But the next major transformation will change everything again.
As of early 2026, approximately 1 billion people, or approximately 12-13% of the world’s population, have dabbled with at least some form of artificial intelligence (AI). The majority of those people will be using it as a glorified search engine, replacing the job that Google and Bing used to do.
But that’s all about to change. Even though many of us haven’t had much exposure to AI in the past 18 months, by 2026, various technologies will change the way we live, work, and play. Work will also change. Other jobs will disappear. And over the next three to five years, services that were traditionally provided by humans will increasingly be provided by machines.
Knowledge also changes. Again, you don’t have to learn it or carry it with you. You can find it when you need it and even contribute to its development.
The implications for business and government are enormous.
Most Western governments, including our own, struggle to fund and provide health care systems that keep up with the incredible advances in diagnosing, treating, and dispensing disease.
A commonly referenced statistic is that medical knowledge doubled in the 60 years from 1950 to 2010. By 2010, it was suggested that medical knowledge would double every 7 to 10 years. Currently, the prognosis is every 70 to 90 days.
Now imagine our own health service. We struggle on many fronts to maintain, fund, and meet the needs of the people we serve. Imagine a world where you can take shortcuts. Services will be rapidly streamlined, hospital stays reduced, and diagnoses made faster and more efficiently. Day visits are an alternative to overnight stays.
Staff scheduling and supply chain management will be done differently using AI tools. There will be less waste and costs will follow. AI has the potential to transform healthcare from bureaucratic, reactive, and centralized to efficient, highly proactive, and localized.
And that’s just healthy.
One of the biggest jobs in the world is being a driver. Over the past few years, many of us have been closely following the advances in self-driving cars. Progress has been significant, and driverless taxis are now operating in places such as California. In fact, Waymo’s robotaxi service currently operates in at least 15 states in the United States. Imagine being collected in a car without a driver.
Think about it. There are currently an estimated 2.5 to 3 million full-time and part-time Uber drivers in the United States alone. Please note that taxis do not count. There are also 500,000 taxi drivers and drivers. There are another 500,000 bus drivers.
These jobs will begin to disappear over time and will eventually cease to exist, perhaps within 10 years.
My friend has 1 hectare of lawn on his property. He was paying $800 a month to have his lawn mowed by a popular mowing franchise operator. Although he was satisfied with the service, he found a better way.
We are currently seeing and hearing advertisements for lawn mowing robots. Even in New Zealand. My friend bought it and it changed the look of his property. It operates 24 hours a day when needed and mowing his entire property every two days. And the changes are almost incredible. He went from the paddock to the park within a few months.
Our country does not provide good statistics. we are too small But again, in the United States, there are 1.2 million people who work in lawn care. If we apply a pro-rata calculation, there are probably 16,000 people involved in lawn care. What will happen to those jobs?
The man with the mowbot has just downloaded his bank statements into an AI application to open a year-end account and complete his tax return. Another friend shared important details of a proposed business acquisition using the same system to create their own purchase and sale agreement, due diligence checklist, and settlement statement.
It’s easy to get excited about new technology, and AI is no different. It will change the way we live. In many cases, those changes will be for the better. In some cases, this may not be the case.
We need to start thinking about people whose jobs are threatened now. What do we do with today’s service workers whose jobs are disappearing? How do we train people whose roles will increasingly be driven by AI tools? How do we train today’s students to do businesses that don’t exist, perform services in ways that don’t exist, jobs that don’t exist?
Professional services firms are a lifeline for graduates looking for their first job. Those students perform entry-level work as they begin their careers. That introduction forms the framework on which they build their careers.
However, these professional services firms will increasingly use AI-enabled technology to perform implementation tasks. So how do you train new employees? how do they learn? Where do they get the experience to become top architects, engineers, lawyers and accountants? Every step of their career path needs to be rethought. And it’s never too early to start.
There are other drawbacks as well. a harvard business review In last year’s article, we discussed the most common uses of AI. At first, it would be logical to think that things like computer coding, medical diagnostic development, and bridge span calculations would be high on the list.
But that’s not the case. Number three on the list was the use of AI to help people find their purpose in life. The second was a quest to “organize my life.” And what about number one? Therapy and friendships.
In other words, the emergence of these wonderful new technologies is telling us something different about ourselves. In the post-COVID-19, post-political correctness generation, far more people need help managing themselves than social mental health research reveals. We have often talked about the lack of resilience in today’s generation. Did we know the situation was this bad?
What do these statistics tell us about how generations of people will adapt to the big changes that will change the way we live, work, and communicate with friends?
As with many technological advances, the widespread use and acceptance of artificial intelligence brings opportunities for progress and potholes to avoid.
That progress comes in the form of increased accuracy in everything we do, whether it’s driving or diagnosing. AI technology must support a generation strained to breaking point by overwork and burnout. It provides new opportunities to retrain and helps us all be more productive. Creativity increases and innovation flourishes. It’s an exciting place to play. Workplaces should be safer and lives should be more balanced.
Potholes primarily affect people who are unable or unwilling to adapt to change. Jobs will be lost and there will be pressure to develop new areas of competency. Learning how to learn will be an important skill for all of us.
There is also a risk that AI will make us lazy. Just as calculators made it impossible for us to do calculations in our heads, and cell phones with built-in address books made it impossible for us to memorize phone numbers, AI will make us unnecessary. As a result, we lose certain skills.
But despite all the challenges, I am positively influenced by the great changes that took place just 30 years ago. The advent of mobile phone technology and associated mobile phone networks has enabled less developed countries without copper telephone lines to leapfrog the infrastructure stage and catch up with the rest of the world. Similar opportunities currently exist in almost every industry and government service that poses challenges to us.
In a country like New Zealand, which has long struggled to meet the needs of society at many levels, opportunities like this must be grasped with both hands. But we have to start making it part of our daily conversation.
And remember, it may have taken time, but eventually everyone learned how to use a smartphone.
There is no doubt in my mind that the positives of progress always outweigh the negatives.
Bruce Cotterill is a professional director, speaker, and advisor to business leaders. He is the author of the book The Best Leaders Don’t Shout and host of the podcast Leaders Getting Coffee. www.brucecotterill.com
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