Folder case with AI ethical label
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The use of predictive AI technology in small businesses may seem far removed from child welfare. However, there are lessons learned using this same type of predictive AI technology. Allegheny County, Pennsylvania Child Welfare Department since 2016. The county created an algorithm to help child welfare workers determine what needs further evaluation. The algorithm, named the Allegheny Family Screening Tool, was developed by researchers at Oakland Polytechnic Institute and the University of Southern California in collaboration with Carnegie Mellon University and Allegheny County.
The results are powerful. It’s wrong to trust them
Several independent evaluations have been conducted. These evaluations yielded very clear results. Research on this tool was conducted by researcher Katherine Rittenhouse and her colleagues. As a direct result, they reported: Reduced racial disparities in screening rates for highest-risk referral types by 83%. The difference in screen-in rates between black and white children decreased from 10.6 to 1.8. Additionally, the tool reduced the black-white difference in removal rate by 73%, from 4.3% to 1.2%. Similar to the previous study, this study showed a likely reduction in disparities, but again showed a reduction in screener processing time of approximately 5%. In these cases, the percentage reduction in screener processing time was relatively minor compared to the large increase in capital.
This system continues to be somewhat controversial. Caseworkers reported that they did not understand which inputs the algorithm used for the assessment. Parents and advocates expressed opposition to grading based on children’s performance (even if the data showed positive results) and to the overall use of the “scoring” process. Allegheny County has reduced the role of the algorithm to that of an advisory tool. The final decision will be made by human screening staff. Although this approach provides a human presence during the screening process, tools can reduce bias while allowing individuals to question both methodology and results.
New tools try to work faster
of trust fund battle The model is another attempt at the same thing, and is much younger. It plans to test an AI-driven educational software product in Chicago as part of a pilot project in 2026. Allegheny Tool works after a complaint has already been filed. TrustFundBattle, on the other hand, aims to operate much faster than that. The goal is to reach young people before they encounter the justice system. This program uses both an app and a mobile device to teach decision making and money management. Rewards awarded through this program are stored in a savings account that can be used for further education or employment.
“For decades, we have invested huge sums of money in addressing the effects of youth incarceration, but relatively little in preventing first contact with the justice system. AI gives us the opportunity to move resources upstream at a time when patterns of behavior, confidence, accountability, and decision-making are still developing,” Mark Barron, founder and CEO of TrustFundBattle, said in a statement. “Young people don’t change just because they take another lecture,” he says. “It changes when learning becomes engaging, progress becomes visible, and positive decisions generate meaningful rewards. By combining AI, gaming, behavioral science, and milestone-based financial incentives, we can make life skills education something young people actively participate in rather than passively receive.” “Prevention creates a different kind of return on investment,” Baron said. “As young people avoid incarceration, develop stronger life skills, complete educational milestones, and begin to build an economic foundation, the value extends beyond the individual: families, communities, schools, employers, and public systems all benefit.”
Actual costs are rarely shown on dashboards
The cost data shows why initial operation is valuable as a test before companies have proof. A large amount of money is at stake and, as stated in the statement, 2018 Judiciary Statistics A report on state prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 showed that 83% of prisoners had been arrested at least once within nine years. According to the Vera Institute of Justice, local governments make payments annually. $25 billion to fund prisons. On average, $47,057 is spent per individual to keep someone incarcerated. In many states, the average cost of incarceration for youth is much higher. In fact, the national average annual cost of safely confining youth ranged from approximately $149,000 per year in 2014 (Justice Policy Institute); $214,620 per year.
Hedwig Lee, then a professor of sociology at Washington University in St. Louis, said: studied how incarceration affects families. “Criminal justice policy is not just policy about criminal justice,” Lee said. “This is also a health policy, family policy, economic policy decision. This kind of data is much more difficult to collect than simple metrics from a dashboard. Similar mistakes are also seen in many small and medium-sized enterprises. Measuring AI ROI. Most are focused on immediate results, such as saving time or closing tickets. However, costs avoided by AI often remain hidden from reporting. It will take years for researchers to substantiate Allegheny’s results. These results are not measured by single quarter performance or short tests.
Both examples demonstrate a different kind of ROI: not only automating tasks, but also preventing risks. Small business owners should ask the same questions when considering vendors offering AI. Does the system wait until a failure occurs and take action at that point, or adjust options before they reach immutable costs? Tools that wait for problems to occur Later interventions can also add value. An example is a chat bot that answers complaints about a product or service. Another example is a fraud detection model that identifies fraudulent transactions after they are completed. These are examples of intervention tools. Tools designed to prevent problems from occurring are proactive. Examples include identifying invoices that are likely to be overdue so payment terms can be changed, or using natural language processing to identify potential customer complaints in the first interaction with a support agent instead of the fifth.
Differences between AI decision support systems
Source: Business AI Research Institute
AI tools either wait for failure or prevent it
The conclusion is not clear on either. Allegheny tools have years of data backups. However, the Allegheny tool suffers from the same problems that many other tools have. That means users don’t trust the content of the tool. TrustFundBattle has a great design according to your ideas. However, like all ideas in development, there are no tangible results. At the end of the day, both examples show that precautions against AI-related risks differ significantly from standard automated processes in terms of ROI. This new type of ROI may be more difficult to quantify. People who ask about automation processes simply, “What does this tool automate?” are looking at a small picture. The big picture is how far upstream automation tools can go.

