Bitcoin It was down 3% in morning trading in Asia, holding near $77,000 as markets brace for a week full of macro catalysts. The move appears to be driven by caution rather than a change in sentiment.
Singapore-based market maker Enfrax said in a note to CoinDesk that traders are reluctant to push Bitcoin higher ahead of Wednesday’s interest rate decision and a series of data releases later this week, including GDP, PCE inflation and employment cost index. Taken together, these materials will shape expectations about when or if the Fed could start cutting rates in the second half of this year.
For now, the biggest constraint is oil. Brent crude remains above $100, complicating the inflation outlook and raising the bar for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish signals.
According to Enflux, the market operates under two contradictory assumptions. The idea is that geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, but that any solutions will not arrive quickly enough to influence short-term policy. This combination effectively priced in June’s interest rate cut (polymarket bettors say “no change” 95% of the time), making the context for risk assets even more murky.
In such an environment, Bitcoin has struggled to break through major technological levels. The cryptocurrency is trading around 4% below its short-term holder cost base of $80,700, a level often seen as an indication of marginal confidence among buyers.
A definitive break above this level will likely require a clear signal from the Fed that oil-driven inflation is temporary. Barring that, Enflux expects Bitcoin to trade tentatively on Thursday’s data release, with the sharper move likely having more to do with macro indicators than the Fed’s statement itself.
Looking beyond this week, less visible forces may be shaping Bitcoin’s next move. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that OpenAI missed key revenue targets, raising questions about the pace of demand for AI.
Although listed BTC mining companies are saddled with huge debts, they are selling some of their own funds to focus on hosting AI data centers, which is considered more profitable than mining.
A slowdown in this axis could theoretically lead to a slowdown in sales.
When demand for computing is strong, miners have both the incentive and the funding to keep building, often leading to continued BTC sales to fund capital expenditures and debt repayments.
But the picture becomes more complicated if OpenAI’s failures signal that AI growth may not keep up with those expectations. If AI expansion slows, miner-driven sales could ease over time, eliminating sources of supply.
The problem is timing. Selling pressure on tech stocks and semiconductor and data stocks due to a decline in risk appetite is likely to push the crypto market lower, but relief from the slowdown in miner selling will likely be delayed.
In that sense, the AI story only reinforces Enflux’s broader thesis. The market is caught between competing macro forces, and a slowdown in AI demand will add further uncertainty without immediately resolving the issues that matter most to prices.
For now, Bitcoin continues to trade in the same narrow band, waiting for clearer signals.
