ChatGPT: Can China Overtake US in AI Marathon?

Artificial intelligence has emerged as enough of a concern that the weekend’s G7 summit put it on an already packed agenda.

For now, the U.S. appears to be ahead in the AI ​​race. And it is already possible that current restrictions on semiconductor exports to China will hinder the Chinese government’s technological progress.

But analysts say China could catch up as AI solutions take years to perfect. Kendra Schaefer, head of technology policy research at Trivium China, told the BBC that Chinese internet companies “are probably more advanced than their US counterparts, depending on how you measure progress”.

But she said China’s “capacity to manufacture high-end equipment and components lags behind world leaders by an estimated 10 to 15 years.”

America’s greatest advantage is perhaps the world’s best entrepreneurial hotspot, Silicon Valley. It is the birthplace of tech giants such as Google, Apple, and Intel who have helped shape modern life.

Pascal Huang, director of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology’s Artificial Intelligence Research Center, says the country’s innovators have been helped by its unique research culture.

Researchers often spend years improving the technology without the product in mind, Huang said.

For example, OpenAI operated as a non-profit company for years while researching the Transformers machine learning model that ultimately underpins ChatGPT.

“Such an environment did not exist for most Chinese companies. They build deep learning systems and large-scale language models only when they become popular,” she added. “This is a fundamental challenge to China’s AI.”

US investors are also backing the country’s research efforts. In 2019, Microsoft announced a $1 billion (£810,000) investment in OpenAI.

“AI is one of the most transformative technologies of our time, with the potential to solve many of the world’s most pressing challenges,” said Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft. .

China, on the other hand, is benefiting from an expanding consumer base. It is the second most populous country in the world, with approximately 1.4 billion people.

The Internet sector is also thriving, said Edith Yong, a partner at investment firm Race Capital.

For example, almost everyone in the country uses the super app WeChat. It’s used for almost everything from sending text messages to booking doctor appointments to filing taxes.

The result is a wealth of information that can be used to improve the product. “AI models will only be as good as the data available for training,” he says.

“For better or worse, China has significantly fewer privacy rules and more data.” [compared to the US]. For example, CCTV facial recognition is everywhere. “Imagine how useful that would be for AI-generated images,” she added.

China’s tech community may seem to lag behind the United States, but its developers have the edge, says Li Kai-fu, author of AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley and the New World. Order” argues.

“They live in a world where speed is essential and copying is commonplace, and competitors are opening new markets,” said Li, a prominent figure in Beijing’s internet sector and former head of Google China. We will do whatever it takes to get it,” he wrote.

“This tough environment is in stark contrast to Silicon Valley, where imitation is condemned and many companies are allowed to coast on one original idea or luck.”

China’s copycat era has its problems, including serious problems over intellectual property. Lee writes that this has created a generation of hardy, agile entrepreneurs ready to compete.

Since the 1980s, China has expanded from an economy largely based on manufacturing to one based on technology, Fong said.

“The past decade has seen more innovation by Chinese consumer-driven internet companies and Chinese high-end design,” she added.

Chinese tech companies certainly have unique advantages, but the full impact of the Chinese government’s authoritarianism is not yet clear.

For example, it is questionable whether censorship will affect the development of AI chatbots in China. Will they be able to answer sensitive questions about President Xi Jinping?

“In China, I don’t think anyone asks controversial questions about Baidu or Arnie in the first place. They know it is censored,” Yong said. “Sensitive topics are a small percentage of usage [of chatbots]. They just get more media attention,” Huang added.

A bigger concern is that the US is trying to limit access to Chinese expertise, which could hinder China’s AI industry.

High-performance computer chips, or semiconductors, are currently a source of great tension between the US and Chinese governments. They are used in everyday products such as laptops and smartphones, and may also find applications in military applications. These are also important for the hardware required for AI training.

US companies like Nvidia are now leading the way in developing AI chips, and “most companies are leading the way in developing AI chips.” [Chinese] With export controls, companies can compete with ChatGPT,” Huang said.

While this will hit China’s high-tech industries, such as cutting-edge AI, it will not affect the production of consumer technologies such as mobile phones and laptops. The reason is that “export controls are intended to prevent China from developing advanced AI for military purposes,” Ms. Schaefer said.

To overcome this, China needs its own Silicon Valley, a research culture that attracts talent from diverse backgrounds, Fong said.

“So far, we have relied on both domestic talents and foreign talents with Chinese traditions.Homogeneous cultural thinking has its limits,” she added.

The Chinese government is trying to fill the gap through a “big fund” that offers huge incentives to semiconductor companies.

Beijing’s focus on specific industries could provide financial incentives and reduce bureaucracy, but it could also mean increased scrutiny, increased fear and uncertainty.

“The arrest of Mr. Zhao is a message to other state-owned companies: stay out of state money, especially in the chip sector,” Schaefer said. “Now it’s time to get to work.”

It remains to be seen how that message will affect the future of China’s AI industry.