Meta Revenue Update: Analyst Eye AI Plan, 20% Stock Increase in 2025

Civic analysts can make capital expenditures even higher as Meta cultivates more money into AI and Superintelligence projects.

“The company believes it is going through a critical investment cycle as Meta invests in materials in a Superintelligence team, including researchers and computing, and expects 2026 Capex to surprise the streets as Meta builds multiple 1GQ or more data centers.”

Analysts say that stocks are not usually profiting when companies go through the investment cycle, but the meta situation can be different as AI can improve the advertising experience for users.

The company repeats its “better than the market” rating and a $750 price target for the stock, meaning it's upside down at 5% from its current level.

Needham had a mixed view of Meta heading towards second quarter revenue.

Meanwhile, the company's analysts upgraded the stock's valuation from “underperformance” to “hold” and cited two positive catalysts.

• Increase in revenue. “Based on our channel checks, we expect Meta to be over-induced with previous REV and margin estimates for 2Q25 and 2025,” analysts estimate that Meta will record an annual revenue growth rate of 14% and a 6% equity growth rate.
• Highly productive. Meta's business is more productive than other megacap technology companies, scoring the highest free cash flow compared to 2024 labor costs.

Still, the company looks at some risks ahead of time, after preventing it from valuing its stock as a “buy.”

These include the pressure on meta margins and free cash flow, total labor costs with inventory-based compensation forecasts higher than expected, and the use of several strategies in businesses where meta “wastes capital and adds risk.”

Oppenheimer said there is a small number of risks looming in meta stock.

• Meta can have a hard time innovating AI capabilities. “Scout” and Maverick “the latest AI model for the company's Lama 4″ drastically kicked out the peers,” Oppenheimer said.
• Investors can sell meta stocks and divert their earnings to new Tech IPOs.
• Meta ads can be less effective if privacy restrictions make it difficult for companies to track user data
• The company faces competition with Google, Microsoft, Pinterest, Twitter, Tiktok and others.

Oppenheimer repeated its “outperform” ratings on its stock, increasing its price target to $775 per share, meaning a 9% increase from its current level.

In this month's note, Bank of America called the 2025 “Top Online Advertising Stock” Meta.

Because analysts seem to look the best in the company to benefit from AI-driven advertising.

In another memo, analysts said they expect Meta to beat the consensus estimate of second-quarter revenue, with banks implemented in Meta's advertising business pointing to positive checks. They estimated revenue could be around $45.5 billion at Meta's quarterly guidance cap.

The bank repeated the “purchase” ratings on meta. Earlier this month, we raised our stock price target from $765 to $775.

Second quarter

• Revenues are estimated at $44.83 billion
• EPS estimates $5.89
• Advertising Rev. Estimated $440.7 billion
• Family revenues are estimated at $44.4 billion
• Reality Labs estimates revenue of $386 million
• Other revenues are estimated at $505 million
• Operating profit is estimated at $17.24 billion
• Family operating profit estimates for families are $22.16 billion
• Real-world lab operating losses are estimated at $4.86 billion
• Operation margin estimated 38.3%
• AD impressions estimate +6.91%
• Average price estimate per ad +7.58%
• The average daily family service user estimates 3.42 billion

Third Quarter

• Revenues are estimated at $462.1 billion
• Capital expenditures are estimated at $17.78 billion

Year-round

• The total cost is estimated at $1140.1 billion.
• Capital expenditures are estimated at $677.9 billion

Source: Bloomberg Data