The long-term impact of artificial intelligence is one of the most hotly debated topics in Silicon Valley. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang predicts that every job will be transformed, perhaps to a four-day workweek. Other tech giants are going even further, with Bill Gates saying humans may soon not be needed “for most things” and Elon Musk believing that “within 20 years” most humans won’t have to work at all.
Geoffrey Hinton, a British computer scientist widely known as the “godfather of AI,” said such predictions may sound extreme, but they are not only plausible, they are likely. He warned that the transition could trigger a fundamental economic restructuring that would leave millions of workers behind.
“To many people, it seems very likely that AI will cause mass unemployment,” Hinton said in a recent debate with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) at Georgetown University.
“And if you ask me, where are they going to get the roughly trillion dollars that they’re investing in data centers and chips? One of the main sources of money is going to be selling AI that does workers’ jobs much cheaper. And they’re really betting on replacing a lot of workers with AI.”
Hinton has become increasingly vocal about Big Tech’s misplaced priorities. Speaking about the industry, he recently said: luckis driven by short-term profits rather than scientific advances, driving the replacement of human workers with cheaper AI systems.
His warning comes as the economics of AI face new scrutiny. ChatGPT maker OpenAI is not expected to turn a profit until at least 2030, and could need more than $207 billion to support growth, HSBC estimates.
The future of AI lies beyond the fog of war
Hinton’s journey from AI insider to outspoken critic highlights the high stakes of the technology he helped develop. Since leaving his job at Google in 2023 to speak more freely about the risks of AI, he has become one of the most prominent skeptics. Last year, he won the Nobel Prize for his pioneering work in machine learning.
He also acknowledged that AI will create new jobs, as many technology leaders predict. But he added that he doesn’t expect the number of new roles to come close to the number eliminated. Still, he cautioned that all predictions, including his own, should be treated with strong skepticism.
“It’s going to be very difficult to try to predict its future,” he told Sanders. “It’s like when you’re driving in fog. You can see clearly 100 yards out, but 200 yards out you can’t see anything. Well, you can see clearly for a year or two, but you don’t know what’s going to happen in 10 years.”
But what is clear is that AI is not going away, and experts say workers who adapt to it and use technology to enhance their skills will have the best chance of surviving the coming upheaval.
Bernie Sanders warns 100 million jobs are at risk
Sanders sought to quantify the stakes. In a report released in October (based in part on estimates prepared by ChatGPT), he warned that nearly 100 million jobs in the United States could be replaced by automation. Fast food, customer service, and manual labor employees are most at risk, but white-collar roles such as accounting, software development, and nursing may also see significant reductions.
“It’s not just about economics,” Sanders wrote in an op-ed. fox news. “Whether you’re a janitor or a neurosurgeon, work is an essential part of being a human being. The vast majority of people want to be productive members of society and contribute to their communities. What happens when that important aspect of human existence is removed from our lives?”
Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) sounded a similar alarm, warning that the disruption could hit young people hardest first, with unemployment among college graduates potentially reaching 25% in the next few years.
“Consider the fact that we’re not doing anything on social media,” Warner said. CNBC. “If we do the same with AI and don’t put guardrails in place, I think we’re going to regret it that day.”
