Over the past year or so, Wall Street has experienced a wave of AI-related selloffs, sparked by concerns about everything from cost-effective competition in China to the possibility of an AI bubble. This week’s market decline may be the first partially caused by a self-published work of fiction.
Citrini Research, a little-known investment research firm, published a lengthy blog post on Sunday titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” In it, researchers imagine a scenario in which, two years from now, highly capable AI agents will replace a wide range of white-collar jobs, wipe out consumer spending, and push the global economy into a deflationary spiral.
Companies name-checked in the blog, including Uber, DoorDash, Mastercard, and Visa, quickly saw their stock prices fall as investors digested the dystopian scenario. Meanwhile, some mainstream economists were quick to criticize Citrini’s report, with Pierre Yared, acting chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, dismissing it as “science fiction.”
The reaction was the latest and perhaps most extreme sign that Wall Street is struggling to get on board with AI. Public market investors have been concerned for months that the technology would not generate enough returns to offset the hefty development costs. There are now growing concerns that AI will be so disruptive that it will upend countless software providers and businesses.
