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Diving overview:
- Demand for artificial intelligence hardware and semiconductors led to a 7% year-on-year increase in global air cargo demand in June, according to a July 3 report from Xeneta.
- Volumes associated with AI-related hardwareXeneta said it is making up for the decline in e-commerce traffic, which has been the main driver of air cargo for the past few years, especially on the Asia-Pacific to North America corridor.
- “The magnitude of the impact of AI is easily underestimated, as it represents a small portion of total air cargo volume, or less than 10% of the amount of cargo flown,” said Niall van de Wouw, chief air cargo officer. “However, the facts supporting air cargo’s role as a key driver of growth are undeniable.”
Dive Insight:
AI-driven demand led to a significant increase in rates from Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia to North America, with rates surging 41% and 42%, respectively, in the last week of June compared to late February, Xeneta reported.
Taiwan, which manufactures the majority of the world’s advanced chips, reported GDP growth of 15% in the first quarter of 2026, according to Xeneta. This is the fastest quarterly growth rate in nearly 50 years.
Meanwhile, global semiconductor sales doubled year-on-year to 106% in April, Xeneta reported. This surge is the largest since the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization began keeping records in 1986. Making the Trans-Pacific Trade Lane the strongest corridor in 2026.
Although all air cargo growth engines will eventually stop, Van de Wouu said airlines should be able to benefit from the AI boost while it lasts. Meanwhile, demand shows little sign of slowing in the short term.
“Now that AI is here, no one knows how long it will last,” Van de Wouu said. “Although the investment cycle for AI could take a hit, which could suddenly change the demand we see and increase risk, there is no indication yet that AI acceleration will plateau and depress air cargo demand.”
June by the numbers
7%
Year-on-year increase in global air cargo volume
$3.40
Average spot rate per kilogram up 38% YoY
41%
Average spot rate increase from Northeast Asia to North America for the week starting February 23 to the week starting June 22
42%
Average spot rate increase from Southeast Asia to North America for the week starting February 23 to June 22
twenty five%
The average spot rate from Europe to North America decreased from the week starting February 23rd to the week starting June 22nd.
62%
Global dynamic load factor, which measures the volume and weight of cargo transported and available capacity, increased by 3 percentage points year over year
Trans-Pacific spot rates are on the rise, The story is different for the Europe to North America laneAccording to Xeneta, it fell 25% between late February and the first week of June.
Van de Wouu stressed that there is no one-to-one correlation between fuel price increases and tariffs. Instead, airfares are determined by supply and demand, not fuel. For example, the Iran war has increased the price of jet fuel, but transatlantic spot rates have fallen.
“We have been encouraging shippers to introduce alternative floating mechanisms that are not dependent on the cost of jet fuel and are based on what carriers are actually paying airlines,” Van de Wouu said.
However, Zeneta reported that overall spot rates are easing as production capacity is restored in the Middle East and tensions begin to calm down.
“While at the beginning of the year we did not think that global air cargo spot rates would rise by +38% in June, we now see that they are starting to fall as expected, albeit at a slower pace than the rise,” Van de Wouu said.
Editor’s note: This article first appeared in the Logistics Weekly Newsletter. Sign up here.
