Heat waves have been occurring more frequently in the UAE since the mid-1990s, and the rate of increase is increasing, according to scientists who have developed models to predict extreme weather events.
After analyzing more than 30 years of national weather data, researchers developed an AI-based prediction method that is said to be 96% accurate in predicting heat waves.
Basit Khan, a research scientist at New York University Abu Dhabi who helped develop the model, said better predictions of extreme weather events could allow residents to take steps to minimize their exposure to extreme heat.
Since the 1990s, the frequency of heat waves in the UAE had been “gradually increasing”, but Dr Khan said the trend had accelerated recently. The National.
“Since 2010, the frequency has increased at a higher pace,” he said. “Heat waves are the result of anthropogenic climate change, and the indicators are [from weather systems] “This is what you did to me.”
“Our region is warming at a faster rate than other regions. There are a lot of papers saying this region could become uninhabitable, which may be a bit of an exaggeration, but it does show that our region is warming at a very fast pace.”
Heating
Confirming this trend, the United Arab Emirates has been experiencing much warmer weather in recent days than usual for this time of year, with warnings that temperatures could reach a maximum of 52 degrees Celsius.
For more information on the study, which also included scientists from Dubai’s Emirates Aeronautical University and New York University, city climate.
Dr Khan said the frequency, duration and intensity of heatwaves were all increasing and this should be considered by “people at the policy-making level”.
The model was developed using weather information for the UAE from 1990 to 2022, using sources such as weather stations, satellites and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which has a global database.
The method was tested using weather data from 2023 and 2024 and was found to be able to predict heatwaves with 96% accuracy, highlighting the benefits that AI-based modeling can bring.
It is a graph neural network model, based on a graph representing the relationships between 48 weather stations (called nodes) spread across the UAE.
The model is still under development, and the researchers plan to further improve its accuracy through continued testing and refinement.
Many research groups have developed AI-powered heatwave predictions, and the accuracy of their models has improved over time.
For example, graph neural network models are described in a 2023 study. Geophysical Research Letters It is said to have an accuracy of 94%.
Risk reduction
Dr Khan suggested that being able to predict heatwaves with high accuracy two or three days in advance could benefit groups particularly at risk from extreme weather events, such as the elderly, children, pregnant women and people who are sick.
“They can take measures,” he said. “If you are planning to go out, you can change your plans and take certain steps such as bringing appropriate clothing and water when you go out.
“For businesses and executives, if they know a heatwave is predicted, [they understand] What measures can be taken to protect the health of workers? ”
Niklas Hoehne from Germany’s New Climate Institute said it was “very important” to be able to accurately predict when heatwaves will occur and how intense they will be.
“Currently we are on track [in which] Global temperature rise will double [until now]. That will definitely be a problem for countries in the Arabian Peninsula,” Dr. Hohne said.
He said the government could take short-term measures, such as providing cooling tents, in response to predicted heatwaves.
cool down
The Red Cross is one such organization that has introduced such facilities. The German Red Cross says in its training manual that “district cooling centers” can be set up in response to heat waves, “but more importantly, they can also be set up in anticipation of future heatwaves.”
“District cooling centers not only provide relief from the heat, they also serve as gathering places for individuals to gather, learn, and collectively address the challenges posed by heat damage,” the group said.
As heat waves become more common, particularly when high temperatures and humidity are combined, health risks will increase because the body will have a harder time cooling down, Dr. Hohne said.
He added that it was important to develop long-term measures to deal with heatwaves, such as providing shade and designing buildings that are less likely to heat up quickly. Dr Hohne said poorer countries generally have a harder time dealing with heatwaves.
“It’s much easier in rich countries because there are ways to deal with it, like going indoors with air conditioning, and that’s not something everyone can do,” he says.
