Every few months, the trade gets swept up in a new marketing fad. One day it’s TikTok for plumbers, the next it’s “AI lead generation.” ChatGPT, Gemini, and Perplexity are all the buzz in the industry right now, promising to change the way homeowners find local professionals.
But before you sprint towards the next shiny thing, it’s worth asking a simple question. Where do the best leads actually come from?
Hype and data
The latest SearchLight data tells a clear story.
- ChatGPT Referrals represent only approximately 1% of total revenue For most contractors. The leads are definitely of high quality and on average $11,500 per ticketbut the volume isn’t there yet.
- meanwhile, Google Business Profile (GBP) continues to be the mainstay of modern marketing, 67% of the contractor’s total revenue with an average ticket $3,441.
- add another 25% from traditional organic searchand you find it 92% of total contractor revenue still comes from Google-based digital revenue.
It’s not glamorous. It’s not headline-grabbing. But it’s predictable, measurable, scalable, and the backbone of how real homeowners find real help.
And as the latest SearchLight report on LLM and AI demand points out, the small number of leads that convert with AI assistance is often difficult to scale and even harder to attribute. Their detection paths are fragmented and inconsistent across platforms.
Therefore, while AI can influence high-value decisions, it has yet to serve as the primary demand engine that can reliably build a business.
What this means for HVAC and plumbing contractors
AI detection tools are exciting. There is no denying that they will play an increasing role in how homeowners research and verify service providers.
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But for now, the math is still simple for HVAC and plumbing companies. The bulk of your measurable and repeatable ROI will still be reflected in your Google Business Profile, local SEO, and reputation.
When homeowners’ heat goes out at 10 p.m., they don’t turn to ChatGPT for life advice. Type in “air conditioner repair near me.” And the publicity of your Google Business Profile will determine whether you get the call or your competitor gets the call.
According to SearchLight’s latest insights, large-scale language models are not currently generating meaningful standalone lead volumes for most HVAC and plumbing companies.
In fact, data from December shows that at least 24% of conversions from ChatGPT sources and 18% of conversions from Gemini sources had a Google Business Profile as an attribution in the campaign or media.
What we learn from this is important. This means that AI tools do not operate independently of the existing digital ecosystem. They often leverage the same business data and visibility signals that already power Google today.
AI is not an engine. It’s a mirror. It reflects what already exists online. When business data is incomplete, inconsistent, or buried, there is nothing reliable that AI tools can surface.
This is ironic. The visibility hygiene that powers Google today, at least for now, is the raw material that AI will rely on tomorrow.
Feed the future without starving the present
AI tools don’t create demand out of thin air. They interpret and reconstruct structured business data (names, addresses, phone numbers, website content, reviews, and even Google posts) to determine trustworthiness and relevance.
Our fear is that contractors who lean too heavily on “AI marketing” at the expense of basic visibility will end up chasing fuzzy engagement metrics and inferred attribution instead of measurable service calls.
This is not to say that AI cannot influence decision-making. That means it relies entirely on the strength of its existing presence and is not currently outperforming its fundamentals, which make up the vast majority of its revenue.
So if you’re already investing in your visibility on Google, you’re not falling behind and are quietly future-proofing your business. The signals that help you win in search today are the same signals that AI systems are learning from.
Continue to implement the basics that have always worked while understanding more clearly. why They are more important than ever:
- Post regularly On your Google Business Profile. Shows activity and relevance.
- Generate consistent reviews. They not only build trusting relationships with humans; They build a “velocity of reputation” that algorithms can measure.
- Get local backlinks and citations. These empower your business across the web.
- Write conversational service content and FAQs, so both homeowners can and The AI system understands you and makes clear recommendations.
AI is not replacing search. the learn after that. The visibility you publish today will determine who will be published tomorrow.
“Currently, our data shows that while the vast majority of contractors are not generating leads from LLMs, the top 1% are delivering meaningful performance. Just in November, we found that LLMs generated 37% times more revenue than top performing company Google Organic. But most interestingly, in December we saw that 24% of ChatGPT source conversions (these individuals , linked to the contractor’s website, and contacted the contractor) included Google.” Business profile media and campaign attribution rates were 18% for Gemini and 11% for Copilot. I tested the user experience myself and found that ChatGPT leverages Google Business Profiles to provide answers. Regardless of the medium your prospects and customers use to access the information they need, your focus remains on reducing friction as much as possible. The source of conversion information was GBP in 24% of conversions for ChatGPT sources. ”
That’s the bottom line. Feed the future, but don’t starve the present.
elements of trust
It’s also worth remembering that trust in digital advertising continues to decline. A 2025 study found that only 39% of consumers trust online advertising, down from more than half just a few years ago. Most users will be able to instantly identify sponsored results, and many users will purposefully scroll past them in favor of real businesses with visible reputations.
So Google has no incentive to abandon its organic ecosystem. Its advantage is built not only on advertising but also on credibility. And the revenue is still there.
practical points
AI will not create trust where trust does not exist. If Google doesn’t currently view your business as trustworthy, consistent, or authoritative, neither will its AI systems.
So before you move your budget into speculative AI funnels, keep investing where you can measure results now, like your Google Business Profile, your local SEO footprint, and your online reputation. These assets can feed your pipeline today and quietly prepare for whatever interface homeowners will use tomorrow. After all, while AI may grab the headlines, Google still gets the calls.
