Forget about artificial intelligence breaking free from human control and conquering the world. A far more pressing concern is how today's generative AI tools will transform the labor market. Some experts envision a world of increased productivity and job satisfaction. There is also a landscape of mass unemployment and social chaos.
One person looking at the situation from a broader perspective is Mary Daley, CEO of the San Francisco Fed, which is part of the national system responsible for determining monetary policy, maintaining a stable financial system, and ensuring maximum employment. A labor market economist by training, Daly is particularly interested in how generative AI could change labor market conditions.
Daley spoke with Will Knight, WIRED's senior editor, via Zoom. The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
You've been talking to early adopter companies about using generative AI. What are you seeing or, as many are wondering, are workers being replaced?
More companies are already paying attention to this than I ever imagined. Some companies will have more opportunities to replace employees, others will increase their workforce, but overall what I see is that no company is using employees alone as a replacement tool. is.
One person I spoke to said her company had invested in generative AI and was using it to write descriptions of products for sale. They have hundreds of thousands of items, but not all of them are profitable or interesting to write about. So we can continue to add more copywriting staff, or we can use generative AI to write the first draft of these items. Copywriters become auditors and do more interesting work.
How confident are you that generative AI will not result in overall job losses?
Technology has not caused a long-term decline in net employment in this country. If you look at technology over the centuries, shocks arrive somewhere in the middle, not necessarily stuck in the middle, but somewhere in between and where we end up. It turns out that much depends on how we interact with technology. technology.
When I think about generative AI, or AI in general, what I see is opportunity. It can replace people, augment people, and create new opportunities for people. But there are winners and losers. I came of age as an economist in the age of computerization. The proliferation of computers and their associated productivity has clearly created inequality.
AI in general, and generative AI in particular, presents an opportunity to increase the productivity of medium-skilled people. But it's our choice and requires a lot of thinking on our part.
So in theory, white-collar workers could be made superpowered by AI. How can companies enable technology adoption in this way?
before reaching forceI think you can start with educateAnd the tight labor market actually helps us. In markets where people with computer science degrees are harder to come by, companies are fundamentally driven by their own motivations to increase profits and productivity. They ask, “How can we make better use of cheaper talent?” I believe that corporate thinking naturally tends to displace employees. It's easy to think that way, but it doesn't mean it's fixed.
Companies that develop and sell AI models and tools don't seem to think so. They seem intent on AI replacing humans.
