Many academics, analysts, and other observers suggest that resistance to innovation is the Achilles heel of authoritarian regimes. Such governments may not be able to keep up with technological changes that help their enemies. Suppressing rights can also stifle innovative economic activity, weakening the long-term health of a country.
But new research co-led by an MIT professor suggests something quite different. In China, a study found that the government is increasingly deploying AI-powered facial recognition technology to suppress dissent. successful in limiting protests. And in the process, it has spurred the development of better AI-based facial recognition tools and other forms of software.
“What we found was that in areas of China where the unrest was more severe, it led to an increase in government procurement of facial recognition AI,” said MIT economist and co-author Martin Bellaja. After that, the procurement of facial recognition AI by local government departments such as municipal police departments will increase.” – Author of a new paper detailing findings.
What follows, as the paper points out, is that “AI innovation will take root in the administration, and the administration’s investment in AI for political control will stimulate further frontier innovation.”
Academics call this situation “AI-tocracy,” describing a cascading cycle in which increased adoption of AI-driven technologies quells dissent while also boosting a country’s ability to innovate.
This open access paper, also called “AI-tocracy,” Quarterly Journal of Economics. Co-author is his Beraja, Pentti Kouri Associate Professor of Career Development Economics at MIT. Andrew Cao, PhD Candidate in Economics at Harvard University. David Yang, Professor of Economics at Harvard University. and Norm Yuchtman, professor of management at the London School of Economics.
To conduct this study, scholars drew on multiple types of evidence over the better part of the last decade. To catalog cases of political unrest in China, they used data from the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) project, which records news feeds around the world. The research team found 9,267 violent incidents between 2014 and 2020.
The researchers then examined records of nearly 3 million procurement contracts issued by the Chinese government between 2013 and 2019 from a database maintained by China’s Ministry of Finance. The results found that procurement of facial recognition AI services and complementary public safety tools (high-definition video cameras) by local governments increased significantly this quarter following an episode of social unrest in the region.
Given that Chinese government officials have apparently responded to public protests by increasing their use of facial recognition technology, the researchers further considered the following questions: “Was this approach effective in suppressing dissent?”
Scholars believe it did, but as they state in their paper, “the impact” of technology on political unrest “cannot be directly estimated.” But one way he answered that question was by studying the relationship between weather and political instability in different parts of China. Certain weather conditions invite political unrest. But in Chinese counties that have already invested heavily in facial recognition technology, these weather conditions are less likely to cause anxiety than those without similar investments.
In doing so, the researchers also asked whether higher relative wealth levels in some regions may have generated greater investment in AI-powered technology, regardless of the pattern of protests. Other issues were also considered. But scholars still reached the same conclusion. In other words, facial recognition technology was introduced in response to past protests and has since lowered the level of further protests.
“It suggests that the technique is effective in reducing anxiety,” says Bellaja.
Finally, the research team explored the impact of increased demand for AI on China’s tech sector and found that the government’s increased use of facial recognition tools appears to be pushing the country’s tech sector forward. For example, a company that is awarded a contract to procure facial recognition technology produces about 49 percent more software products two years after he wins the government contract than before.
“We are investigating whether this will lead to further innovation by facial recognition AI companies, and it is,” says Bellaja.
These data from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also show that AI-driven tools don’t necessarily “rule out” other kinds of high-tech innovation.
Taken together, the Chinese case shows that autocratic governments exploiting technological advances could potentially reach a near-equilibrium state in which political power is strengthened rather than overturned. .
“In this age of AI, technology can be very useful for authoritarian regimes as it is not only the technology of growth, but also the technology of oppression,” Bellaja said.
This finding also has implications for the larger issues of government form and economic growth. Many academic studies show that democratic institutions that grant rights generate greater economic growth over time by creating better conditions for innovation. Bellaja said that while the current study does not contradict these previous findings, investigating the effects of AI in use could generate greater growth than authoritarian governments would otherwise. He points out that he reveals one means of doing so.
“This could lead to the case of more authoritarian institutions developing in parallel with growth,” Bellaja added.
Other experts in social applications of AI say the paper makes a valuable contribution to the field.
“This is an excellent and important paper that deepens our understanding of the interplay between technology, economic success and political power,” said Rotman, professor of artificial intelligence and healthcare and marketing at the Rotman School of Management. Professor Avi Goldfarb says: University of Toronto. “This paper documents the positive feedback loop between the use of AI facial recognition technology to monitor the suppression of regional unrest in China and the development and training of AI models. This is pioneering research in economics, and we expect this area of research to grow in importance as AI becomes more prevalent.”
Academics continue to study related aspects of the issue. One of their soon-to-be-published papers explores the extent to which China exports advanced facial recognition technology around the world, and explores the mechanisms by which government repression may spread globally. embossed.
Research support was provided in part by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program. Harvard University Data Science Initiative. and the Global Teaching Program of the British Academy.
