Photographed at San Diego County Fire Station 44 in Pine Valley, California Fire Chief John Haggie served as a fire behavior expert at the 2020 CZU Lightning Facility, one of California’s worst wildfires. Photo by Kristian Carreon from CalMatters
California Fire Battalion Chief John Hagge expected little to worry when fires erupted north of Santa Cruz in California’s wet, cool “asbestos forests” in the late summer. This place will not burn, he thought, only three times in his 70 years there have been noticeable fires.
Heggie’s job was to predict to the crew when and where wildfires would occur, based on calculations based on terrain, weather, and fuel—an “invariant” basis. For fire behavior analysts like Heggie, the predictable and familiar are manageable, while the strange and unexpected are synonymous with danger.
But the 2020 fires were totally unpredictable.
Around 3:00 am on August 16th, an eerie lightning cell formed over the area. Tens of thousands of lightning strikes and fires started, which became the CZU lightning facility.
By noon nearly 20 fires were blazing, and there were few men available to deal with them. Fire roared in the deep shade forests and waist-high ferns of the Coast Ranges overlooking the Pacific. No one had ever seen anything like it. The fire defied predictions and remained unchecked for a month. The fire spread through San Mateo County, burning down 86,000 acres, destroying about 1,500 buildings, and killing one fleeing resident.
“It was amazing to see that behavior and heavy fuel consumption,” said Heggie. “It was daunting to see the devastation. Things were burning out of order. In my 30 years, I had never seen anything burn so violently.”
This fire was equally nasty did not do it Please—I didn’t retreat into the night.
“Burning duration increased in the afternoon, and we saw sustained high-intensity burns during the night,” said Heggie. “That’s when we should get back on our feet. That didn’t happen.”
“It was daunting to see the devastation. Things were burning out of order. In my 30 years, I had never seen anything burn so violently.”
— John Haggie, California Fire Battalion Commander
The 2020 summer fires, the deadliest fires in California history, have recalibrated what veteran firefighters understood about fire behavior. teeth as it is was.
California’s wildfires, exacerbated by climate change, especially warmer nights and longer droughts, often escalate into large fires, even megafires that cover more than a million acres. Since 2000, wildfires in the United States have quadrupled in size and tripled in frequency, according to researchers at the University of Colorado. And other scientists recently predicted that climate change will burn up to 52% more California forest area in the summer over the next 20 years.
California is currently in peak wildfire season, but despite last year’s quiet season and the end of three years of drought, the fear of large fires has not receded. Far from reducing the fire threat, last winter’s record rains encouraged lush growth and fueled summer fires even more.
California fire officials warn that conditions this year are similar to those of the summer and fall of 2017. The wet winter of 2017 marked the state’s most devastating fire season, killing 47 people and destroying nearly 11,000 buildings.
U.S. Forest Service teams are deploying drones to take photographs and thermal images, which they use to map fires and find areas where flames are still active or likely to spread.Photo credit: U.S. Forest Service, Andrew Abbitt
What baffles firefighting veterans, as well as the size and intensity of modern wildfires, is their capricious behavior—the devil’s effort to predict what a fire might do and devise strategies to stop it. It’s a feint and shift that confuses. This is a dangerous calculation. Literally in the heat of fire, choice matters. People’s lives and livelihoods are at stake.
Cal Fire crews are now often caught on the flanks. Large, unstable and violent fires require more personnel and equipment. And the staff and engines that are placed where the flames are expected to go up are going crazy.
“We are living in this new reality,” Governor Gavin Newsom said at a recent California Fire event. Told. Climate change is making it drier and more uncertain. ”
CalFire responded by leveraging all the new technology available in the event of a fire, including drones, military satellites, thermal imaging, and AI-assisted maps. Commanders now need to consider a wider range of possibilities to turn around if the line of battle unexpectedly changes direction. The agency also introduced a new Firehawk helicopter force equipped to fly in the dark, enhancing its ability to fight nighttime fires.
“We are living in this new reality. ..we are leveraging cutting-edge technology in our efforts to fight wildfires, and innovations such as artificial intelligence are helping us identify threats faster and our resources smarter.” We’re looking at how it can help us expand.”
— Governor Gavin Newsom
With the Wildfire Threat Intelligence Consolidation Center, which was established a year ago, the state puts every data point into the problem, pulling information from dozens of federal, state, and private sources, sparks and sparks. I know minute by minute how easy it is. Spreading fire.
“We are leveraging cutting-edge technology to fight wildfires,” Newsom said, noting that “innovations such as artificial intelligence can help identify threats faster and deploy resources smarter.” We are exploring how we can help.”
An unexpected raid on a coastal town
The 2017 Thomas Fire is an example of what happens when a large fire after a rainy winter changes direction and changes in an unexpected direction.
The fires in coastal Ventura and Santa Barbara counties occurred in December, when the fire season normally subsides. Fire veterans knew that fall and winter fires would be subdued by moist air and fog.
But that didn’t happen.
“We were on our fifth or sixth day, and the incident commander came to me and asked, ‘Do we have to evacuate Carpinteria tonight?'” said Thomas Chavez, Fire Behavior Analyst and California Fire Department Assistant Commissioner. fire. “I looked at the map and came to the conclusion that Carpinteria is fine, don’t worry. Sure enough, that night Carpinteria caught fire and the town had to be evacuated. rice field.”
Based on fire and weather data and informed premonitions, no one expected the fire to continue to progress overnight. And as the winds died down, no one expected the flames to make their way to the small seaside community of 13,000 south of Santa Barbara. But high temperatures, low humidity, and steep, dry terrain where he hadn’t felt a flame in over 30 years drew the Thomas Fire to the shore.
“I looked at the map and came to the conclusion that Carpinteria is fine, don’t worry. Sure enough, that night Carpinteria caught fire and the town had to be evacuated. rice field.”
—Tim Chavez, Deputy Fire Chief, California
The sudden change has endangered the town. About 300 residents were evacuated in the middle of the night as the fire moved to the eastern edge of Carpinteria.
The fire, caused by power lines toppled by high winds, burned for nearly 40 days, spread over 281,000 acres, destroyed more than 1,000 homes and other buildings, and killed two people, including a firefighter. At the time, it was the largest wildfire in California’s modern history. Only six years later, it now ranks eighth.
The unexpected raid on Carpenteria was a taunt from nature, the kind of humiliating slap that fire behavior analysts in California are increasingly experiencing.
“I learned more from being wrong than from being right,” Chavez said. “You can’t do this job without being frightened by what you see. Even small fires can sometimes frighten you.”
Warm nights, drought and lack of fog change fire behavior
Scientists say the last 20 years have brought about significant and possibly irreversible changes in wildfire behavior and intensity standards. Fires blaze along the coast even when the desert winds are not blowing, refusing to lay down at night, breaking through the so-called curtain of sequoias and covering 97% of California’s oldest state park, the Big Basin Sequoias. burned down.
Variations in wildfires are caused by a variety of factors. A major drought from the driest recorded in the western United States. Over the past 1,200 years, less fog along the California coast has contributed to nighttime temperatures that have continued to blaze late into the night.
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