- By 2030Surveyed executives expect AI spending to shift from efficiency to innovation
- AI productivity gains expected to increase by 42%, driving reinvestment for growth
- 67% of respondents expect AI to eliminate resource and skill constraints
Armonk, New York, January 19, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Nearly eight in 10 (79%) executives surveyed expect AI to make a significant contribution to their company’s revenue by 2030, up from 40% today, but few (24%) have a clear idea of where that revenue will come from, according to a new study from the IBM (NYSE: IBM) Institute for Business Value.
enterprise 2030
Despite this uncertainty, investment is accelerating. Respondents predict that investments in AI will jump approximately 150% between now and 2030. At the same time, 68% of executives surveyed are concerned that AI initiatives will fail because they are not integrated with core business activities.
“AI will not only support business, it will define business,” said Mohammad Ali, senior vice president at IBM Consulting. “By 2030, winning companies will weave AI into every decision and operation. They will have strong AI assets, move faster than their competitors, bring innovation to market faster, and leverage technology and automation to deliver real, measurable business outcomes.”
This global study*, based on insights from 2,000 executives, shows that AI is emerging as a key driver of business growth through 2030. The findings suggest that even though many of the executives surveyed face a gap between expectations and results, future success will come from making bolder strategic bets. Key findings include:
Executives are looking beyond AI efficiency to drive future profits
- Currently, almost half (47%) of AI spending is focused on efficiency, but respondents expect 62% of AI spending to be on innovation by 2030.
- 64% of executives surveyed believe that by 2030, competitive advantage will come from innovation rather than resource optimization.
- 70% of executives surveyed plan to reinvest the value gained from AI-enabled productivity improvements into growth initiatives.
- Respondents expect AI to increase productivity by 42% by 2030, with 67% expecting most of the productivity gains from AI by then.
Competitive advantage depends on betting on the right technology
- Most executives surveyed (57%) say their company’s competitive advantage will come from increasingly sophisticated AI models, but only 28% have a clear idea of what AI models they will need by 2030.
- 82% of respondents expect AI capabilities to be multi-model by 2030, and 72% expect small language models (SLMs) to outperform large language models (LLMs).
- Organizations surveyed that scale AI across multiple workflows using small custom or foundational AI models expect to see a 24% increase in productivity and a 55% increase in operating margins by 2030.
- Although 59% of respondents say quantum-enabled AI will transform their industry by 2030, only 27% expect to use quantum computing by then, a gap that highlights an opportunity for organizations ready to act today.
AI is redefining leadership and the skills that matter most
- Executives surveyed expect 25% of corporate boards to have AI advisors or co-decision makers by 2030, 74% say AI will redefine leadership roles across the enterprise, and two-thirds believe AI will create entirely new leadership roles.
- Meanwhile, 67% of respondents said job longevity is becoming shorter, 57% expect most of today’s workforce skills to be obsolete by 2030, and 67% agree that mindset is more important than skills.
- Additionally, 67% of executives surveyed expect AI to eliminate the resource and skill constraints that hold organizations back today.
- Our analysis shows that AI-first organizations are 48% more likely to create net new jobs and 46% more likely to redesign their organizational structure to achieve more AI value.
This research provides business leaders with a roadmap on how to turn their AI-first ambitions into measurable results. To view the entire study, visit https://www.ibm.com/thought-leadership/institute-business-value/en-us/report/enterprise-2030.
As part of the survey, senior executives shared their perspectives on how technology is reshaping strategy, operations, and employee priorities. See addendum below.
*Research method
IBM Institute for Business Value, in collaboration with Oxford Economics, gathered insights from 2,007 senior executives about how they expect their organizations to evolve between 2025 and 2030. The study was conducted in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 across 33 regions and 20 industries. The study examined strategic priorities such as operating AI-first, integrating advanced AI models into products and services, transforming the workforce, and responding to emerging technologies. Like quantum computing.
IBM’s thought leadership think tank, the IBM Institute for Business Value, combines global research and performance data with the expertise of industry thinkers and leading academics to deliver insights that make business leaders smarter. For more information about world-class thought leadership, visit www.ibm.com/ibv. For more information, subscribe to the IdeaWatch newsletter: https://ibm.co/ibv-ideawatch.
About IBM
IBM is a leading provider of global hybrid cloud, AI, and consulting expertise. We help clients in more than 175 countries leverage insights from data to streamline business processes, reduce costs, and gain a competitive edge in their industries. Thousands of government agencies and enterprises in critical infrastructure sectors such as financial services, telecommunications, and healthcare rely on IBM’s hybrid cloud platform and Red Hat OpenShift to execute digital transformations quickly, efficiently, and securely. IBM’s breakthrough innovations in AI, quantum computing, industry-specific cloud solutions and consulting provide open and flexible options for our clients. All of this is backed by IBM’s long-standing commitment to trust, transparency, accountability, inclusion, and service. For more information, visit www.ibm.com.
media contact
Marisa Conway
IBM Corporate Communications
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Management perspective:
“Competencies beyond specific tasks, such as decision-making, judgment, strategy, collaboration skills, intuition, and clarity of thought, remain critical. These elements will become even more necessary in a world where much of the foundational work can be delegated to agents.” — Aaron Levy, CEO and Co-Founder of Box
“Quantum never exists in isolation. Classical computing, AI, and quantum must work together in connected workflows.” — Dr. Thomas Eckle, Bosch Chief Expert
“The future of AI isn’t about bigger models; it’s about smarter integration with people and processes.” — Jinesh Dalal, Head of Technology Development and Vice President, C-Metric
“We’re going to need more problem solvers who understand both the business and the models, people who can marry technical capabilities with business insight. That’s the future for all companies, including ours.” — Umang Dharmik, SVP and Head of IT; Mercedes-Benz Research and Development India (MBRDI)
“We are the first women’s soccer league in the world to introduce video assistant referees. We know that AI can unlock incredible efficiency and effectiveness, reducing or even potentially eliminating some of the human error associated with on-field decisions.” — Jessica Berman, National Women’s Soccer League Commissioner
“By 2030, insights will be everywhere. Interfaces will fundamentally change, and AI will serve as a business intelligence system, a decision engine, and a participant in operations.” — Chad Gates, Managing Director, Pronto Software
“Everyone in the C-suite should always be asking, ‘How can we disrupt the market? How can we use disruption to gain competitive advantage by reinventing what happens next and where we go?’ ” Maureen Power Sweeny, RapidScale Chief Revenue Officer
Source IBM
