This year, I will be inviting a variety of military and strategic experts to write for Futura Doctrina. Topics include war, strategic competition, national strategy, technology, human capabilities, and other issues germane to learning from modern warfare and preparing for future conflicts. Our first guest contributor is Dr. Frank Hoffman, who writes about the importance of aligning critical thinking skills and the adoption of AI in military organizations.
If today’s undergraduates (and future officers) make extensive use of generative AI tools, future military personnel may be commissioned with less developed critical thinking skills. That doesn’t mean it will happen. rewire our mindsas much as producing students with flabby thinking.
With all the hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), it’s difficult to determine what these rapidly evolving technologies can and cannot accomplish. Opinions vary. existential crisis Or to be less than a useless machine. Many military agencies are currently looking closely at where AI could potentially benefit them. Military officials, who are conservative in nature, have more concerns about AI applications and a lack of consensus. Nonlinear properties of war.
Ultimately, however, rapid advances in algorithmic technology will become available to security leaders, providing valuable assistance in executing strategy and operations. This does not provide traditional expertise redundant or replaceable. On the contrary, humans will become greater value than before. You also don’t have to worry about the consequences of implementing an AI-enabled system: the end of boldness In the military. But we must remain acutely aware of the human factor in decision-making.
Command has important political, moral and social dimensions (purpose, leadership, empathy) The human brain can process better than machine intelligence. However, this era also presents tremendous command challenges, such as multi-domain complexity. cognitive overloadand Accelerating temporal change That’s what we have to explain. in a certain era When seconds can affect the results“The ability to think and act faster and more coherently than any opponent” is becoming increasingly prominent. Therefore, when you explore risks and opportunities Improving military decision-making powered by AI is now an imperative. Armies that properly employ these tools hold a distinct combat advantage over their opponents. The challenge is to find the appropriate changes in doctrine, structure, process, and education to achieve that benefit.
This article addresses four questions: 1) What is critical thinking? 2) How will AI impact critical thinking? 3) What do we expect from AI? And finally, 4) What should we do to enhance critical thinking and decision-making?
Critical thinking is a key element of effective decision making. It is the basis for good military judgment. For military professionals, critical thinking is the deliberative process of analyzing an issue by examining available evidence and uncovering underlying assumptions, perspectives, and biases that may influence the decisions made. Scholars argue that self-awareness And to be a good critical thinker, you need to think personally about your biases and past experiences. Self-awareness helps ensure that decisions are not colored by one’s own biases and prejudices. Cognitive “blind spots”. A police officer’s ability to think creatively requires both an awareness of his or her own general operating framework and an openness to new ideas. openness It requires and values curiosity, creativity, and imagination. This mindset can be cultivated and trained, and much of the Command and Staff College curriculum is aimed at sharpening that mindset.
Enhanced critical thinking is a highly desirable outcome. It is also recognized as an important element and necessary reform to military professional education. The U.S. military joint leadership emphasized critical thinking in its vision for professional military education (PME). They say: critical thinker and be able to creatively apply military power…” They challenged the PME institution with a goal that “all graduates should have.” critical and creative thinking skillsemotional intelligence, and effective written, verbal, and visual communication skills to support strategy development and complex operations.
There are limits to the realization of this vision. A team of U.S. PME professors recently found the effort insufficient and concluded that the vision is not working. They compared the goals of this vision and concluded: fundamental change.in PME program was actually undertaken to achieve these objectives. ” This vision, written at the dawn of the AI era, emphasized additional education in emerging disruptive technologies.
The premise behind AI is to make better and faster decisions in a competitive environment. Our larger interest in AI is to improve and accelerate critical thinking to inform decisions. Clausewitz’s concept genius in action It is assumed that critical thinking and creativity. A fundamental premise of many investments in AI is that it enhances critical thinking and professional judgment.
This assumption has been challenged in recent studies. A recent study by Microsoft and Carnegie Mellon University found that popular AI chatbots actually reduce critical thinking. According to Microsoft research, the use of AI can:Reduced critical reflectionInstead of deeper insight.” MIT research Similar results were produced. Although the study was not conclusive, the suggestion supports alarming reports from educators. Some teachers argue that the introduction of generative AI into schools is important. “Kill critical thinking” University professors have warned that overreliance among students is diminishing their deep thinking and decision-making abilities, or AI. make fun of you. One commentator speaks of AI’s “malicious seduction.” Effortless excellence. It gives people the illusion that they can become better at thinking effortlessly. ”
Further research is needed, but the long-term impact on defense institutions is not reassuring. Over the next decade, the military is likely to see an increase in the number of new officers graduating from their education years and entering the force, and may no longer be able to skeptically challenge data output from generative AI systems. If today’s undergraduates (and future officers) make extensive use of generative AI tools, future military personnel may be commissioned with less developed critical thinking skills. That doesn’t mean it will happen. rewire our mindsas much as producing students with flabby thinking.
There is reason to be optimistic about advances in the application of AI models and functional agent systems. They will become increasingly valuable in supporting commanders and their strategic and operational decisions. But state-of-the-art AI remains fragile and jagged. However, the trend for AI as a general-purpose technology with increasing utility seems clear.
AI is currently delivering impactful results in the following areas: wartime operationsThere will be more tangible benefits for commanders and staffs, particularly in intelligence and targeting. in the near future. With properly educated leaders and thoroughly vetted decision-making tools, we can expect value from the blend of human and machine intelligence and make the right decisions. Therefore, I agree with the advocates who say that we are faced with: paradigm shift “From tools that assist humans to agents that actively pursue campaign objectives alongside humans.” Human commanders should remain the same. dominant partner In this integrated relationship.
As reviewed Lieutenant General Jack Shanahan pointed out, military command and control is best conceptualized as: Human-centered and technology-enabled. He acknowledges that AI-enabled combat systems have risks, but they must be weighed against the undeniable evidence of human bias throughout military history. After all, a properly prepared police officer can get the most out of an AI system than a team without its support. Human-machine teaming, or as some people call it strategic centaur They should be able to outperform individuals.
Although AI is still evolving and has yet to demonstrate its presence in our field, large-scale language models (LLMs) have made significant progress. There is a growing sense that AI can:revolutionize military decision-making” Defense experts expect them to assist commanders in monitoring and direction tasks, particularly in the surveillance-direction-decision-action loop. Indeed, as the founding director of the Department of Defense’s Joint AI Center pointed out, advances in generative AI will soon create a lot of value in joint programs. AI facilitates collaborative, real-time course of action (COA) development, analysis, and provides recommendations.
Such capabilities have the potential to improve and accelerate the development of strategic and operational orders, as well as the evaluation of their implementation. Custom-built LLM or agent tools are also expected to alert commanders when key assumptions are invalid or risks are overlooked. This should be extremely valuable. as mark twain “It’s not what you don’t know that causes the problem, it’s what you definitely know that isn’t the case,” he is said to have joked. A useful model highlights outdated or incorrect assumptions and challenges risks. Models may provide ongoing functionality Risk assessmentyou will be able to track it. risk appetite of decision makers. This set of contributions enhances various aspects of command and control.
Another benefit of AI models is enhanced COA analysis and group collaboration. of Decision science and risk scholars Baruch Fischhoff of Carnegie Mellon University endless discourse in complex decision making. Overly restricted rational discussion can occur within monodisciplinary organizations and cultures that limit collaboration and learning. Decision-making in hierarchical organizations where rank and experience are valued and where participants share a common background (career experience, doctrine, education) may be suboptimal. This tends to enforce norms and boundaries that can limit discussion. A good LLM can complement that and kind of play a role. red team Go against the group’s ideas. Such a system could support efforts to advance the design movement. Beyond being methodical Plan processes and facilitate creative solutions.
Finally, there may also be applications that facilitate and accelerate the dynamic learning battle by identifying anomalies in research and modified practices. Technology can play a role in supporting speed. adaptive competition As seen in Ukraine. Automated data collection and analysis creates feedback loops that facilitate evaluation and adaptation cycles during combat.
