The Pentagon aims to increase funding for its autonomous drone warfare program more than 100 times, according to budget documents released this week, signaling a major shift toward AI-powered warfare.
In its 2027 budget proposal, the Pentagon is requesting more than $54 billion in funding for the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group, an increase of 24,000% from last year.
The budget summary says the money will go toward “autonomous remote control systems in the air, land, and sea above and below,” including the “Drone Dominance” program.
This amount is more than half of the UK’s entire defense budget. Former CIA Director David Petraeus said in an op-ed published yesterday that this is “the largest single effort in autonomous warfare in history.”
But Petraeus and others warned that the U.S. military and AI companies are largely unprepared for the risks and responsibilities of autonomous warfare.
“I think every AI company is pretty concerned about the future of AI weapons,” said Jeffrey Ladish, director of Palisade Research and former security researcher at Anthropic. Radish said autonomous systems could change the dynamics of military confrontations by making events such as coups easier and more common.
“Assessors continue to find exploitable flaws even in the most advanced systems,” said Peter Wallich, a former UK AI Security Institute employee who advises MIT’s AI Risk Initiative.
“All Frontier AI systems tested by the UK AI Security Institute in December had exploitable safeguard flaws. From a defense perspective, these flaws can put warfighters and civilians at risk.”
The Department of Defense has been in a months-long dispute with the AI company Anthropic after the company sought to bar its models from being used for mass surveillance or fully autonomous lethal weapons. In its budget request summary, it reiterated its commitment to acquiring “the latest models from America’s frontier top AI laboratories” for use across the Department of the Army.
The Defense Autonomous Warfare Group (DAWG) is a newly created division of the Department of Defense. This absorbs an earlier Biden-era initiative aimed at acquiring low-cost drones for use in future Pacific combat.
It’s unclear whether the money will be used to acquire existing technology or develop new technology. U.S. officials say the group’s purpose is to work with the private sector to test various autonomous drone systems and develop and integrate these drone technologies into the military.
The funding comes amid continued efforts by the United States to decouple parts of its defense technology ecosystem from China, with a blanket ban on Chinese-made drones and components enacted last December.
Olaf Hichva, co-founder and chief technology officer of U.S. drone maker Neros Technologies, said he sees the funding as a positive sign that the Pentagon is responding to the rapid evolution of battlefield technology, particularly on the front lines in Ukraine.
“What I’m excited about is that the Pentagon seems to be taking seriously the feedback on the battlefield from Ukraine and Centcom and from around the world. This is a clear vote of confidence in small unmanned aircraft, and I’m hopeful that it will be spent on a useful system,” he said.
But he said he wants the money to be used for proven innovations. “I think the War Department would benefit from a higher priority of beneficial autonomy. Sometimes they buy things that look good in a demo, because who doesn’t like a mass demonstration that surprises a bunch of generals on a military base?”
“But my optimism is that DAWG knows how to distinguish between good demonstration technology and useful technology that can be used quickly on the battlefield, especially in the autonomous space.”
Questions remain about how the United States will develop autonomous combat capabilities and what this will entail. Petraeus’ opinion said the United States has no military doctrine on how to deploy autonomous formations, such as swarms of drones. These technologies are being developed by Ukrainian software company Swarmer and others.
Petraeus also suggested that military leaders will need extensive training on how to manage and direct autonomous systems.
There is a growing ecosystem of U.S. drone technology companies that will benefit from this funding. These include established companies such as Palmer Luckey’s Anduril, as well as startups such as Neros, Skydio and Powers, an upstart drone technology company backed by Donald Trump’s sons.
Some experts suggest the money might be better spent elsewhere. Christopher Harrison, a former State Department Russia expert, said the funding “looks like a slush fund for Anduril,” suggesting that the U.S. might be better off working with a Ukrainian drone manufacturer that makes cheap drones in large quantities rather than with a U.S. startup.
“Instead of investing in Ukrainian technology that is being tested on the battlefield as we speak, we are helping Peter Thiel line his pockets with super-specialized drones that have never been tested on the battlefield,” he said.
The Department of Defense has been contacted for comment.
