Applications of machine learning and artificial intelligence in construction project cost prediction: a scientometric analysis and qualitative review

Machine Learning


Abstract

Accurate construction project cost prediction directly affects investment decision-making, resource allocation efficiency, and project risk management. Under increasingly complex project environments, traditional estimation methods face limitations in handling high-dimensional data, nonlinear relationships, and dynamic fluctuations. Accordingly, this study conducts a scientometric analysis and qualitative review of the application of machine learning and artificial intelligence in construction cost prediction. The PRISMA framework was adopted for systematic literature retrieval and screening to ensure the transparency and reproducibility of the dataset construction process. Web of Science and Scopus were used as the primary data sources, from which 138 relevant articles were ultimately selected. Subsequently, scientometric analysis, knowledge graph visualization, and qualitative analysis were integrated to systematically examine the research evolution, knowledge structure, model application characteristics, and future development trends in this field. Findings indicate that since 2021, the field has entered a rapid expansion phase, with research focus shifting from early single-model validation toward integrated, deep, and hybrid approaches. ML and AI methods more effectively capture complex relationships influencing construction costs and demonstrate superior predictive accuracy and scenario adaptability compared with traditional methods. However, practical application remains constrained by unstable data quality, limited cross-regional generalization, and low model interpretability. By integrating scientometric results with content analysis, this study not only elucidates the evolution of research hotspots but also distills the mechanisms by which project attributes, design decisions, resource price fluctuations, and external environmental disturbances collectively drive construction costs. The findings provide a comprehensive review framework and offer guidance for optimizing predictive models, advancing multi-source data integration, and supporting intelligent decision-making in construction management.

1 Introduction

Cost forecasting in construction projects is one of the most critical and challenging aspects of project management. Accurate early-stage cost estimation directly influences owners’ investment decisions, contractors’ bidding strategies, project financing feasibility, and overall project success. Throughout the full lifecycle of a construction project, costs encompass multiple dimensions, and both underestimation and overestimation can lead to serious consequences. Underestimating construction costs may trigger cash flow disruptions, schedule delays, or even project failure, whereas overestimation can result in abandoning high-quality projects due to budget constraints or misallocation of resources. This issue is particularly pronounced in the current global construction environment, characterized by volatile material prices, unstable supply chains, and persistent geopolitical and inflationary pressures. Consequently, obtaining precise and reliable cost forecasts has become a key determinant of project competitiveness and sustainability ().

Traditional cost estimation methods mainly include expert judgment, unit cost, parametric models, and quantity survey-based approaches (). These methods provide reference value when project designs are relatively mature, drawings are complete, and historical data are stable. Expert judgment relies on the experience and intuition of senior cost engineers, making it suitable for rapid conceptual-stage estimates. The unit cost method calculates total costs by multiplying quantities by historical unit prices, offering a systematic approach. Parametric models leverage macro-level parameters such as building area, volume, or functional units to generate quick estimates. However, these conventional methods exhibit notable limitations. First, they heavily depend on the estimator’s subjective experience, introducing human bias and limiting reproducibility. Second, they adapt poorly to incomplete early-stage project information; when design depth is insufficient or scope boundaries are unclear, estimation errors tend to be high. Third, they struggle to capture dynamic uncertainties such as material price fluctuations, labor market changes, or site-specific geotechnical conditions, leading to persistent deviations between predicted and actual costs. Fourth, these methods are time-consuming and inefficient, especially in medium- to large-scale complex projects, where comprehensive quantity calculation and verification can take several weeks or even months ().

In recent years, with substantial improvements in computing power, accumulation of extensive historical project data, and breakthroughs in algorithmic theory, machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) have demonstrated exponential growth in construction cost forecasting applications (). The concept of machine learning can be traced back to Arthur Samuel’s checkers program in the late 1950s, while modern frameworks of supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning gradually matured in the 1990s, particularly with the development and optimization of classic algorithms such as support vector machines, decision trees, and neural networks. Entering the 21st century, the rise of deep learning and rapid advancements in gradient boosting tree algorithms have significantly enhanced models’ abilities to process high-dimensional, nonlinear, and noisy data. An et al. first applied support vector machines (SVM) for conceptual cost estimation in construction projects, demonstrating the feasibility of ML in early-stage cost prediction (). Oztekin and Masterson further proposed an integrated cost estimation framework based on predictive analytics, addressing the limitations of traditional methods under multivariable and qualitative conditions (). In construction engineering, AI/ML applications have evolved from early artificial neural networks (ANN) in the 2000s to support vector regression (SVR) (), random forests (RF), gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) (), deep neural networks (DNN), long short-term memory networks (LSTM), and various ensemble or hybrid models.

Comparative studies between ANN and case-based reasoning (CBR) methods further promoted the development of intelligent cost prediction approaches (). Compared with traditional methods, data-driven ML/AI models offer significant advantages. They can automatically learn complex nonlinear relationships without predefined functional forms, capturing interaction effects and implicit patterns that traditional parametric models cannot describe (). They are more robust to incomplete early-stage data; through feature engineering and historical project matching, they can provide reasonable range predictions even with limited input information. Prediction speed is extremely fast, as trained models can generate forecasts within milliseconds, facilitating rapid scenario comparisons during bidding. ML/AI models can integrate multiple data sources, combining structured tabular data such as floor area and number of stories with time series, thereby enhancing information utilization (). Moreover, interpretability has gradually improved, with post hoc analysis methods such as SHAP, LIME, and PDP making “black box” model decision paths more transparent for practitioners ().

Despite some existing reviews on ML applications in construction cost forecasting, gaps remain. Many studies focus on single algorithms or specific project types, offering limited systematic comparison and synthesis across different ML methods, making it difficult to reflect the performance and applicability of models under diverse scenarios (; ). Furthermore, some reviews emphasize algorithmic or model-level summaries while lacking systematic analysis of data sources, feature selection, and specific application contexts, limiting the practical guidance of conclusions (). Existing reviews also tend to concentrate on traditional ML techniques, with less attention to rapidly developing deep learning models, Building Information Modeling (BIM) data integration, and multi-source data-driven cost prediction methods, thus failing to fully capture recent advancements in the field (). Additionally, literature search scope and database coverage in some reviews are limited, reducing representativeness and comprehensiveness (). Therefore, a broad and systematic review of AI and ML applications in construction cost forecasting is warranted to identify current research hotspots, technological trends, and potential future directions.

Accordingly, this study aims to provide a comprehensive review of AI and ML applications in construction cost prediction. Relevant literature was collected through database searches, followed by scientometric analysis to quantify development patterns and main research themes in this domain. Using VOSviewer, keyword co-occurrence, research hotspots, and academic collaboration networks were visualized to reveal the knowledge structure and evolution of the field (). A qualitative review was then conducted to systematically analyze and compare the types of ML models applied, data sources, feature variables, and specific application scenarios, summarizing the characteristics and development trends of various models in cost prediction, and highlighting existing limitations and challenges to provide theoretical references and research directions for future studies ().

The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 details the research methodology, including literature search strategies, scientometric analysis methods, and qualitative analysis workflow. Chapter 3 presents the scientometric analysis results, focusing on development trends and visualizing the knowledge network and academic collaborations among research themes. Chapter 4 builds on these results with qualitative analysis, systematically summarizing data sources, key influencing factors, problem classification, and interrelationships. Chapter 5 evaluates the potential of AI and large models in analyzing complex relationships, discussing current limitations and future directions. Chapter 6 concludes the study, summarizing key findings and providing corresponding research insights.

2 Research methods

Scientometric analysis, as a powerful quantitative research approach, can reveal deep literature connections that are difficult to capture through traditional qualitative reviews (). Compared with conventional citation-based metrics, scientometrics integrates multiple tools and datasets to identify underlying patterns in scholarly output and uncover potential insights and emerging trends within a discipline (). In this study, scientometric analysis was adopted as the primary research method, while the PRISMA framework was employed for systematic literature retrieval and screening to ensure the transparency and reproducibility of the dataset selection process. In addition, qualitative interpretive analysis was used as a complementary analytical component to support discussions on methodological evolution, model characteristics, and research limitations. This study adopts a widely recognized “three-stage approach” for structured analysis (; ), as illustrated in Figure 1.

In Stage 1, relevant literature was retrieved from the Web of Science (WOS) and Scopus databases using the keywords shown in Figure 1. The PRISMA framework was applied for multiple rounds of screening and normalization (), ultimately selecting high-quality core papers that meet the study criteria as the analysis foundation. Stage 2 focuses on interpreting development trends in the field using MS Excel and constructing co-authorship, keyword, and citation networks with VOSviewer, transforming literature associations into intuitive knowledge maps. Stage 3 employs multidimensional analysis to reveal technological hotspots and the maturity of machine learning applications in cost forecasting. This stage not only systematically delineates the development trajectory and knowledge structure of the field but also provides scientific guidance for research institutions and decision-makers in optimizing resource allocation and promoting intelligent construction cost management. Collectively, these three stages create a complete logical loop from data acquisition to insight generation.

2.1 Data collection

Following the PRISMA framework, a structured multi-stage screening process was implemented (). In the initial retrieval stage, WOS and Scopus were used to search for studies on machine learning and AI applications in construction project cost forecasting. Four groups of keywords were used: (1) construction; (2) cost; (3) forecasting, estimation, or prediction; (4) machine learning, artificial intelligence, or data-driven methods. Literature retrieval was conducted using the following Boolean search expression: (“Construction”) AND (“Cost”) AND (“Forecast” OR “Forecasting” OR “Prediction” OR “Predict” OR “Estimate” OR “Estimation”) AND (“Machine Learning” OR “Artificial Intelligence” OR “ML” OR “AI” OR “Data-driven”). The search scope was limited to the title, abstract, and keyword fields, and only English-language original journal articles published between 1994 and 2025 were retained. A total of 1,944 relevant studies were initially identified. After removing 323 duplicate records, 1,621 articles remained for subsequent screening.

To further exclude studies unrelated to the research topic, a multi-stage screening procedure was conducted on the preliminary retrieval results. First, titles were reviewed to remove articles that were clearly outside the scope of the study, resulting in 361 retained papers. Subsequently, a comprehensive evaluation based on titles and abstracts was performed according to the following inclusion criteria:

  • The forecasting target must cover total project costs, not only material or labor costs;

  • The study must include complete data processing, model construction, model training, and model evaluation procedures;

  • The study must focus on the construction engineering domain, including roads, bridges, and building projects.

Following this rigorous screening, 138 journal articles were identified as the core corpus for this review. Under the guidance of the PRISMA framework, a systematic literature retrieval and screening process was established. The selected articles were annotated and their full records and citation information exported for VOSviewer analysis, enabling the visualization of networks to help readers quickly identify research hotspots, collaboration patterns, and key connections in construction cost prediction.

2.2 Scientometric analysis

This study combines scientometric analysis with visualization techniques to present complex literature data intuitively. The approach facilitates rapid identification of collaboration networks, emerging trends, and knowledge structures in the application of ML and AI to construction cost forecasting, providing actionable insights for project decision-makers and relevant government agencies regarding resource allocation and policy evaluation.

MS Excel and VOSviewer were used as analytical tools. MS Excel was employed to compile statistics and generate trend charts of publication volumes across years, revealing the development trajectory and stage characteristics of ML/AI research in construction cost forecasting. VOSviewer was used for scientometric network analysis, focusing on co-authorship among researchers, countries/regions, and institutions, as well as keyword co-occurrence networks. In the networks constructed using VOSviewer mapping and clustering, node size indicates weight, line thickness represents the strength of association, and color reflects cluster membership. This visualization clarifies academic interactions among core authors and thematic relationships among keywords (; ). The combined methodology not only maps the knowledge domain of construction cost forecasting but also highlights core research hotspots and knowledge dissemination pathways, supporting both quantitative and qualitative assessment of the field and informing future research directions ().

2.3 Qualitative analysis

The qualitative analysis stage aims to systematically synthesize and interpret the selected literature, focusing on model architectures, data processing strategies, and predictive performance of ML and AI approaches in construction cost forecasting. Key developments, limitations, and recommendations for future research are summarized.

Building on the scientometric and visualization results, the qualitative review systematically examined primary data sources, feature selection, and preprocessing approaches used in cost prediction studies. By integrating earlier scientometric findings with relevant predictive theory, the analysis identified core factors influencing prediction accuracy, including input variable types and models’ intrinsic mechanisms for capturing nonlinear relationships, handling noisy data, and managing uncertainty. Different models were objectively evaluated with respect to applicability across construction project lifecycle stages, computational resource requirements, and generalization performance. Classification based on typical project data characteristics and scenarios allowed assessment of models’ ability to identify sources of cost deviations, provide overspending warnings, and maintain predictive robustness, offering a theoretical foundation for enhancing practical utility and decision support. Additionally, mainstream predictive algorithms were reviewed, emphasizing research advances and technical breakthroughs in improving accuracy, reducing systematic bias, and enhancing model interpretability.

3 Analysis and discussion

3.1 Publication output

The number of publications in a given year is a fundamental indicator for assessing the dynamic evolution and scholarly activity within the field of cost prediction (). By analyzing the annual publication counts of the 138 core articles included in this review, the development trajectory and growth trends of ML and AI applications in construction cost forecasting can be clearly illustrated. The starting year of this analysis is 1994, based on carefully screened literature. The annual publication distribution from 1994 to 2025 is shown in Figure 2.

As shown in Figure 2, only a few publications appeared between 1994 and 2008, indicating that ML and AI applications in construction cost forecasting were still in the exploratory and theoretical research phase during this period. Between 2009 and 2020, the number of publications increased gradually, with some data accumulation, signaling a marked rise in research activity; a total of 28 papers were published in this period, accounting for 20.29% of the total. The attention of the construction management field toward intelligent cost estimation steadily increased after 2009.

From 2021 to 2025, the publication volume experienced exponential growth with a sharply increasing slope, reaching 41 papers in 2025, which represents 76.81% of the total publications. This phase clearly reflects an unprecedented peak in the application of ML and AI for construction cost estimation. Notably, the publication count in 2023 shows a significant decline. This reduction may be attributed to the severe global construction supply chain fluctuations during 2021–2022, which rendered historical cost data less reliable, forcing researchers to revise predictive features and model parameters. This reconstruction of empirical data is reflected in the temporary low in publication numbers for 2023, while simultaneously laying the groundwork for the rebound observed from 2024 onward.

3.2 Co-authorship

Studying scientific collaboration within a specific field not only facilitates knowledge acquisition and broadens research perspectives but also reveals the intrinsic mechanisms of knowledge production and dissemination (). Based on the literature database compiled in this study, co-authorship network analysis can effectively identify core authors, collaborative clusters, and cross-regional collaborations, thereby evaluating the field’s innovation vitality and degree of internationalization (). In the rapidly developing interdisciplinary area of ML and AI applications in construction cost forecasting, multidisciplinary integration has become a key driver for improving model accuracy and practical implementation. Therefore, the following analysis focuses on co-authorship networks, detailing collaboration patterns among researchers, countries/regions, and institutions, and revealing the dynamics of knowledge flow to support future research and managerial decision-making.

3.2.1 Researcher co-authorship

VOSviewer was employed to construct an author co-authorship network to reveal collaboration patterns among core researchers in ML and AI applications for construction cost forecasting. A minimum document threshold of 2 was applied, resulting in 65 core authors selected from 368 contributors. The resulting visualization is shown in Figure 3. In the network, node size represents the number of publications, line thickness indicates collaboration strength, and color gradients reflect publication years. The overall network is moderately dispersed, with several tight clusters and bridging nodes, illustrating that collaborations are primarily regional, with emerging international connections.

Figure 3 shows multiple small but high-intensity clusters. The network exhibits a moderate level of centralization, with a few prolific authors acting as critical bridges. The temporal color distribution highlights “Cheng, Min-Yuan” as the most prominent node, with the largest size and dark blue color, located on the right side of the network. Strong connections exist between this author and Yu-Wei Wu, forming a blue cluster. This cluster has been active since 2016, spanning the longest period, and its publications have received up to 456 citations, indicating foundational contributions to the field. Cheng’s high-impact work on evolutionary fuzzy neural networks, support vector machines, and hybrid intelligent models for construction cost estimation, including early ANN optimization models, established a key knowledge base. “Gransberg, Douglas D” represents a small blue cluster, reflecting early North American contributions to cost management theory.

Another notable node, “Wang, Jun,” forms a close collaboration group with Ziyi Qu and Nicholas Chileshe and has indirect links with Joon-soo Kim, demonstrating a bridging role in cross-regional collaboration. Since 2017, Wang has published four papers in cost prediction, reflecting the active participation of Asian scholars and emphasizing research on ML algorithm optimization and practical deployment of cost prediction models. These patterns suggest that institutional collaborations can extend toward Asia and the Middle East.

3.2.2 Country co-authorship

A country-level co-authorship network was constructed using VOSviewer to examine international collaboration patterns. To ensure rigor, this study adjusted the original dataset by consistently classifying Taiwan Province as part of China. Applying a minimum document threshold of 2, 22 countries were included in the analysis, resulting in the visualization shown in Figure 4. Node size represents collaboration activity, line thickness reflects collaboration strength, and color gradients indicate the average publication year. The network exhibits a multi-centered, radial structure, with the United States and China as central hubs extending connections to the Middle East, Asia, and other regions.

China emerges as the largest node and a core contributor, maintaining extensive collaborations with multiple countries/regions. The United States is another key hub, playing a critical role in cross-regional collaborations. The network shows clear regional clustering: Southeast and South Asian countries, represented by India and Malaysia, form tightly connected clusters with yellow-colored nodes, indicating particularly active collaboration during 2023–2025, marking them as recent research hotspots. Middle Eastern countries, centered on Iraq and Iran, act as bridges connecting Southeast Asia with major research hubs such as China and the United States. In contrast, nodes representing the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia appear more blue-purple, reflecting collaborations primarily formed between 2020 and 2022, with relatively lower recent activity compared to Southeast Asia and the Middle East. These patterns suggest that international collaboration is increasingly oriented toward emerging market countries, with both regional cohesion and cross-regional exchanges driving the field’s development. The regional concentration phenomenon indicates that ML- and AI-based cost prediction models are highly dependent on the data environment of specific regions. Differences across regions in project characteristics, market conditions, and data quality may lead to a decline in model generalization performance when applied cross-regionally. Therefore, future research should further strengthen cross-regional validation and multi-source data fusion to improve the applicability and robustness of these models.

3.2.3 Institution co-authorship

Analyzing institutional co-authorship is essential for understanding collaborative patterns and identifying core research forces in ML and AI applications for construction cost forecasting (). VOSviewer was used to construct an institutional co-authorship network. With a minimum document threshold of 2, 30 core institutions were selected from 225 candidates. Node size represents publication activity, line thickness indicates collaboration strength, and the overall layout is relatively dispersed, showing multiple regional clusters and highlighting predominantly intra-institutional collaboration with limited cross-regional integration.

Figure 5 illustrates collaboration among the most influential institutions. National Taiwan University of Science and Technology emerges as the most active node, located at the bottom of the network with a purple color. Despite being the primary contributor, its connections to other institutions are minimal, indicating high output but limited external collaboration. Another significant cluster, centered on Tarbiat Modares University and Middle East Technical University, with green-colored nodes, is linked to Cihan University Erbil and Lebanese French University. This cluster has high collaboration intensity and has been active since 2020, focusing on cost uncertainty prediction for complex projects such as tunnels and infrastructure, reflecting the Middle East’s regional leadership and application-driven focus (; ).

The collaboration chain centered on Qingdao University of Technology exhibits strong international integration, connecting closely with Bond University and the University of South Australia, which further links to Birmingham City University in the United Kingdom. Node colors indicate that Qingdao University’s collaborations are concentrated in recent years, representing the most active hub in this chain and highlighting its bridging role in international collaboration. In contrast, nodes such as Cairo University, Cracow University of Technology, and Georgia Institute of Technology are relatively isolated, focusing on theoretical frameworks or specific scenarios, with earlier publication dates and limited impact, suggesting that the European and North American institutional networks remain underdeveloped (; ). These findings provide quantitative guidance for identifying high-potential partners, promoting cross-regional research collaboration, enabling dataset sharing, standardizing models, and supporting industry adoption.

3.3 Keyword co-occurrence

This study employed VOSviewer to construct a keyword co-occurrence network (), aiming to reveal the core thematic structure and research hotspots in the field. The network was based on author keywords as well as terms extracted from titles and abstracts, with a minimum occurrence threshold set to 4, resulting in the visualization shown in Figure 6.

In ML- and AI-based construction cost forecasting, the keyword co-occurrence network reveals the core thematic structure, evolution pathways, and emerging research areas. Node size represents term frequency, while link strength indicates co-occurrence intensity. The network exhibits a highly interconnected hub structure, with central keywords such as “machine learning,” “neural networks,” and “artificial intelligence,” forming multiple dense clusters. Overall, the field has evolved dynamically from early validation of classical algorithms toward recent multimodal integration and application optimization.

The network can be clearly divided into five major clusters, each with distinct themes and temporal characteristics:

  • 1. Cluster 1

    Centered on keywords such as “machine learning,” “construction cost,” “projects,” “model,” and “performance” (17 keywords total). This cluster exhibits the densest links and largest nodes, representing the mainstream research paradigm where ML serves as a general framework for construction cost prediction. The focus is on model performance evaluation, framework construction, and practical applicability, reflecting the progressive translation from theoretical algorithms to engineering practice.

  • 2. Cluster 2

    Focused on traditional and hybrid intelligent algorithms, including “neural networks,” “support vector machines,” “regression analysis,” “fuzzy logic,” and “ANN.” This cluster represents systematic validation and comparison of classical methods, forming the theoretical foundation for shifting cost prediction from statistical regression toward nonlinear and intelligent processing. These methods continue to serve as benchmarks or integrated components in subsequent studies.

  • 3. Cluster 3

    Centered on project management–oriented terms such as “construction cost prediction,” “cost estimating,” “overruns,” “estimate at completion,” and “earned value management” (11 keywords). This cluster emphasizes practical engineering scenarios, including cost overrun prediction, completion estimation, and earned value management.

  • 4. Cluster 4

    Includes “deep learning,” “LSTM,” “GRU,” “time-series,” “construction,” and “cost index.” This cluster focuses on leveraging deep learning and time-series analysis to capture temporal patterns in material prices, cost indices, and economic indicators. It addresses the limitations of traditional models in adapting to market fluctuations, enabling dynamic cost forecasting that better aligns with real-world conditions.

  • 5. Cluster 5

    Comprises “ANFIS,” “ANN,” “construction cost,” “cost overrun,” “machine learning,” and “neural-network.” This cluster explores hybrid neural network algorithms for cost overrun early warning, representing an application-driven branch aimed at engineering risk management.

3.4 Citation analysis

Journal co-citation analysis was conducted to reveal the underlying structure of knowledge in ML and AI applications for construction cost forecasting, helping to identify core sources and track the evolution of research themes (). Using VOSviewer, a minimum threshold of two citations per journal was applied, resulting in 21 core journals selected from 55 sources. Figure 7 presents the journal co-citation network, where node size reflects citation frequency or impact, and line thickness indicates co-citation strength. Cluster analysis shows clear interdisciplinary integration among construction management, computational intelligence, and sustainable building research.

Figure 7 highlights five core journals in the field. Early major journals, including Automation in Construction and Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, appear in blue-green nodes. Journals such as International Journal of Construction Management, Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, and Buildings appear in yellow nodes, indicating more recent activity. Among these, International Journal of Construction Management exhibits the highest recent activity. Another important cluster consists of AI cross-application journals, including Expert Systems with Applications, Advanced Engineering Informatics, and Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering. These journals focus on algorithm and intelligent system applications and were most active in the early stages, reflecting the integration of expert systems, neural networks, and other AI techniques into civil engineering research.

4 Qualitative discussions

Building on the preceding scientometric analysis, this section provides a systematic qualitative review of the literature to examine the characteristics, methodological development, and application trends of ML and AI in construction cost forecasting. Previous studies have highlighted that combining scientometric analysis with qualitative synthesis allows researchers to identify macro-level trends while gaining deeper methodological and technical insights, ultimately forming a more systematic knowledge framework ().

By integrating information on model types, data sources, research methods, evaluation metrics, and study limitations, it is evident that current ML and AI research in construction cost prediction primarily focuses on the following areas: research methods and model types, data sources and characteristics, cost-influencing factors, model performance evaluation approaches, and research limitations and future directions.

4.1 Research methods and model types

Traditional statistical methods have limitations in handling the nonlinearities inherent in construction cost data, whereas data-driven models such as machine learning and deep learning have emerged as central research trends. To clarify the structure and technological trends of current methodologies, the ML and AI models in the reviewed literature were categorized and analyzed, as summarized in Table 1.

References Model Innovation Key findings Limitations
ANN A data-driven approach is proposed Ensure precise cost predictions
GRNN Integrate process-based and data-driven models Exhibits superior predictive accuracy for early-stage construction cost estimation Verified merely by DTREG software, no cross-validation with other tools
PSO-BP Optimize the weights and thresholds of BPNN. PSO-BP algorithm performs better than BPNN The selection of sample data may have certain geographical and timeliness restrictions
GRU LSTM Constructs the first localized Construction Cost Index (CCI) prediction model for Egypt’s construction industry Deep learning models can accurately predict economic indicators It is limited to Egypt’s unique construction industry, with restricted generalizability and a need for enhanced model interpretability
LS-SVM Deploys DE in the cross-validation process The performance of this model is superior to that of other models
KNN, RF, XGBoost Uses FAHP to quantify ambiguous impacts of cost items on the Construction Cost Index (CCI) Empirical Conclusion: ML outperforms traditional models in Jordan’s CCI forecasting Limited data access, ML fitting risks, and regional scope constrain this Jordan construction cost study
PSO-BP Filtering, denoising, repairing This algorithm has high accuracy, fast convergence, and low error Regional and temporal data limits may reduce the model’s generalizability
DNN Combined with BIM. Combining general and BIM attributes of buildings enables accurate construction cost prediction One-year data is insufficient
Stacking Ensemble Highly targeted at highway construction cost prediction in Ethiopia Stacking ensemble model outperforms the three models in all metrics Limited generalizability due to dataset uniformity, sparsity, and focus on Taiwan concrete projects
ANN Overcomes the large training data requirement of ANN models It is possible to use artificial intelligence as an auxiliary mechanism to plan construction projects, especially in the public sector
RF, GBRT Automate cost forecasting for residential and commercial projects The ensemble approach combines regression tree strengths for an interpretable model Limited data size
SSRIM MARS analyzes CCI’s potential influencing factors’ relative importance The SSRIM model outperforms comparative models in CCI forecasting with higher efficiency Poor stability in long-term forecasting
PCA-SVM Integrates with parameter dimensionality reduction and cost prediction It is the best model The existence of highly uncertain external factors can still affect the cost of GBPs
FAHP, ANN Rigid Clustering Features Enhances the accuracy and reliability Limited data diversity
Light GBM,XGBoost Established a mathematical model The evaluation findings show that Light GBM and XGBOOST prediction are superior Limited by insufficient data, inadequate preprocessing, and narrow building types
EAC-EFSIM Fuzzy logic enhances approximate reasoning It almost eliminates the drawbacks of various traditional techniques
LASSO
KNN, RF
Offer a new dataset. RR is the best model for road construction costs
Hybrid LG Boost-NG Boost Model Present a game theory-based model interpretation technique Predicted costs align well with actual costs, and the hybrid model quantifies construction cost uncertainty Limited data sources and persistent black-box issue
Random Forest Bird Swarm Algorithm (BSA) was used to optimize RF parameters The model presented advantages in prediction accuracy and generalization ability Geographic constraints, external volatility, and interpretability deficit
VMD-GRU-MHSA The research introduces a hybrid decomposition-deep learning approach It is applicable to short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasting horizons The study is limited by the temporal scope of the dataset, which covers data only up to 2023
SOS-NN-LSTM Effectively handles core sequential and non-sequential factors Cash flow prediction accuracy improved in terms of RMSE and MAE. External risk factors are not fully considered, and the sample size is limited
OMA-NN-Bi LSTM OMA-NN-Bi LSTM hybrid model for multi-objective cost schedule forecasting Better than existing prediction models Limited generalizability due to dataset uniformity, sparsity, and focus on Taiwan concrete projects
RF, SVM, Cat Boosting Proposes a two-level stacking ensemble model The two-level stacking ensemble model showed better performance than the individual ensemble models
Back Propagation Neural Network Combines gray system theory with BP neural network Gray-BP neural network model outperforms the standard BP model
GCN-AGAT-MLP Employs a gate network to dynamically allocate branch weights for feature fusion and incorporates multi-loss integration Predictions closely align with actual values Reduces interpretability
ESIM Fuses two artificial intelligence approaches Has steady prediction values
NN-BiGRU Refining the NN-BiGRU architecture through the application of the Light Microscope Algorithm (OMA) OMA-NN-BiGRU model provides highly accurate predictions The performance of the model on classification tasks was not investigated
VMD–LSTM–GRU Promoted the application of hybrid models in construction costs Superior predictive accuracy over traditional time-series and deep learning methods
LSMBM
BPNN
LSMBM determines the optimal hyperplane by moments and assigns weights via BPNN The LSMBM model achieved the lowest error values The performance of LSMBM may be affected by hyperparameter configurations.

Summary of prediction models.

With improvements in computational power, machine learning (ML) techniques have been increasingly used for construction cost forecasting. Common approaches include artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, and ensemble-based methods. ANNs, inspired by biological neural structures, are capable of learning nonlinear relationships between variables and are therefore suitable for multivariable prediction problems (). Despite challenges such as difficult parameter tuning and limited interpretability, many studies have applied ANN models to historical project data to link project features with cost outcomes, achieving relatively good prediction results (). SVMs are another widely used method, which work by finding optimal hyperplanes for regression or classification in high-dimensional feature spaces. They generally perform well on small and medium datasets with strong generalization ability, although their efficiency decreases when dealing with very large datasets.

In more recent studies, ensemble learning methods such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, AdaBoost, and XGBoost have gained increasing attention. These models combine multiple weak learners to form a more robust predictor, improving accuracy while reducing overfitting, and are therefore more stable in practice. At the same time, deep learning methods such as DNN, CNN, and LSTM have been introduced to handle more complex or sequential data. They are able to automatically learn feature representations from raw data, reducing the need for manual feature engineering and often improving prediction performance. However, their application is still limited by the need for large datasets and relatively high data requirements in construction cost prediction tasks.

Although machine learning and artificial intelligence models generally outperform traditional statistical methods, significant differences still exist among models in terms of predictive accuracy, interpretability, data requirements, and engineering applicability. Models such as ANN, DNN, and LSTM often achieve higher prediction accuracy, but they rely heavily on large volumes of high-quality data and suffer from the “black-box” problem, resulting in weak interpretability. SVM shows strong generalization ability under small-sample conditions, but its training efficiency becomes limited when applied to large-scale datasets. Ensemble learning methods such as Random Forest and XGBoost achieve a relatively good balance between accuracy and stability; however, they still depend on effective feature engineering and may be affected by regional data bias.

Therefore, there is currently no single optimal model suitable for all engineering scenarios, as clear trade-offs remain among accuracy, transparency, and applicability. Based on this, this study further develops a comparative framework, as shown in Table 2, of different machine learning and artificial intelligence models to improve the practical reference value for model selection.

Model Accuracy Interpretability Data requirement Generalization ability Applicable scenarios
ANN High Low High Medium General construction projects
SVM Medium–High Medium Medium High Small-sample, early-stage estimation
Random Forest High Medium–High Medium High Residential, highway projects
XGBoost Very High Medium High High Large-scale structured data
DNN Very High Very Low Very High Medium Large complex engineering projects
LSTM Very High Low Very High Medium Time-series cost forecasting
Hybrid Models Extremely High Low Very High Medium–High Highly complex integrated projects

4.2 Data sources and data characteristics

4.2.1 Data sources

In machine learning model development, data quality and scale play critical roles in determining model performance. Existing studies indicate that most construction cost prediction research primarily relies on historical project data as training samples. These datasets typically include basic project information and key cost-related variables, such as building area, project type, construction duration, material costs, labor costs, and project complexity.

To provide readers with a systematic overview of data sources and distribution in the field,

Table 3

summarizes the regional sources and affiliated institutions of typical studies. From this analysis, the data used in current research can be categorized into four main types:

  • Government or industry-maintained project databases: These datasets generally have high authority and standardization, although detailed dimensions may be limited;

  • Internal project archives from construction companies: These datasets offer high authenticity and completeness but are difficult to access and often subject to confidentiality restrictions;

  • Publicly published case study data: These datasets are easy to obtain and suitable for method validation, but sample sizes are typically small;

  • Researcher-collected survey or field data: These datasets are highly targeted but may suffer from subjective bias and limited representativeness.

Overall, each data source presents trade-offs in accessibility, completeness, and representativeness, which can limit model generalization and predictive accuracy. Consequently, future research should focus on multi-source data integration and high-quality dataset construction to enhance model robustness and practical applicability.

4.2.2 Feature processing

To improve the accuracy of construction cost prediction models, most studies conduct multi-dimensional data preprocessing prior to modeling. Core preprocessing steps include data cleaning, handling missing values, detecting outliers, and data standardization. Beyond these foundational steps, feature selection serves as a critical extension, often employing methods such as correlation analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), genetic algorithms, and random forests to identify key variables, optimize data quality, and enhance model performance.

With advances in digital technologies, emerging data sources such as Building Information Modeling (BIM), the Internet of Things (IoT), and big data platforms have been introduced, providing rich and dynamic information to support predictive models. This shift enables research to move from traditional static analysis toward multi-source data integration and intelligent forecasting. Table 4 summarizes common data preprocessing methods and their intended purposes.

References Preprocessing step Method Purpose
, , ; , , , Missing Value Handling Mean imputation; correlated attribute replacement; deletion of incomplete records Ensure dataset completeness and reduce training bias
, , , , Outlier Handling Z-score; boxplot + Cook’s distance; delete extreme values Reduce impact of outliers; improve robustness and prediction stability
, , , , , , , , , , Standardization Min-Max scaling; Z-score standardization; feature scaling; formula-based normalization Eliminate dimensional differences; support regularization, accelerate convergence, adapt model input
, Data Transformation Logarithmic transformation; square root; natural log Handle skewed distributions; satisfy linear assumptions or time-series stationarity
, , , , , , , , , , ; Dataset Splitting and Cross-Validation Random splits; time-series splits; k-fold cross-validation Separate training, validation, and test sets; evaluate generalization; prevent overfitting
, , , , , , , , Feature Engineering Correlation analysis (Pearson); feature importance; PCA; ICA; backward elimination; Boruta; Relief-F + MR; FFA optimization; attribute selection; one-hot encoding; VIF collinearity check Select influential features; reduce dimensionality, noise, and multicollinearity; improve model accuracy and interpretability
, Time-Series Specific Processing Interpolation; smoothing; ADF stationarity test + differencing; time alignment and frequency unification Stabilize fluctuating data; prepare for GRU, LSTM, ARIMA; avoid gradient issues and spurious correlations
, , Data Augmentation Synthetic sample generation; feature-elimination augmentation; comprehensive cleaning Expand small datasets; improve robustness; ensure data quality
, , Imbalance Handling SMOTE oversampling of minority classes Balance cost overrun categories; improve minority-class prediction accuracy

Data feature processing methods.

Handling missing values is a fundamental step, commonly using mean or median imputation. Outlier detection often employs Z-score or interquartile range methods, with subsequent deletion or correction to reduce extreme value interference; however, differences in outlier thresholds can affect outcomes. Data scaling is typically achieved through standardization or normalization (e.g., Min-Max scaling, Z-score), improving training efficiency and model adaptability. Transformation methods are also applied to adjust skewed distributions.

Feature engineering is central to enhancing model performance, including correlation analysis, PCA, and other dimensionality reduction techniques to select key variables, mitigate multicollinearity, and reduce noise. One-hot encoding and VIF checks are common approaches. Data augmentation techniques address small sample sizes, while methods like SMOTE handle class imbalance in classification tasks.

Overall, current preprocessing practices reflect progress in data quality improvement and feature optimization, promoting standardized and refined construction cost prediction modeling. Nevertheless, the optimal combination of preprocessing methods and their precise impact on model performance remain areas for further investigation, providing directions for future research.

4.3 Key influencing factors in cost prediction

This study systematically reviews high-frequency factors reported in the literature and synthesizes their roles, transmission mechanisms, and application contexts in the construction cost formation process. The analysis indicates that cost-driving factors in existing research are inherently multi-dimensional and coupled, encompassing project attributes, technical specifications, resource price fluctuations, external economic conditions, and site-specific implementation constraints. Table 5 summarizes the key influencing factors.

Factor category Key variables Mechanism of influence
Physical Attributes Building area, total floors, eave height, basement levels, structural type Larger scale reduces cost; height increases transport and reinforcement costs
Economic Indicators Construction Cost Index (CCI), inflation rate, Consumer Price Index (CPI), etc. Value transmission: macro fluctuations affect long-term investment via purchasing power and financing costs, with lag and time-series effects
Resource Prices Steel, cement, labor daily wages, machinery rental, fuel costs Material price fluctuations strongly determine base costs and are highly sensitive in models
Design Parameters Window-to-wall ratio, steel content, concrete strength grade, facade complexity Technical constraints: early design fixes most costs; small design changes amplify through the bill of quantities
Site and Environmental Geological type, rainfall, site constraints, surrounding traffic Non-productive cost increase
Management and Market Bidding method, construction approach, number of competitors, contractor experience Market competition affects profit margins, while advanced construction techniques alter labor-to-material ratios

Key influencing factors in construction cost prediction.

Qualitative analysis indicates that influencing factors in construction cost prediction are complex, interrelated, and dynamic. Project-scale characteristics, spatial form, and technical complexity define the baseline cost, forming the structural foundation for predictive modeling. Early-stage design decisions act as front-end control variables, establishing basic cost boundaries and producing a “decision upfront, realization later” dynamic.

Resource prices and macroeconomic fluctuations continuously shift the cost baseline, while site conditions, construction environment, and market competition further enhance variability, leading similar projects to exhibit significant cost differences under different implementation scenarios. Consequently, construction cost is not a static outcome determined by a single variable, but a dynamic product of interactions among intrinsic project attributes, resource constraints, and external environmental factors.

This observation underscores the advantage of ML and AI in cost prediction. Beyond stronger fitting ability, these methods overcome the limitations of traditional approaches that rely on linear relationships or single mechanisms. They are capable of capturing complex, nonlinear interactions, cross-variable dependencies, and temporal propagation patterns among multiple factors, aligning more closely with the true mechanisms underlying construction cost formation.

4.4 Model performance evaluation

The evaluation of construction cost prediction models requires a multi-indicator, multi-level approach tailored to the characteristics of the prediction task and the data. Existing studies generally assess model performance using two core strategies: error quantification and generalization capability verification.

For error measurement, commonly used metrics include Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). These metrics are widely applied due to their simplicity and clear physical interpretation. RMSE, in particular, is sensitive to extreme errors, making it well-suited for complex projects with large cost fluctuations. For instance, Ali Z.H. et al. employed RMSE to validate the performance of an XGBoost model, demonstrating its effectiveness in identifying extreme cost deviations and achieving a high-precision prediction with ().

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) standardizes predictions to remove dimensional effects, providing an intuitive measure of relative deviation between predicted and actual costs. This metric is particularly useful for comparing models across projects of varying scale. Salahaldain Z. et al. used MAPE to standardize the evaluation of prediction accuracy between SVM and ANN models (). To address the non-normal distribution often observed in cost data, some studies incorporate Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) or Median Absolute Deviation (Med AD) to reduce the influence of outliers and enhance robustness ().

Generalization capability is typically assessed according to data characteristics and study design. For static cross-sectional data, K-fold cross-validation (K-fold CV) randomly partitions datasets into training and validation subsets and iteratively evaluates model performance, mitigating overfitting from a single data split. Ten-fold CV is widely adopted as it balances bias and variance (). Shen Y. applied this method to compare the generalization performance of SVM and KNN regression models for construction cost estimation ().

For time-series cost data, time-series split validation preserves chronological order, simulating the “future data unknown” scenario in real project forecasting. This approach aligns with the dynamic evolution of construction costs over a project lifecycle (). Some high-sample studies additionally use leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) to maximize data utilization, though computational costs limit its application to small-sample, specialized cost prediction tasks ().

Overall, current performance evaluation practices combine foundational error metrics with scenario-based generalization assessments, providing a unified framework for comparing the effectiveness of different ML and AI models in construction cost prediction.

5 Current applications and future outlook

5.1 Application progress

ML and AI applications in construction cost prediction have progressed from theoretical validation to practical implementation, forming a technical ecosystem that spans the full project lifecycle and adapts to diverse scenarios.

In early-stage project decision-making, rapid estimation tools based on ANN, SVM, and related models are widely used in conceptual design and bidding stages. By integrating core parameters such as building area and structural type, these tools can deliver minute-level cost estimates with prediction errors typically controlled within 10%–15%, significantly improving decision efficiency.

For specialized projects such as residential buildings, highways, and tunnels, domain-adapted models have emerged. Examples include GRU/LSTM-based highway cost index forecasting models and high-rise building cost estimation systems integrated with BIM attributes. These models have been validated in infrastructure projects across Egypt, South Korea, and China, demonstrating strong scenario adaptability (; ).

In dynamic cost control and risk warning, ensemble and hybrid models overcome the limitations of traditional static predictions. Hybrid models combining XGBoost with simulated annealing and EVM-based completion cost prediction frameworks integrate real-time data such as construction progress and resource price fluctuations, enabling early risk detection and reducing prediction errors by more than 50% compared with conventional methods (; ).

Moreover, interpretable AI techniques enhance model transparency. Tools such as SHAP and LIME have been applied in green building cost prediction, not only improving accuracy but also enabling decision-makers to identify key cost drivers, providing quantitative support for design optimization and cost control (; ).

At the data integration level, the deep fusion of BIM with ML is a prominent trend. By extracting geometric parameters and project attributes from BIM models, digital twin–based cost prediction systems have been implemented in large commercial building projects, enabling dynamic cost updates and multi-scenario comparisons ().

5.2 Limitations

Despite significant advances in applying ML and AI to construction cost prediction, practical implementation still faces multi-dimensional limitations. As summarized in Table 6, data-related constraints are prominent. Many studies rely on single-project or small-sample datasets—for example, some analyses use only 320 regional samples—resulting in markedly higher MAPE values when models are generalized across regions. Furthermore, data are often concentrated within a single country or region, lacking cross-regional validation. Construction datasets also typically contain approximately 7% missing values and 5% outliers, directly impacting model training efficiency and stability (; ; ; ).

References Research aspect Major limitation Specific manifestation
Data Limited dataset size Most studies rely on single-project or small-sample datasets, reducing generalizability
Data Quality Missing values and noise Construction datasets contain missing, inconsistent, or anomalous values affecting model stability
Data Source Regional concentration Data are often from a single country/region, lacking cross-regional validation
Feature Engineering Expert-dependent selection Variable selection largely relies on expert experience, lacking automated mechanisms
Model Method Black-box problem Deep learning models (e.g., ANN, DL) have low interpretability
Model Generalization Poor cross-project adaptation Models perform inconsistently across different project types (residential/infrastructure)
Model Comparison Lack of unified evaluation Studies use different metrics (RMSE, MAE, MAPE), complicating comparisons
Temporal Factors Ignored dynamics Most models are static, not considering time-series variation
Risk Factors Insufficient uncertainty modeling External factors such as policy or market fluctuations are underrepresented
Ensemble Methods High complexity Ensemble models improve accuracy but incur high computational cost and implementation difficulty

Limitations of existing studies.

At the model-method level, deep learning models exhibit a pronounced “black box” problem. Only 23% of construction management professionals can interpret DNN decision logic. Ensemble models, while improving accuracy, incur high computational costs; some hybrid models have over 1,000 parameters, creating hardware and cost barriers for small- and medium-sized enterprises. Feature selection remains largely dependent on expert experience, lacking automated mechanisms, which further limits practical deployment (; ).

From the application-adaptation perspective, models often show poor cross-project generalization. Performance varies substantially between residential and infrastructure projects, and most models are static, failing to adequately account for temporal dynamics such as material price fluctuations or inflation. Modeling of external uncertainties, including policy or market volatility, is insufficient (; ).

Evaluation consistency is another limitation. Studies employ different core metrics—RMSE, MAE, MAPE—and adopt varying dataset split ratios, making horizontal comparison of model performance difficult. Collectively, these constraints constitute the main bottlenecks in current applications, highlighting the need for targeted solutions to enhance practical value.

5.3 Future directions

To address current limitations in data availability, model performance, and practical implementation, and to align with the rapid development of artificial intelligence technologies and the intelligent transformation of the construction industry, future research should focus on establishing an integrated “data–model–scenario–deployment” framework. Based on the qualitative analysis of the reviewed literature, Table 7 summarizes potential strategies for overcoming the major challenges identified in current studies.

References Research gap Key technology Future development pathway
Small-sample issue Data augmentation, transfer learning Use transfer learning to enhance cross-project capability
Data silos Multi-source data fusion Integrate BIM, GIS, IoT, and other multi-source data
Black-box problem Explainable AI (XAI) Improve model transparency and decision reliability
Limited sample size Longer historical data collection Extend fatality records to enlarge the dataset
Weak generalization Federated learning Enable cross-organization data sharing and model training
Feature selection depends on expertise Automated feature engineering Apply AutoML for variable selection and model optimization
Insufficient risk modeling Uncertainty quantification Combine Bayesian or probabilistic approaches
Static prediction Temporal modeling Apply LSTM and Transformer for dynamic forecasting
Limited adaptability to sudden shocks Probabilistic forecasting and anomaly detection Incorporate scenario analysis, stress testing, and change-point detection
Single model limitation Ensemble learning Develop hybrid models
Poor industry adaptation Domain knowledge integration Embed engineering management knowledge into models
Limited hyperparameter optimization Advanced metaheuristic optimization Compare alternative metaheuristic algorithms
Difficulty in deployment Digital twin technology Build real-time cost prediction and decision support systems

Proposed future development pathways.

Small-sample limitations and regional data constraints can be mitigated through data augmentation techniques such as Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) and transfer learning, which help expand datasets and transfer knowledge across different project contexts, thereby supporting applications in specialized projects and data-scarce regions (). In addition, federated learning frameworks can facilitate cross-institutional data collaboration while preserving data privacy, enabling the integration of multi-source datasets (). The fusion of multimodal data derived from Building Information Modeling (BIM), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and the Internet of Things (IoT) can further promote the establishment of unified data standards and support the deep integration of static and dynamic project information ().

In terms of model optimization, the integration of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques with domain-specific knowledge graphs can improve model interpretability by quantifying feature contributions through methods such as SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values (). Furthermore, Transformer- and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based temporal models are capable of capturing dynamic factors, including fluctuations in material prices and market conditions. Hybrid ensemble learning frameworks and Automated Machine Learning (AutoML)-based feature engineering can reduce reliance on expert experience while improving the generalization ability of prediction models across different project types ().

For risk management and uncertainty analysis, Bayesian approaches and probabilistic prediction models can be employed to quantify uncertainty in construction cost estimation. Combined with risk-oriented knowledge graphs, these approaches can support the development of full-lifecycle early warning systems for identifying and predicting potential cost overruns (). At the deployment stage, lightweight models combined with parameter pruning techniques can reduce computational and hardware requirements, thereby improving practical applicability in real-world engineering environments (). Moreover, embedding domain knowledge graphs into intelligent prediction systems can enable both cost prediction and optimization-oriented decision support (). Digital twin-driven decision-making systems also have significant potential for enabling dynamic cost monitoring and management throughout the entire project lifecycle ().

Overall, future research should emphasize four key principles: data integration, model transparency, risk quantification, and scenario-oriented applications. Strengthening interdisciplinary collaboration, promoting industry-wide data sharing and standardization, and accelerating the transition from laboratory research to engineering practice will provide comprehensive support for the intelligent development of construction cost management.

6 Conclusion

This study systematically reviewed the research progress of ML and AI in construction cost prediction from 1994 to 2025 by combining scientometric analysis with qualitative synthesis. A total of 138 high-quality journal articles were identified through the Web of Science Core Collection. Using VOSviewer, co-occurrence networks of authors, countries, institutions, and keywords were constructed, revealing the development trajectory, collaboration patterns, and knowledge structure of the field. The research evolution can be characterized by three stages: initial exploration (1994–2008), steady development (2009–2020), and rapid growth (2021–2025). The current research framework centers on ML, with neural networks, ensemble learning, and deep learning as major technical pathways. Key contributors include countries such as China, the United States, and South Korea, as well as institutions like National Taiwan University of Science and Technology and Hanyang University.

Qualitative analysis indicates that key factors influencing construction cost prediction can be categorized into six dimensions: project physical attributes, macroeconomic indicators, resource prices, design parameters, site and environmental conditions, and management and market factors. These factors jointly determine project costs through complex nonlinear relationships and transmission mechanisms. At the technical level, data preprocessing has evolved into a standardized workflow encompassing missing value imputation, outlier detection, normalization, and feature engineering. Model performance evaluation integrates error quantification and generalization validation, providing a unified benchmark for comparing different predictive approaches. Current applications demonstrate substantial improvements in prediction accuracy compared with traditional methods, supporting early-stage estimation, dynamic cost control, and risk warning. Nevertheless, challenges remain, including insufficient data quality, limited interpretability, and weak cross-project generalization.

Future research should focus on four key directions: improving data sharing and quality, integrating multi-source datasets, enhancing model interpretability, and developing dynamic adaptation and risk modeling capabilities. Emerging technologies such as transfer learning, digital twins, explainable AI (XAI), and federated learning offer avenues to overcome these limitations. Strengthening industry collaboration and standardization, including shared datasets, unified evaluation metrics, and deployable engineering tools, will facilitate the transition from laboratory research to practical implementation.

By providing a comprehensive review of current research status and development trends, this study offers a clear knowledge framework and highlights priority directions for future investigation. It also provides theoretical guidance and practical insights for the intelligent transformation of construction cost management. As AI technologies continue to evolve and the digitalization of the construction industry advances, ML and AI applications in cost prediction are expected to become increasingly sophisticated and scalable, supporting lifecycle cost optimization and evidence-based decision-making in construction projects.

Statements

Data availability statement

The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article/supplementary material, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.

Author contributions

WZ: Writing – review and editing, Writing – original draft.

Funding

The author(s) declared that financial support was not received for this work and/or its publication.

Conflict of interest

The author(s) declared that this work was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Generative AI statement

The author(s) declared that generative AI was not used in the creation of this manuscript.

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Summary

Keywords

artificial intelligence, construction engineering, cost prediction, machine learning, scientometric analysis, VOSviewer

Citation

Zhang W (2026) Applications of machine learning and artificial intelligence in construction project cost prediction: a scientometric analysis and qualitative review. Front. Built Environ. 12:1867673. doi: 10.3389/fbuil.2026.1867673

Updates

Copyright

*Correspondence: Wenyao Zhang, zhangwenyao@stu.qut.edu.cn

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All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.



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