- Given that the S&P 500 index’s gains were not broad-based and were underpinned by a handful of tech stocks, they have come under close scrutiny.
- While many experts point to heightened concentration risks, others warn of an imminent market downturn.
- Here’s what the top seven voices said about the benchmark index and what’s in store for the S&P 500.
U.S. stocks are at a crossroads of sorts, with Wall Street pundits split on whether the market can sustain its rally this year in the face of recession risks.
Many top analysts point to the fact that the S&P 500 index’s year-to-date rally was not broad-based and was largely due to a large increase in stock prices, suggesting a possible decline in the coming months. I am warning you. A Few Big Tech Stocks Fueled By Hype Around Artificial Intelligence.
Veteran economist David Rosenberg says the benchmark U.S. stock index is already showing signs of a recession as stocks fall in key sectors linked to the real economy, including consumer goods, transportation and banking. warned.
Here are the latest comments on the S&P 500 from the top seven.
Mohamed El-Erian, Top Economist and Advisor to Allianz
“Today’s US price action is yet another reminder that this year’s strong stock market performance is still about a handful of tech stocks. Not only is the Nasdaq outperforming again, but so is the S&P 500. , if it weren’t for that, we would have fallen into negative territory.” # Nvidia El-Erian said: Tweet on thursday.
David Rosenberg, Veteran Economist and Founder of Rosenberg Research
“The question always arises – why is the S&P 500 not signaling a recession? The answer is yes. Yes, act like they did in 1990-1991, ‘the economic downturns of 2001 and 2007-09,’ Rosenberg said in a tweet Thursday.
Liz Ann Saunders, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab
“While the S&P 500 (blue) has risen over the past few months, the share of the consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors (orange) has not risen as much.” TweetSonders echoed Rosenberg’s point that key economic stocks have fallen even as the overall index has risen so far this year. referring to line charts).
Larry Macdonald, Founder of The Bear Trap Report
McDonald warned that the S&P 500 could crash nearly 30% by December as falling corporate profits, lower government spending and bank turmoil pose risks to stocks.
“We fell apart internally,” he told Insider magazine’s Theron Mohammed last week. “It’s my mistake that it hasn’t collapsed, but the capital has moved from these collapse sites to hiding places,” he added.
Manish Jabra, Head of US Equity Strategy, Societe Generale
“The AI boom and hype is strong,” Kabra said in a memo, according to Bloomberg. “Without AI hot stocks, the S&P 500 is doing well, down 2% this year.”
Julian Timmer, Director of Global Macro, Fidelity Investments
“Why is the gap between the top 50 S&P 500 stocks and the other 450 stocks widening, perhaps in the twilight of the prolonged bull market that began in 2009?” Timmer said recently. Tweet.
“Because leadership over the past decade has been driven entirely by relative earnings, valuation differentials did not occur during peaks (as during the height of the tech bubble in 2000), but during subsequent declines. 1973 Between 1975 and 1975, investors were looking for a place to hide and that place was the proven ‘One Decision’ stock,” he added.
John Hussman, American economist
“Our primary measure of inside market conditions is based on the uniformity and divergence of market behavior across thousands of individual stocks, industries, sectors and security types, including bonds of varying credit quality,” he said. I am in a situation,” he said. “The essence of a market collapse is essentially risk aversion with a market that has not priced in risk,” Hussmann said.
“Those conditions could change, but for now we continue to estimate the likelihood of negative total returns for the S&P 500 over the next 10-12 years, with an interim loss of around -60%,” he said. outlook,” he added.
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