounting firm KPMG is using his ChatGPT. is generating code. So some economists are starting to make suggestions to protect the workers most likely to be affected.
For example, workers could benefit from paid leave schemes that allow them to leave work to learn new skills. Germany already has a similar program, which allows workers in most German states to take at least five days of paid leave per year for educational courses, and the Labor Minister recently plans to expand the initiative. said.
Another possibility is a transfer tax levied on employers when workers’ jobs have been automated but have not been retrained, prompting companies to retrain their workers. may have a stronger tendency to Governments could also offer financial incentives to AI companies to develop products aimed at augmenting workers’ jobs, rather than replacing them. For example, an AI that provides research to TV screenwriters, but doesn’t draft screenplays (which are likely to be of low quality).
“If governments set the agenda for developing technologies that are more complementary to humans, it will be very important,” Acemoglu said. “Industry is looking to the government for leadership.”
The government’s previous efforts to help workers during periods of disengagement have had mixed results. A study of Trade Adjustment Assistance (a U.S. government program that provides financial assistance and training to workers displaced by trade) found that manufacturers who temporarily left the workforce in the early 2000s of employees were found to have not yet received assistance. They regained their income years later compared to workers who lost their jobs but were not eligible for TAA assistance.
Many economists say employers could also play a role in helping displaced workers.
“Companies are always asking governments to deal with job losses,” said Simon Johnson, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and co-author of the book “Power and Progress” with Acemoglu. “But Microsoft and Alphabet are in control of where they put their technical resources.”
Workers can benefit from employers’ apprenticeships and retraining programs, for example. Accounting giant PwC recently announced a $1 billion investment in generative AI, including an effort to train 65,000 employees on how to use AI. What happened was that the CEO visited the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland, and heard the following story.A constant debate about generative AI
“Many of us who came out of that room noticed something had changed,” recalls Joe Atkinson, the company’s chief product and technology officer.
Atkinson said PwC employees have expressed concerns over layoffs, especially as the company seeks to automate roles with generative AI, but Atkinson said PwC is hiring new tech skills. He stressed that the jobs will change, but the jobs will not change, as he plans to retrain his staff. will not be excluded.
Some tech companies offer their employees courses in cloud computing, cybersecurity and generative AI. Among them is IBM, which has also introduced apprenticeships to train workers for high-paying jobs in areas such as software development and data, including those without a four-year degree. Chemistry. A company called C3 AI offers bonuses of $250 to $1,500 to 1,000 employees who earn certifications in technical areas such as AI and cloud computing. KPMG is committed to training all employees to use generative AI.
Community colleges are also stepping up their focus on AI. Miami-Dade College has received more than $15 million in grants for technology programs, and part of the funding will be used to open two of her centers focused on preparing students for careers in AI. was used for Houston Community College recently announced a Bachelor’s degree in AI and Robotics, and Southwest Tennessee Community recently announced a Bachelor’s degree in AI and Robotics. The university is working on creating an associate degree. The Association of American Community Colleges has launched an AI incubator network focused on teaching faculty about AI and helping colleges earn AI degrees.
“As Wayne Gretzky once said when asked about his success, ‘I skate as far as the puck goes,'” said Dennis Natali, a professor at Pikes Peak State University in Colorado. Pikes Peak State University in Colorado announced plans to roll out an AI certificate this year. “Our university is constantly assessing the workforce situation and preparing to assist displaced workers.”
Some experts are optimistic about the technology transition as universities and companies scramble to retrain workers. They point out that throughout history people have feared technological progress, but often benefited in the end, going back to the Luddite weavers who protested against the mechanization of the textile industry.
But that doesn’t mean the transition period will go smoothly. McKinsey AI expert Michael Chui said even the Luddites have stagnated for decades.
“For anyone who has lost their job involuntarily, it’s a difficult time,” he says. “In a way, the Luddites were right about the risk.”
