Jack Santa Barbara asks if bringing artificial intelligence into the growth economy has created a ‘doomsday machine’
comment: If you feel that the world is tearing up on the edge and things are getting worse faster than they are getting better, you are not alone. Various scholars and organizations have coined terms to describe the multiple, unique and profound crises we face.
The World Economic Forum is a formidable organization when it comes to talking about polycrisis, defined as the confluence of multiple crises across different domains that reinforce each other. The list of individual crises is long and includes social, political, economic and ecological dynamics that pose grave challenges to human well-being. The list includes everything from terrorist attacks to supply chain disruptions to climate change and biodiversity loss to cost of living challenges.
read more:
* energy cannibalism will deplete us
* Green growth approach to climate change does more harm than good
Other scholars talk about different versions of what they call Metacrisis. These discussions go beyond the list of polycrises and include ideas about what is important to us, our ideologies, values, and ways of thinking.
Still other scholars talk of perma-crisis (a combination of permanence and crisis).
“‘Permacrisis’ perfectly embodies the dizzying sensation of stumbling from one unprecedented event to another, with a dark feeling of what new horrors await around the corner. It’s words.”
While these scholars include many of the same specific crises that are included in other lists, the complexity and interconnectedness of the many crises we face cannot be “solved” alone. It means that it cannot be done, and that the only way to avoid it is to manage it in some way. Worst possible outcome.
They also point to the potential benefits of crisis as an engine of change, giving us a hopeful perspective on our unfortunate predicament.
There is broad agreement among these organizations and academics about the fact that we are now facing multiple, often unprecedented, threats across a wide range of issues. There is not much agreement about which threats are the most serious. Climate change is central to many approaches, while others focus on, for example, the psychological crisis and the wider biosphere’s destruction.
These different approaches to the multiple problems facing humanity naturally provide different approaches to solving or managing the risks we face. For example, the World Economic Forum talks about modifying economic models to develop in a circular fashion, where waste streams become resource streams for other economic activities. They suggest that a circular bioeconomy is a desirable goal, with an emphasis on using biomass to provide easily recyclable products.
Other approaches focus on the need for new values and goals to direct our economic activity and how we treat each other. Wellbeing approach is one example.
One theme running through some, but not all, of these academic discussions is the notion that economic models based on continuous surplus generation are a key driver of many of these crises. is. It is easy to see the links between ecological crises such as climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution, and the current predominant linear economy of extraction, use and disposal. It is also relatively easy to track the impact of the unequal distribution of benefits from the current economic system on various social problems, from extreme poverty and mistrust of governments to resource wars.
Some scholars say the problem isn’t economic growth per se, but that the levels of energy and raw materials the economy uses are exceeding biophysical limits. It is this excess energy and material throughput that destroys planetary boundaries beyond safe thresholds. These scholars call for a drastic reduction in material throughput in order to bring human activity back within biophysical limits. This is the degrowth approach.
Even those who do not agree that material output in the economy is a major driver of the multiple risks we face do agree that reducing material output is desirable. Solar panels and wind turbines are given as examples of ways to generate energy without significant climate change caused by greenhouse gases. We also focus on redesigning our products to make more efficient use of all the materials used to manufacture them.
The point of this brief introduction to the many threats that seem to be getting worse is that the lives of many people, not just the poorest who suffer the most all the time, are becoming increasingly precarious. Even moderately wealthy people around the world are currently suffering from many existential threats, including floods, droughts, fires and pandemics, which fall into different categories of crises.
Moreover, there is little consensus regarding diagnosis and prescribing for a healthy world. We have no consensus on what the priorities of the crisis are and what priority actions should be taken. There is no unified “we”, but rather a split species with vastly different priorities and recommendations.
The advent of artificial intelligence (AI). AI is a machine-based means of using vast computing power to achieve a goal. The holy grail of AI is the ability to achieve any conceivable goal through the development of intelligence so vast that it is beyond human comprehension. This holy grail is known as artificial general intelligence (AGI) and can solve problems of any nature.
Fortunately, AGI doesn’t exist yet. What we currently have is a limited AI that can accomplish specific goals, such as winning chess, translating languages, writing essays on specific topics, or creating images. One of the remarkable things about narrow-scope AI is that it can learn on its own.
Early versions of Narrow Chessplay AI had access to every game ever played by any master chess player. So it was easy to beat the newcomer. But the more advanced chess-playing AI literally learned how to play chess on its own. Two chess-playing AIs given only instructions on how to play and what to do, literally in hours he played over a trillion games. Not only did they quickly learn how to win, but they developed unprecedented strategies for winning. The AI playing Narrow Go also learned how to win this game, which is even more complicated than chess.
There is no doubt that narrow AI is a very powerful entity that can contribute to many human endeavors. Medical diagnosis is just one obvious example. Designing a separate study routine is another method. There are many more.
Much has been written about the potential risks associated with AI, especially AGI. These will not be repeated here.
But AI comes with significant risks that have received little attention so far. To understand this risk, we need to recognize that his two primary developers of critical AI are profit-focused private companies and governments focused on military applications. Each application presents its own risks.
For-profit companies are required by law to maximize the interests of their shareholders. AI presents a powerful and unique opportunity for businesses to grow their bottom line, with revenues from AI projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030. This will almost certainly not only require more products and services to be sold, but will also increase the use of energy and material resources for production. their products or services. There is little debate about whether we actually need all the new products AI might develop. We leave that up to the market and our global annual marketing and advertising budgets.
Historically, companies have increased profits in a number of ways, many of which have not been accompanied by innovation or product enhancements. These included obstructing trade unions, externalizing costs, destroying ecosystems, and displacing poor communities. Cost externalization often distorts democratic processes by unfairly influencing policy makers to give special privileges to corporate interests.
Therefore, the risk of companies using limited AI is to do more ecological and social harm and further corrupt democratic processes. It is highly uncertain whether adequate social regulation to avoid these risks can be implemented quickly enough. The expansion of AI is progressing rapidly. The viability of AI at the enterprise level clearly deserves more serious attention.
Some of the risks associated with military use of AI are already in public debate. Less focused are the ecological and social impacts associated with enterprise applications. AI is a powerful new force that will accelerate the harm already being done to the biosphere by profit-seeking growing economies. And this will come at a time when the urgency to dramatically reduce the disruption we are causing is growing as we approach an irreversible tipping point more and more rapidly.
Accelerating the destruction of the biosphere is just one of the many risks that AI can pose. But this is probably one of the most important things to deal with. Without restoring and maintaining the integrity of the biosphere, many of the other risks become irrelevant. Without the integrity of the biosphere, there would be no economy or civilization.
What is the best way to avoid this risk? Perhaps, with human wisdom, we can step back and look at what is driving our current crises, looking at the integrity of the biosphere and the web of life. could prioritize the values of preserving human well-being in Our focus on profit and political advantage obscures the magnitude of the risks we face. AI, and AGI in particular, will, if realized, pose a significant risk multiplier similar to nuclear weapons (although more difficult to regulate).
It is not clear how this challenge will be addressed. If you have never been involved in social or political activism before, perhaps now is the time to join others in a worthy cause. Regardless of what we call these crises, they will require all of our skills and wisdom to deal with them.
