Air cargo volumes continued to disrupt expectations in June, thanks to “exceptional demand” for semiconductors and AI-related hardware.
According to the latest figures from data provider Xeneta, demand grew by 7% year-on-year, capacity increased by 3% and dynamic cargo load factors improved by 3 points to 62% as the Middle East business continues to recover.
Meanwhile, the average air cargo spot rate in June was flat month-on-month at $3.40 per kg, up 38% year-on-year, but below the 41% year-on-year improvement recorded in May.
Xeneta said the big surprise in air cargo’s performance this year continues to be the volume of AI, offsetting the decline in e-commerce traffic, which has been the main growth driver for air cargo over the past two to three years.
Zeneta’s chief air cargo officer Niall van de Woug said demand growth in June was “remarkable” and suggested current air cargo volumes were “defying gravity”.
“The magnitude of AI’s impact is likely to be underestimated as it accounts for less than 10% of total air cargo volume. However, the facts supporting its role as a key driver of air cargo growth are undeniable,” he said.
“Global semiconductor sales in April more than doubled year-on-year, up 106%, the strongest growth since the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization began keeping records in 1986. This surge has made the trans-Pacific air corridor the strongest air cargo route this year, even as tariffs have reduced volumes between China and the United States.”
Much of that volume comes from Taiwan and South Korea, Zeneta said.
But recently, there have been some questions about whether the AI bubble could burst.
“Who knows how long that will last,” he said. “Although the investment cycle for AI could take a hit, which could suddenly change the demand we see and increase risk, there is no sign yet that AI acceleration will plateau and depress air cargo demand.”
In the first six months of this year, air cargo demand increased by 4%. This exceeds expectations for a fairly quiet year for air cargo demand growth.
rate performance
Although the overall year-over-year improvement in air cargo spot rates slowed slightly in June, prices from Northeast Asia to the United States rose 41% in the last week of June compared to February, and prices from Southeast Asia to North America rose 42% over the same period.
Air freight rates are showing signs of decline month-on-month globally, but freight rates on the Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia to North America corridors have increased the most due to AI-related shipments. The last week of June saw an increase of 41% and 42%, respectively, compared to late February.
Another event that made headlines in the air cargo industry this year was the outbreak of the conflict between the United States and Iran.
As a result, interest rates to the Middle East remain high, but there are signs of easing.
Zeneta said entry rates into the region from South Asia (+88%), Southeast Asia (+46%) and Europe (+79%) remained well above pre-conflict levels, but “the direction of travel has declined month-on-month as transport capacity has been restored”.
“What we thought at the beginning of the year was that global air cargo spot rates would rise by 38% in June, but we now see them starting to fall as expected, albeit at a slower pace than they were rising,” Van de Wouu said.
Weakening e-commerce
Zeneta said the push into air cargo for AI and semiconductor volumes comes at the right time, as e-commerce, which has fueled demand for air cargo in recent years, is showing signs of weakening.
The company said China’s small-value exports and e-commerce exports fell 7% year-on-year in May, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, according to the latest data from China Customs.
Shipments to Europe fell 15% and shipments to the Asia-Pacific region fell 4%, while shipments to the United States recovered 26%, although volumes remain below pre-small exemption levels.
“Some of the apparent decline may reflect a change rather than a disappearance in volume, as individual B2C parcels are moving into bulk consolidated air freight shipments, which is outside the scope of e-commerce parcel data,” Zeneta said.
And there will be further pressure as the European Union introduces a flat 3 euro tariff on all goods shipped from outside the bloc, with an additional 2 euro fee expected around November.
Van de Wouw expects the e-commerce sector to adapt, but the days of e-commerce driving air cargo growth are over for now.
Short-term trading continues to increase
Another trend Xeneta has identified is an increase in short-term transactions between shippers and carriers due to a lack of visibility.
The proportion of newly agreed shipper contracts with a maximum validity of three months rose to 58% in Q2 2026, doubling from 22% in the same period last year, while the proportion of paid weight moved in the spot market reached 49% in Q2 2026, up from 34% pre-pandemic.
Van de Wouw said: [nearly] It’s worth noting that the total callable weight in the short-term market is 50%, and is the clearest indication that no one really knows where the market is going and no one is willing to make a long-term commitment. ”
