March 28, 2025
We are constantly listening to exciting new ways AI tools can help us tackle economic issues and the productivity they bring. However, profits can only be realized if the company is actually using AI.
This post is part of a miniseries related to the ECB conference “The Transformation Power of AI” from April 1-2, 2025, bringing together researchers, practitioners and policymakers. learn more here.
Economists have sought to quantify the potential economic boost that AI (artificial intelligence) could bring about, but there is no consensus on the impact of this technology. The central prerequisite for AI to thrive is corporate recruitment. And this depends, among other things, on the technical preparation, investment capabilities and regulations of the company.
In this blog post, we first present new insights from the ECB's Corporate Phone Survey (CTS) on AI adoption by companies. Next, we provide an overview of many other factors that influence the impact of AI on productivity growth. Understanding these dynamics is essential for policymakers and business leaders to leverage the sustainable economic growth potential of AI.
AI adoption among major European companies
June 2024 edition of ECB's Corporate Phone Survey (CTS) to get ideas for the pace that AI is being adopted by European companies[1]we have included a module specifically for this topic. The results of companies participating in the survey suggest two important trends. Firstly, European companies are actually steadily adopting AI for a variety of reasons. Secondly, the proportion of employees who regularly use AI in their workplaces is still small.
More specifically, the findings have shown extensive and moderate uptakes to date among companies (see chart 1). Approximately 75% of the companies surveyed claim to already use AI in their daily business operations, among the largest in the Euro region, but most people report that less than 25% of their employees do so. The most common applications of AI are related to improving access to information or creating customized web content. Most companies say they don't intend to reduce their staffing through AI recruitment.
As shown above, the use of AI tools may be relatively common among large Euro area companies, but a recent Eurostat study highlights the adoption rate gap between large and small businesses. According to the survey, under 12% of EU small and medium-sized businesses use at least one AI technology, while over 40% of large companies do so.[2]
Chart 1
Strength and intent of using AI
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Chart A: Strength of AI use |
Chart B: Intent behind AI use |
|---|---|
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Employee share |
Percentage of respondents |
 |
 |
Source: ECB Company Phone Survey.
Note: Respondents were given the opportunity to provide answers for all uses listed on Chart B.
Estimate the increased macroeconomic productivity of AI adoption
Recruitment is an essential prerequisite for AI to impact. However, several other factors determine how these technologies spread and affect productivity growth.
First, current estimates are based on the cutting edge of AI today, assuming that AI can only be applied to a limited set of tasks in the economy. A game changer is when AI can tackle any task and become what is known as “artificial general information.” This could drive innovation frontiers and replace tasks in more professions. As a result, productivity gains could increase. Second, to use AI, companies must invest in capital, particularly human skills and intangible assets, which ultimately support productivity. Additionally, profits may be amplified when considering the ripple effects of productivity across sectors.[3]
It is difficult to estimate how strongly these factors will affect the economy. One useful way to quantify macroeconomic productivity increases is to look at the share of tasks exposed to AI and the potential benefits of each task. The estimated results vary considerably, ranging from 0.07 percent points (PP) to 1.5 pp per year.[4] Because there is no consensus on the tasks that can be automated, to the extent that it can be automated, or the benefits that AI can bring to each.
A set of estimates in the middle of the range is shown in the blue bars on Chart 2, suggesting an average of about 0.35 pp increase in productivity of about 0.35 pp per year over the entire AI economy.[5] But again, potential profits depend on the adoption of AI by the company. Using two indicators, we summarize how easy it is for a particular country to adopt AI, and explain how different adoption rates between firms interact with the general applicability of AI for various tasks in the economy.
The dots in Chart 2 show how the original estimates of productivity improvements change when AI adoption conditions are less favorable, such as in the best scenario (Blue Bar). To that end, we adjusted our productivity improvement estimates based on two indicators. First, the IMF's preparation index measures AI preparation in terms such as digital infrastructure, regulations, and labor (yellow dots). Second, the UN Capacity Index includes 42 economic characteristics and the role of productivity, such as transportation, education and institutional quality (red dot). It also calculates how factors captured by both indexes reduce the expected productivity gain. For the Euro area, this reduces productivity gains to about 3.1 pp over a decade if either is considered, and to 2.9 pp if both are (green dots).
Future challenges
European companies are slowly embracing AI technology. However, the expected productivity gains remain uncertain. Whether the advent of AI tools increases the power of a company depends on several factors. Future development of technology, wide range of use in workers and tasks, tasks,[6] And the ability of a company to benefit from new technologies. At this point, conditions do not appear to be ideal in some EU countries. Policymakers may have two ways to enable businesses to enjoy the benefits of these new technologies. First, it promotes the availability of the skills and tools needed to deploy AI. Second, we implement structural reforms that promote a dynamic business environment and more generally promote the construction of digital infrastructure.
The views expressed in each blog entry are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the European Central Bank and the Eurosystem.
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