Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed downward pressure ahead of this week's inflation report, with an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm suggesting that Bitcoin's price movement is likely to remain subdued through December 25th.
Specifically, Finbold’s AI prediction agent predicts the average price of Bitcoin on Christmas Day to be $91,040, implying an increase of just 1.31% from Santa Rally’s current price of $89.863.
This algorithm combines results produced by three major large language models (LLMs): Claude Sonnet 4, ChatGPT, and Gemini 2.5 Flash. The first two were a bit bullish, but the third thought the pressure would continue to mount.
In the most optimistic view, Claude Sonnet predicted that BTC price would rise by 5.2% over the next 10 days to $94,500. OpenAI's chatbot had predicted the price to be slightly lower at $92,301, but still suggesting a 2.76% rise during Santarally.
Conversely, Google's AI assistant predicted a 3.94% fall in Bitcoin to $86,300, predicting that the cryptocurrency would return to price levels last seen on December 1st.
Machine learning algorithm predicts Bitcoin price on Christmas 2025
While the overall 1.31% upside forecast is positive, technical indicators analyzed by Finnvold's forecast tool reinforce a more negative outlook.
Most notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) value of 44 indicates that Bitcoin is firmly in bearish territory, suggesting there is still room for further declines before the bulls are forced back into the market. Similarly, the stochastic oscillator remains below the midpoint, and the %K line is below the %D line, indicating some weakness in near-term momentum.
Additionally, Bitcoin continues to trade well below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near $96,000. This confirms that the short-to-medium term trend remains bearish, with the 50-day SMA acting as dynamic resistance.
Finally, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) and the signal lines at -1,327 and -1,674 suggest an attempted rebound, while the slope of the histogram is decreasing, leading to a loss of upside acceleration.
In summary, while AI suggests that Bitcoin may avoid a sharp decline by Christmas, technical analysis still warns that the market lacks the momentum needed for a meaningful rally, which is reflected in the relatively safe average BTC price on Christmas.
Featured image via Shutterstock
